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A STUDY OF DOPPLER RADAR WINDS IN HURRICANE WILMA (2005)

17B.2. A STUDY OF DOPPLER RADAR WINDS IN HURRICANE WILMA (2005). Peter Dodge, Paul Hebert*, Shirley T. Murillo and Mark D. Powell Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory Hurricane Research Division Miami, Florida *Retired, formerly National Weather Service. Goals of Study.

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A STUDY OF DOPPLER RADAR WINDS IN HURRICANE WILMA (2005)

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  1. 17B.2 A STUDY OF DOPPLER RADAR WINDS IN HURRICANE WILMA (2005) Peter Dodge, Paul Hebert*, Shirley T. Murillo and Mark D. Powell Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory Hurricane Research Division Miami, Florida *Retired, formerly National Weather Service

  2. Goals of Study • Compile edited WSR-88D Doppler data from Hurricane Wilma landfall on 24 Oct 2005 • Compare with surface observations to derive surface reduction factor • Create map of maximum Doppler winds, reduced to proxy surface wind estimate • Supply in GIS format to FPL

  3. Extreme Wind Warning • New short-fuse local warning by WFO’s for imminent damaging winds. • Hurricane must have sustained winds 100 kts or greater. • WFO (and NHC) will use 88D data to decide warning areas. • Need to relate Doppler velocities to surface winds.

  4. WSR 88D Radar • Doppler range 230 km max • Reflectivity range 460 km max • PRF controls unambiguous range, velocity PRF Range Doppler Velocity ------------------------------------------------- 1282 117 km 34.3 m/s 1095 137 km 29.3 m/s 857 175 km 22.9 m/s

  5. Adjusting Doppler to Surface • We know winds above BL are typically stronger than surface winds. • Want to “adjust” Doppler to surface • Use H*Wind QC data set: consistent estimate of 10 m, 1 min winds for open marine exposure. • Compute sfc/dop ratio and sfc_cmp/dop ratios.

  6. VAD Wind Profile at 1150 UTC 24 October 2005

  7. VAD Profile 1150 UTC, 24 OCT 2005 • Beam Midpoint Beam Volume range beam km km m/s deg m/s deg • ---------------------------------------------------- • 50.0 .6 58.6 194.8 55.2 191.4 • 75.0 1.0 59.6 203.3 57.5 197.6 • 100.0 1.5 59.5 211.3 58.8 205.9 • 125.0 2.0 59.5 216.7 59.8 212.5 • 150.0 2.7 61.4 216.1 60.6 216.4 • 175.0 3.4 63.1 220.8 61.1 218.2

  8. 100 m vs 1 km VAD winds 100 m winds 1000 m winds UTC m/s deg m/s deg ratio del dir -------------------------------------------------------- • 09:02 20.8 153.7 40.0 167.7 0.52 -14.0 • 10:02 31.9 154.6 50.0 173.3 0.64 -18.7 • 10:28 33.5 159.4 52.9 177.5 0.63 -18.1 • 11:50 42.7 179.6 59.6 202.5 0.72 -22.9 • 12:07 42.0 188.0 56.9 212.9 0.74 -24.9 • 12:28 37.0 205.2 49.4 229.2 0.75 -24.0 • 12:57 24.8 237.4 50.1 253.9 0.50 -16.5 • 13:32 18.4 252.2 52.0 269.1 0.35 -16.9 • 14:01 32.8 258.3 50.3 280.6 0.65 -22.3 • 14:34 29.6 256.7 44.2 280.4 0.67 -23.7 • 15:01 22.1 260.9 40.1 283.5 0.55 -22.6 -----------------------------------------------------------

  9. Surface Stations in H*Wind QC Set

  10. Doppler vs Surface Obs • STN cos dop tm dop sfc sfc_cmp ratio cmp_ratio • --------------------------------------------------------------------------- • FWY 0.96 170104 28.0 23.8 23.0 0.84 0.82 • T0_ -.99 122804 -47.4 35.9 -35.8 0.75 0.75 • T1_ 0.98 121204 60.4 41.3 40.3 0.68 0.66 • T2_ -.99 140604 -51.9 26.8 -26.7 0.51 0.51 • T3_ 0.99 122304 42.4 31.1 31.1 0.73 0.73 • RSW -.97 142304 -30.9 17.6 -17.1 0.57 0.55 • TMB 0.99 090159 24.4 18.7 18.7 0.76 0.76 • FLL 0.99 133804 46.4 43.2 43.2 0.93 0.93 • MIA 0.99 125704 45.4 29.8 29.7 0.65 0.65 • OPF 0.62 102304 27.5 31.9 19.8 1.16 0.72 • PBI 0.82 140104 25.9 27.7 22.9 1.06 0.88 • PMP 0.46 111304 36.7 33.3 15.3 0.90 0.42 Average Ratio: 0.68 Std Dev: 0.10

  11. Conclusions • Single Doppler data can fill in gaps when ASOS and other surface stations fail, but only as lower bound estimate. • 68 - 70 % surface reduction adjustment matches surviving surface obs. • Not clear how these radar data could be incorporated directly into H*Wind.

  12. Further Work Extend to other storms: Frances, Jeanne, and Katrina Can we come up with rules of thumb or is there too much variability storm to storm? Extended Preprint at ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/dodge/ Preprint_17B.2_PDodge.pdf

  13. Thanks • FPL- Paul Hebert, Ira Brenner, Brick Rule • NHC – Colin MacAdie and Richard Pasch • ROC – Dave Zittel • FCMP – Forrest Masters • TTU – Ian Giammanco • HRD – Shirley Murillo, Nick Carrasco, Russell St. Fleur, Sonia Otero

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