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中国全要素生产率估算与分析 Measurement and Analysis of TFP in China

中国全要素生产率估算与分析 Measurement and Analysis of TFP in China. 郑京海 哥德堡大学经济系（瑞典） Jinghai Zheng Department of Economics Gothenburg University Sweden. 内容提要. 生产率概念的由来 全要素生产率的估算与拆分 全要素生产率与企业改革 全要素生产率与可持续经济增长 中国省际全要素生产率增长变化的实证分析 前苏联和亚洲四小龙的案例 影响全要素生产率增长的因素 中国经济增长模式的转变. 一、生产率概念的由来 : (1) 投入产出率.

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中国全要素生产率估算与分析 Measurement and Analysis of TFP in China

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  1. 中国全要素生产率估算与分析Measurement and Analysis of TFP in China 郑京海 哥德堡大学经济系（瑞典） Jinghai Zheng Department of Economics Gothenburg University Sweden

  2. 内容提要 • 生产率概念的由来 • 全要素生产率的估算与拆分 • 全要素生产率与企业改革 • 全要素生产率与可持续经济增长 • 中国省际全要素生产率增长变化的实证分析 • 前苏联和亚洲四小龙的案例 • 影响全要素生产率增长的因素 • 中国经济增长模式的转变

  3. 一、生产率概念的由来: (1) 投入产出率 • Total factor productivity is the average product of all inputs, it is the ratio of the output to an index of inputs. Let the index of inputs be denoted as X. Then total factor productivity (TFP) is TFP=y/X • Differentiating both sides logarithmically with respect to time gives

  4. 以成本份额加权平均 If define Notice

  5. 以成本在产值中的比重加权： Divisia index

  6. (2) 生产函数与技术进步 A stable relationship between output, inputs, and time exists: Rate of technical change is defined as:

  7. Divisia indexes and rate of technical change Total differentiation of with respect to time yields Dividing through by y gives Under profit maximization, output elassticity equals input Shares in total revenue: or Divisia input index

  8. 应用实例：技术进步与总量生产函数 (Solow, 1957)

  9. 增长核算公式

  10. Technical change is a shift in the production function

  11. (3) 管理（技术）效率与全要素生产率 • Farrell (1957)技术效率度量 • 一般化的Farrell技术效率度量 (Førsund & Hjalmarsson, 1979) • 数据包络分析(DEA)模型 • CCR 模型 （Charnes, Cooper, & Rhodes, 1978） • BCC 模型（Banker, Charnes, & Cooper, 1984） • ADD 模型 （Charnes, et al, 1985）

  12. DEA模型与回归模型的比较

  13. The CCR ratio model (input oriented, 1978)

  14. The linear transformation of the CCR ratio for a representative solution

  15. The dual to the linear transformation

  16. Envelopment surface for the input-oriented CCR model

  17. The Output-Oriented CCR model

  18. Suporting hyperplane for the output-oriented CCR model

  19. Restrictions on parameters in DEA • CRS: no restrictions • VRS: • Nonincreasing returns to scale (NIRS):

  20. CRS, NIRS, and VRS

  21. General statistics about the DEA bibliography database (Tavaresa, 2002).

  22. DEA publications number by type.

  23. DEA publications number by year

  24. Author statistics

  25. 二、全要素生产率的估算与拆分 • 增长核算法 (Devisia Index) • 生产函数估算法 • 平均生产函数法（技术进步） • 前沿生产函数法（技术效率） • Malmquist 指数法拆分(panel data) • 技术进步 • 技术效率改善 • 规模效率变化

  26. 技术效率、距离函数、 DEA、和Malmquist生产率指数之间的关系 • Technical efficiency (Farrell, 1957) • Technical progress (Sollow, 1957) • Distance function (Shephard, 1970) • DEA (Charnes, Cooper, & Rhodes, 1978). • TFP decomposition (Nishimizu & Page, 1982) • Malmquist index (Caves, et. al, 1982) • Malmquist TFP index decomposition (Färe et al, 1994)

  27. Farrell measure a road map Technical Efficiency (1957) Technical Progress (1957) Devisia index Deterministic parametric frontier Stochastic frontier Time trend Diewert Distance Function (1970) Törnqvist Index (1976) DEA (1978) Shephard CCR Geometric Mean of Malmquist Indexes (1982) Malmquist Index (1982) Panel data CCD CCD TFP Decomposition (1982) Nishimizu & Page Malmquist TFP Index decomposition (1992,1994) Färe et al (FGNZ)

