Debbie Brace 3 rd April 2014

1. Mod 0489 EU Balancing Code - Information Provision changes required to align the UNC with the EU Code Debbie Brace 3rd April 2014

2. Content • EU Gas Balancing Code sets out the information to be provided by Transmission System Operators (TSOs) to Network Users and the obligations of the Transmission System Operator (TSO), Distribution System Operator (DSO) & Forecasting party in this area. • GB regime provides information in line with the EU Code. However, there are some impacts: • 1. Non Daily Metered Allocation (NDMA) • 2. NDMA Accuracy report • 3. Initial allocation

3. 1. NDMA

4. NDM Forecast (aka NDMA) Methodology • EU Code Article 42 - Information obligations of the forecasting party(-ies) The methodology for the forecast of a shipper’s non daily metered offtakes shall be based on a statistical demand model, with each non daily metered off-take assigned with a load profile, consisting of a formula of the variation in gas demand versus variables such as temperature, day of week, customer type and holiday seasons. The methodology shall be subject to consultation before its adoption. • Uniform Network Code Section H 5.2.2 A "Short Term Demand Model" is a mathematical model established by the Transporters on the basis of historic demand and other data, which estimates (at a given time) for an LDZ and the Total System and for any Day demand, by reference to data including: (a) forecasts of temperature and wind speeds for the Gas Flow Day or the remainder thereof; (b) recorded temperature and wind speeds for the Preceding Day and (where relevant) the Gas Flow Day up to the time of forecasting; and (c) actual demand (assessed by reference to gas flows at NTS/LDZ Offtakes adjusted for estimated changes in LDZ stock) for the Preceding Day and (where relevant) the Gas Flow Day up to the time of forecasting. 4

5. NDM Forecast Requirement 36.1 (a) – “ On gas day D-1, the transmission system operator shall provide the shippers with a non daily metered derived forecast for gas day D no later than 12:00UTC or, when daylight saving time is applied, 11:00UTC.” 36.1 (b) – “ On gas day D, the transmission system operator shall provide the shippers with a minimum of two updates of the forecast of their non daily metered off-takes 36.2 The first update shall be provided no later than 13:00 UTC (winter time) or 12:00 UTC (daylight saving). 36.3 The time of the second update provision shall be defined upon approval by the national regulatory authority and published by the transmission system operator…..

6. NDMA Process • Non-Daily Metered Allocation Process (NDMA) • Gemini calculates the NDMA using LDZ demand forecasts and weather forecasts * Affected UNC time due to EU Balancing Code

7. Current UNC NDMA Inputs Temperature, Wind Speed, Demand (Future & Historic) Input 7

8. Future – Project Nexus The proposed Project Nexus Modifications change the NDMA process but the timings of the NDMA are not being changed The proposed Project Nexus changes aim to increase the accuracy of the future NDMA process amongst other things 8

9. NDMA – Proposed Solution • Keep the existing UNC D-1 14:00 and add an additional NDMA publication at D-1 12:00 • Is this agreeable? • Default NDMA forecast methodology proposed to mitigate any missing input data (current process or post Nexus) - use last available NDMA data item • Is this suitable?

10. 2. NDMA Accuracy Report

11. NDMA Accuracy Report Article 42.Information obligations of the forecasting party(-ies) • A report on the accuracy of a shipper’s non daily metered off-takes shall be published by the forecasting party at least every two years.

12. Accuracy Report – Proposed Solution (1) • Report should be published annually - consisting of 12-months of data • Is an annual publication suitable? • The report should show a daily comparison of NDMA forecasts to the D+1 (initial) & D+5 (final) allocations • Is there a preference for D+1 or D+5, or both? • Proposed that the NDMA forecasts at D-1 14:00, D 12:00 & D18:00 be used • Are these NDMAs the right ones to use?

13. Example of data to be collated • As explained the report could contain comparisons between: • D-1 14:00 forecast and D + 1 allocation & D + 5 allocation • D 12:00 forecast and D + 1 allocation & D + 5 allocation • D 18:00 forecast and D + 1 allocation & D + 5 allocation • For example:

14. Accuracy Report – Proposed Solution (2) • Xoserve to provide a high level commentary within the report (summary of the relevant information, findings and advice) • Is this agreeable? • Proposed that the report is published on NG and /or Xoserve website • Is there a preference for either website, or both? 14

15. 3. Initial Allocations

16. 3. Initial Allocation • EU Code requires that “no later than the end of gas day D+1, the TSO shall provide each shipper with an initial allocation for it’s inputs and off-takes on day D and an initial daily imbalance quantity” • UNC mod required to change timing stated in E1.6.2 to provide data before end of 1st day after gas day rather than 2nd day after gas day as stated in UNC • We do not believe that any system changes are required as the info is already provided in line with EU

17. Any questions Any Questions? For further information please contact me on 01926 653233 or deborah.brace@nationalgrid.com