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IS BANGLADESH SELF-SUFFICIENT IN FOOD (GRAIN) PRODUCTION? Food Security in Bangladesh

World Food 1 Programme. IS BANGLADESH SELF-SUFFICIENT IN FOOD (GRAIN) PRODUCTION? Food Security in Bangladesh Pieter Dijkhuizen Country Director WFP Bangladesh. World Food

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IS BANGLADESH SELF-SUFFICIENT IN FOOD (GRAIN) PRODUCTION? Food Security in Bangladesh

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  1. World Food 1 Programme IS BANGLADESH SELF-SUFFICIENT IN FOOD (GRAIN) PRODUCTION? Food Security in Bangladesh Pieter Dijkhuizen Country Director WFP Bangladesh

  2. World Food Programme 2 Reply to this question is important for strategy of WFP assistance to Bangladesh: Food self-sufficiency: withdrawal or local purchase

  3. World Food Programme 3 Considerable progress has been made in last 25 years: From “Bottomless Basket” to discussion: “Is Bangladesh Self-Sufficient? In the 70’s : up to 20% of food provided by food aid In 2000: food aid amounts to 2% of food supply

  4. World Food Programme 4 Conflicting Information • GOB claims self-sufficiency: • Food grain availability in 2000: 25.5 m MT corresponds with 196 kg/cap/yr or 1900 kcal/cap/day • Newspapers report farm prices for rice depressed due to lack of demand

  5. World Food Programme 5 • HKI reports wide-spread serious malnutrition: • Women almost 50% have BMI<18.5*; 45% Anaemic; 25% Vit-A deficient • Children <5 yrs: 55% Stunted*, Underweight, Anaemic 25% Vit-A deficient * Indicating Chronic Under nutrition

  6. World Food Programme 6 Food availability in 2000/01 (GOB) ( m MT Food grains) Rice Wheat Total Net local production* 22.5 1.5 24.0 Commercial imports 0.5 0.5 1.0 Food aid import 0.5 0.5 --------------------------- 23.0 2.5 25.5 * 10% seeds and losses subtracted

  7. World Food Programme 7 Food Requirement • GOB assumes food grain requirement of 454 g/cap/day (1 lb) • Total net food grain requirement for Bangladesh therefore: 454 g x 365 days x 130 m people = 21.5 m MT

  8. World Food Programme 8 With this requirement of 21.5 m MT Bangladesh already self-sufficient with reported local rice production of 22.5 m MT. Questions: • Why still (commercial) import? • What happens with surplus? • Why still such malnutrition?

  9. World Food Programme 9 Considering physiological needs and socio-economic conditions FAO distinguishes 3 levels of food requirements: • Emergency level – 1800 kcal/cap/day • Requirement level – 2120 kcal/cap/day • Recommended level – 2400 kcal/cap/day

  10. World Food Programme 10 Recommended level (2400 kcal/day) takes into account: • Composition population • Size individuals • Physical activity level • Climate • Type of diet • Disease level • Distribution inequality

  11. World Food Programme 11 • FAO food balance sheet for BGD and other information indicates that around 75% of energy in diet derived from food grains (90% rice/10% wheat) • Accepting the 2400 kcal recommended diet and 75% food grain contribution, the food grain requirement will be: 0.75 x 2400/357* = 504 g/cap/day * Nutritional value 90% rice/10% wheat diet

  12. World Food Programme 12 Total needs-based food grain requirement: 504 g x 365 days x 130 m people = 23.9 m MT This amount coincides with claimed local food grain production (24.0 m) However availability (25.5 m MT) still exceeds requirement Questions: ₛ Still 1 m MT surplus ₛ Wide spread malnutrition unexplained

  13. World Food Programme 13 Consumption Surveys: • 1999 poverty monitoring survey (BBS) • 2000 household income and expenditure survey (BBS) outcome: • 45% population (60 m) : absolute poverty (food intake <2122 kcal/day) • 20% population (26 m): hard-core poverty (food intake <1805 kcal/day)

  14. World Food Programme 14 Food Intake (g/day): FOOD ITEM PMS HHI & ES FOODGRAIN 477* 476* POTATO 64 55 VEGETABLES 149 156 MILK & MP 32 30 MEAT PEF 65 57 PULSES 24 16 OTHERS 115 103 -------------------------------------- 926 893 * Represents 75% of energy value diet

  15. World Food Programme 15 According Consumption Surveys: ₝ Total food grain consumption 477 g x 365 days x 130m people = 22.6 m MT = “true” availability ₝ “Real” requirement : 23.9 m MT ₝ Deficit between requirement and availability: 23.9 – 22.6= 1.3 m MT Demand lower than requirement due to lack of purchasing power

  16. World Food Programme 16 “Realistic” local production: • 22.6 m MT (consumption) – 1.5 m MT (imports) = 21.1 m MT • Gap between “real” requirement and “realistic” local production : 23.9 - 21.1 = 2.8 m MT • Deficit between requirement and availability: 23.9 – 22.6= 1.3 m MT

  17. World Food Programme 17 Summary ₝ Consumption = availability = 22.6 m MT food grain ₝ Local production overestimated (losses too low) ₝ ‘Realistic’ net local production: 22.6 – 1.5 = 21.1 m MT (not 24.0) ₝ ‘Real’ requirement estimated at 23.9 m MT (not 21.5) ₝ Gap requirement – local production: 23.9 – 21.1 = 2.8 m MT (12.7%) ₝ Gap requirement – availability: 23.9 – 22.6 = 1.3 m MT Above scenario explains importation needs and malnutrition

  18. World Food Programme 18 Conclusion • Despite commercial imports and food aid still considerable food deficit (1.3 m MT food grains): due to lack of purchasing power • Food grain self-sufficiency not yet achieved • For immediate future still need for (imported) food aid

  19. World Food Programme 19 What is the perspective for food(grain) self-sufficiency of Bangladesh? Detailed information from poverty monitoring survey provides some insights

  20. World Food Programme 20 Poverty Monitoring Survey: Intake Data (g/day)

  21. World Food Programme 21 PMS/FAO-FBS Generic Developing Country

  22. World Food Programme 22 Discussion 1: • Diet Bangladeshi particular: • High rice demand • Low fat use • Large unmet demand for • Rice • Vegetables/fruit • Meat/fish/milk • Importation • Food grain • Milk • Fat • Sugar

  23. World Food Programme 23 Discussion 2: • Food grain component of diet high; expected to decrease with increase affluence population • Rice production has growth potential: local paddy yield 3.6 MT/Ha, surrounding countries 5.0 MT/Ha (40% up) • Decreased rice area would make room for foods now imported

  24. World Food Programme 24 Discussion 3: • Food aid to bridge food gap of ultra-poor: (together with development package) • Local production need to be stimulated: role for GOB agricultural price policies • Only limited local purchases food aid possible now; large scale purchases will interfere with market price

  25. World Food Programme 25 Food Aid 2002 WFP Multilateral 160.000 MT Bilateral Australia 50.000 MT Bilateral EEC 30.000 MT Sub-total WFP 240.000 MT Canada Bilateral 75.000 MT USAID Bilateral 180.000 MT 495.000 MT

  26. World Food Programme Thank You

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