  28. Malmquist 生产率指数的定义

  29. Malmquist 生产率指数的拆分

  30. The Malmquist output-based index of total factor productivity and output distance functions

  31. 生产率拆分的几何意义

  32. 经验估算的实施（线性规划）模型 1

  33. 经验估算的实施（线性规划）模型 2

  34. 三、全要素生产率与企业改革（Zheng, Liu, & Bigsten, 2003) • 六百多家国有企业（1980-1994） • 采用Malmquist指数法拆分生产率 • 样本企业的技术效率普遍较低（50-70%） • 尽管生产率增长显著，但以技术进步为主 • 大型国企技术进步率明显高于其他企业 • 最佳实践企业多位于沿海地区 • 工资激励和职工学历对生产率有促进作用

  35. Model Selection Process

  36. Determinants of technical efficiency and best practice (Zheng, Liu, & Bigsten, 2003)

  37. Determinants of productivity growth, efficiency change, and technical progress

  38. Probability of productivity growth, efficiency change, and technical progress

  39. 四、全要素生产率与可持续经济增长 • Solow增长模型显示在推动人均GDP增长的两个要素，资本和生产率之间，资本驱动型的增长是不可持续的。也就是说，在资本劳动比达到一定水平后，人均GDP的增长会出现停滞。尽管进一步增加储蓄率可以打破这一停滞，但经过一个时期后仍会在另一个人均GDP水平上出现新的停滞。这是由于在此类模型中人们通常假定资本的边际产出率递减。更为主要的是储蓄率不可能无限地增加。而由不断地提高生产率来带动的增长则是可持续性的。这是因为从理论上讲生产率的提高可以是无限的。

  40. The Solow-Swan 经济增长模型 （with technical change）

  41. 人均资本装备率的动态方程

  42. 稳态人均收入取决于技术进步率(TFP)

  43. 集约型与粗放式增长模式的区别

  44. A few clarifications on the concept of TFP(G) • TFP growth occurs when technology progresses and efficiency improves. The former is usually a long-run concept in the context of growth theory, and the latter can be a short-run phenomenon. • A high TFP growth is not necessarily profitable. • TFP growth should not be used as a target in economic planning, but might be estimated for forecasting purpose. • A high TFP growth may not be always desirable, but one should be definately worried with a sustained period of low or negative growth in TFP.

  45. 五、中国省际全要素生产率的实证分析 • 改革时期的省际数据（1979-2001） • Malmquist指数法 • 1978－95年间为省际TFP高增长期（4.6%） • 技术进步为主 • 1996－01年期出现省际TFP低增长期（0.6%） • 技术进步速度减慢、技术效率有所下降

  46. 总体经济效率：工业中存在的问题 • Policy burdens • Sub-optimal scale in production • Limited capacity to innovate • Weak financial discipline • Sheltered firms vs. Less favored firms

  47. 总体经济效率：金融系统存在的问题 • Credit is insufficiently allocated • Lack of external discipline • It is still mostly state owned • Large proportion of Non-performing loans • A vicious circle: SOEfinancial sectorSOEfinancial sector

  48. 总体经济效率：省际生产的政治经济因素 • Twenty years of economic reform in the PRC have resulted in a fragmented internal market with fiefdoms controlled by local officials whose economic and political ties to protected industry resemble those of the Latin American economies of past decades. (Young, 2000)

  49. 1952-78 1978-95 1995-2001 2003 Population 2.0 1.4 0.9 0.6 GDP 4.7 9.8 8.2 9.1 GDP per capita 2.7 8.4 7.3 8.5 Employment 2.6 2.6 1.2 0.9 Labor Productivity 2.1 7.2 7.0 8.2 Capital Stock 11.5 9.3 11.8 15.8 Human Capital 4.1 2.2 2.8 2.8 Capital Productivity -6.8 0.5 -3.6 -6.7 Capital per capita 8.9 6.7 10.6 14.9 TFPa -1.9 4.64(47.3) 2.28(27.8) 1.11(12.2) TFPb 3.95(40.3) 1.30(15.9) 0.27(3.0) TFPc 3.26(33.3) 0.32(3.9) -1.12 The “Discovery” of Recent Productivity Slow Down(Source：Hu & Zheng，State of the Nation Reprot, 2004) Unit：%

  50. Periods TFP Growth Technical Efficiency Change Technical Progress Mean Std Mean Std Mean Std 1979-1990 1.0494 0.0139 0.9902 0.0112 1.0605 0.0065 1991-2001 1.0185 0.0215 0.9969 0.0131 1.0216 0.0159 1979-1995 1.0463 0.0128 0.9932 0.0113 1.0542 0.0059 1996-2001 1.0060 0.0256 0.9936 0.0138 1.0124 0.0172 1979-1984 1.0765 0.0191 0.9847 0.0139 1.0938 0.0100 1985-1990 1.0222 0.0172 0.9958 0.0162 1.0272 0.0084 1991-1995 1.0372 0.0234 1.0020 0.0225 1.0354 0.0166 1996*-2001 1.0060 0.0256 0.9936 0.0138 1.0124 0.0172 TFP Growth and its Components during Different Periods

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