12th Annual Library Leadership Institute Library Leadership in the Asia Pacific Century

1. 12th Annual Library Leadership Institute • Library Leadership in the Asia Pacific Century • Shanghai, 16-20 May 2014 • Strategic Planning: Skills Development using a Scenario Planning Process • 策略規劃：透過情境規劃過程發展技能 Howard Amos University Librarian University of Otago

2. Scenario Planning • Aim: build understanding of planning strategies • Outcome: understand role scenario planning can play • Approach: sharing knowledge & development of a • scenario planning approach

3. Session outline • 14:00 – 14:45 Presentation • 14:45 – 15:10 Group Activity • 15:10 – 15:20 Feedback • 15:20 – 15:30 Summary

4. Disclaimer

5. Deconstruction • What do we mean by Planning • What is Strategic Planning • What is Scenario Planning • How does skills development come into the picture • Why should we care

6. Why should we care • “What can we do as academic librarians to better prepare ourselves for what is certainly an uncertain future? We just have to think more entrepreneurially and look for these opportunities.” – Steve Bell Vice President/President Elect Association of College and Research Libraries March 2012 • “Libraries cannot remain relevant institutions by being meaningless middlemen who serve no purpose.“ - Eric Van de Velde blogger scitechsociety.blogspot.com/ • “unless we give our funding bodies better and more compelling reasons to support libraries, they will be forced by economic reality to stop doing so.” – Rick Anderson Scholarly Kitchen blogger and Interim Dean of the J. Willard Marriott Library at the University of Utah. • “Academiclibraries must develop the staff needed to meet new challenges through creative approaches to hiring new personnel and deploying/retraining existing staff.” - • A review of the trends and issues affecting academic libraries in higher education • ACRL Research Planning and Review Committee

7. What is Planning • If you don't know where you are going,you'll end up someplace else.” • ― Yogi Berra • “Failing to plan is planning to fail” • ― Alan Lakein

8. What is Planning • Part of what management is: • organising • resourcing [staffing] • leading [control] • directing • planning • Koontz, Harold and O'Donnell, Cyril (1959)..

9. Planning • In organizations, planning is a management process, concerned with defining goals for company's future direction and determining on the missions and resources to achieve those targets. • Knowledge is the essential ingredient

10. Knowledge • Things we know we know • Things we know we don’t know • Things we don’t know we don’t know

11. What is Strategic Planning • Identify and confirm intended/desired outcomes • Clearly define objectives • Means we can set priorities • Establish common goals • Demonstrate alignment

12. What is Strategic Planning • Assessment of the environment • Formulate a high level plan • Operational planning • - objectives & action items • Evaluations, review & refinement

13. Strategic Planning • Environmental scan • trend spotting • internal & external • Where is the library? • Demonstrate effectiveness

14. So I’ve got a Strategic Plan We know where we are going BUT: What if the goal post move How do we prepare for the unexpected

15. How do we anticipate change • Move from reactive to proactive • Flexible decision-making tool • Relevant to who and what we are • “Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!” • Lewis Carroll, Alice Through the Looking Glass • “The future you have, tomorrow, won't be the same future you had, yesterday.” • - Chuck Palahniuk, Rant

16. What is Scenario Planning • Genesis from military strategic studies • Herman Kahn – “think the unthinkable” • Business tool in the 1960’s & 1970’s • Pierre Wack • – long range planning at Royal Dutch Shell

17. What is Scenario Planning • Not about predicting the future • Provides a framework to: • focus on different possibilities • include uncertainties in planning • what we don’t know that we don’t know • Explore multiple plausible futures • Develop feasible strategic plans

18. How does it work • Use known trends to develop different possible future states • Create a series of different futures • Refine to 3 - 5 scenarios & expand • Knowledge exchange & responsiveness • Develop strategies & options

19. How To…: ‘A Step-by-Step Guide’ • Scoping • Trend Analysis • PESTLE • Create Scenarios • Generate Options • Review Options • Action Plan http://www.jiscinfonet.ac.uk/infokits/scenario-planning

20. Scenario Planning in action rossdawsonblog.com/weblog/archives/2012/03/scenario-planning-in-action-what-why-success-factors-and-process.html

21. Characteristics of scenarios • They come in sets • - can be powerful to examine contrasts • Show possible futures • Contextual, plausible • A logical path • Schnaars, S., & Ziamou, P. (2001)

22. Generating Scenarios • How does it flow

23. Imperatives & Trends

24. Generating Scenarios - an example • A Trend leads to an imperative: • Economic pressure combines with government demands for more highly skilled graduates • Impact: • The university will need growth of post-grad programmes • Library: • We will………..

25. Otago case study

26. Otago case study • Otago Library Operational Managers • introduction to scenario planning • workshop issues and options • timeline • Random teams from across the Library • Scenarios refined and developed by SMT

27. How did it unfold • Team compositions • Timing • Teams were presented scenarios • Scenario construction can be varied but still valid • Multi scenario planning not possible • Value in reinforcing “the future is now” • Yet to be embedded in quality assessment

28. Putting it into play – high level trends • Budget cuts • Changing social imperatives • Development of digital humanities services • Development of distance courses • Disaster preparedness • Economic pressure from Government • Emphasis placed on post-graduates • Increasing professional services • Technology developments • Dominance of the large publishers

29. (E) (L)(P)(S) (T) (En) • Putting it into play – high level trends • Budget cuts • Changing social imperatives • Development of digital humanities services • Development of distance courses • Disaster preparedness • Economic pressure from Government • Emphasis placed on post-graduates • Increasing professional services • Technology developments • Dominance of the large publishers (En) (P)(E) (P)(En) (En) (T) (En)

30. Common themes and implications • The untethered library • Just in time • Teaching online & global • 24/7 • Embedded librarians • Economies from scale

31. To Recap: Scenarios • Centre on construction of useable stories • each one a coherent whole • provoke thinking not substitute • Need to be • plausible based on assumptions • relevant to issues and challenges • specific decision-focused views • produce new perspectives

32. Group activity: introduction • scenario construction context consequence actions

33. Group activity • Trends this development responds to are:

34. Group activity

35. Group activity • Part Two • Consider options for three areas to be developed

36. Group activity • Factors could be • Impact on the sector and your university • Direct impact on your library • What trends might lead to a positive • What could be a negative version

37. Summing Up • Create a series of different futures • Use known drivers (trends) • Develop different future states • Refine to 3 - 5 scenarios • Knowledge exchange & responsiveness • Embed in strategic plan action points

38. The JISC…: ‘Step-by-Step Guide’ • Scoping • Trend Analysis • PESTLE • Create Scenarios • Generate Options • Review Options • Action Plan http://www.jiscinfonet.ac.uk/infokits/scenario-planning

39. A lot of work – what are the benefits • Enhance the planning and forecasting process • Ties diverse information and future environments • Avoids single view and blind spots • Forces explicit assumptions • Highlights areas for further examination • Draws staff and management into the process • Develops the Library’s corporate culture

40. Skills Development • Builds familiarity in handling uncertainty • Embrace diversity - find coherence • Team dynamics • Builds wider planning capabilities

41. Resources • Association of Research Libraries and Stratus, Inc., • The ARL 2030 Scenarios: A User’s Guide for Research Libraries (Washington, DC: ARL, 2010), • http://www.arl.org/bm~doc/arl-2030-scenariosusers-guide.pdf. • Futures, The journal of policy, planning and futures studies. Elsevier (Science Direct) • ISSN: 0016-3287& 1873-6378 • Libraries of the Future • http://www.futurelibraries.info/content/ • JISC Infonet scenario planning info kit • http://www.jiscinfonet.ac.uk/infokits/scenario-planning/ • Technological forecasting and social change. Elsevier (Science Direct) • ISSN 0040-1625 & 1873-5509 • Total Quality Management and Business Excellence. Routledge (Routledge Open Select) • ISSN 0954-4127

42. Acknowledgements • Libraries of the Future http://www.futurelibraries.info/content/ • Anderson Rick (2011), “The Crisis in Research Librarianship,” Journal of Academic Librarianship 37, no. 4 • http://www.balancedscorecard.org/BSCResources/StrategicPlanningBasics/tabid/459/Default.aspx • Dalziel, Murray, and Schoonover, Stephen C. (1988). Changing Ways: A Practical Tool for Implementing Change Within Organizations. New York. NY: Amacom/American Management Association. • http://dissertationhelponline.blogspot.co.nz/2012/01/research-strategy.html • http://www.jiscinfonet.ac.uk/infokits/scenario-planning/ • Kahn, Herman and Wiener, Anthony J (1967).The Year 2000 A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-Three Years. , New York. NY: The Macmillan Company. • Koontz, Harold and O'Donnell, Cyril (1959). Principles of management; an analysis of managerial functions (2nd ed.). New York,NY:McGraw-Hill. • Meister, Jeanne. 5 New Skills needed for leadership in 2020. http://www.humanresourcesiq.com/business-strategies/articles/5-new-skills-needed-for-leadership-in-2020/ • Schoemaker, Paul J. H. “Scenario Planning: A tool for Strategic Thinking.” Sloan Management Review, Winter 1995; 36 no. 2 • Schnaars, S., & Ziamou, P. (2001). The essentials of scenario writing. Business Horizons, 44(4), 25-31.

43. Images • http://www.flickr.com/photos/quasimondo/376852204/sizes/z/in/photostream/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/silvery/2290201108/ • http://www.flickr.com/photos/desmondwilder/5391002979/sizes/z/in/photostream/ • http://policy.nrcs.usda.gov/viewerFS.aspx?id=3005 Subpart A - Framework for Planning • http://blog.kana.com/service-experience-management/knowledge-management-the-next-five-years • http://www.flickr.com/photos/jnicho02/2637002496/ • http://dissertationhelponline.blogspot.co.nz/2012/01/research-strategy.html • http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-xGZ_ig3bAbU/UP3QYtUz7sI/AAAAAAAABM4/EU0Sya9Sx3k/s1600/01a1-strategic-planning.jpg • http://3dinspired.com/publications/scenario-planning-in-uncertain-times/ • http://sites.psu.edu/selvidesign/files/2011/12/scenario-planning-big.jpg

44. Images • http://www.edmc.am/wp-content/uploads/improving-workforce-development-eto-software3.jpg • http://www.illumine.co.uk/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/108784913.jpg • http://www.flickr.com/photos/magarell/208683442/ • http://thinkingfutures.net/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/future-ahead.jpg • http://occupiedwithlife.blogs.rice.edu/files/2013/01/Screen-Shot-2013-01-17-at-11.02.17-AM.png • http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-h-byX9hMwrw/URrdua_WTCI/AAAAAAAAADk/uKKtLYIiyOs/s1600/playwright.jpg • https://ctools.umich.edu/osp-presentation-tool/viewPresentation.osp?id=0A1E1FE677059A48CF284489D696FB38 • http://static.nz.groupon-content.net/dealarc/img/slider/663/books-1.jpg • http://www.otago.ac.nz/prodcons/groups/public/@otagomarketingservices/documents/webcontent/otago038750.jpg • http://images.iop.org/objects/phw/news/16/8/6/causality.jpg