Damascus – Syrian Arab Republic 15-16 September 2010

1. Arab Climate Resilience InitiativeFirst Regional Consultation Meeting“Climate Change Impacts in the Arab Region: Water Scarcity, Drought and Population Mobility” Regional Synopsis of Adaptation to Climate Change ByBalgis Osman-Elasha(PhD) Damascus – Syrian Arab Republic15-16 September 2010

2. Presentation outline Background Vulnerability and Adaptation Adaptation Efforts in the region Conclusions

3. Background • Vulnerability (IPCC definition) • The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of CC including climate variability & extremes. • It is a function of the magnitude, and rate of change to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.

4. Risk : is the overlay of hazard and vulnerabilityDisasters : are the realisation of risk HAZARD RISK VULNERABILITY

5. Developing Countries Are Most At Risk Low Income Source: World Bank Middle Income

6. Non-climate factors leading to vulnerability in the region • Many countries face varying degrees of what we can call (the impacts of (multiple stressors) which can compound the impacts climate variability and change example: • Chronic poverty • Increasing population • Weak institutions and physical infrastructure • Low access totechnology and information, • Political and social Instability • Lack of political commitments, access to resources and management capabilities • High illiteracy rates and lack of skills • etc….

7. IPCC Projections IPCC projected large reductions in rainfall in N. Africa and Mediterranean Annual precipitation changes over Africa between 1980-1999 & 2080-2099 from MMD-A1B simulations, mean for 21 models

9. It is important to note that • While many parts of the Arab region particularly MENA will be facing a more frequent drought condition parts of the region such as Sudan and Yemen are projected to receive an increasing amount of rainfall and potential floods • (high uncertainty and increasing variability). (Brooks, 2007),

10. Resulting Impacts (1) • Food insecurity: Food production would face an increased threat, arising from and increasing aridity and changes in the growing seasons and reduced agricultural yields. • increased poverty, undermining economic development, & delay or prevent the realization of the MDGs. World Bank President Robert Zoellick’s at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in 2007 in Bali called climate change a “development, economic, and investment challenge.”

11. Potential Impacts (2) • Under a temperature increase of 1°C-3°C. Sea level rise poses a risk to low-lying coastal areas in Kuwait, Qatar, Libya, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, and particularly to Egypt • This along with storm surges present huge threats to buildings and infrastructure in the region consequently, transportation systems, water and energy supplies, recreational tourism beach facilities and wastewater networks, will be at risk • Higher intensity and frequency of hot days will increase the demand for energy and impact the power generation

12. The solution Development Climate Resilient Dev Low Carbon Dev Climate Compatible Development Mitigation Adaptation Climate Proofing

13. Adaptation refers to all those responses to climate change that may be used to reduce vulnerability or to actions designed to take advantage of new opportunities that may arise as a result of climate change Adaptation Concept

14. Types of adaptation

15. In general terms ----------The ability of communities to adapt to climate change is determined by their level of development, their access to resources and their scientific and technical skills and capacities. Adaptation Determinants (1)

16. For adaptation to be effective in addressing country/community levels impacts, it must: • progress at several levels simultaneously from local to national to global; • For the local and national efforts to be more effective it needs to be supported by enabling national policies, regulations and institutional setups – this should be supported by regional & international agreements. Adaptation Determinants (2)

17. Essential adaptation development elements include a) Information, as effective adaptation measures must be based on accurate data and information (nature and extend of likely impacts - cost and efficacy of possible response measures). b) Capacity: Technical and technological. c) Financial Resources: to ensure the provision of hardware and software to deal with adaptation. d) Institutions— Adaptation responses cut across a number of institutions need for coordination of comprehensive strategies and ensure sustainability e) Technology;technology for adaptation is equally important as for mitigation, there is even greater need for adaptive technology that is suited to the specific needs and conditions. Adaptation Determinants (2)

18. ) • FAO highlighted the importance of policy reforms. In addition it emphasizes the importance of the following measures related to agriculture: • Development of climate change early warning systems, • disaster risk management, • Increasing rural investments: • incentives to adopt better agricultural and land use practices and crop insurance • building capacity and awareness • provision of supportive services such as extension and research • data collection, monitoring, analysis& dissemination. Adaptation Determinants (3)

19. Fragmented efforts at national levels Adaptation Gap in the region No coordinated regional or sub-regional adaptation approach Adaptation efforts in the region

20. Addressing adaptation in the region: some examples • The AFED Report, 2009 proposed a number of adaptation measures for different sectors • a. Water Resources: Improve efficiency, especially in irrigation, and develop new water resources including innovative desalination technologies. • b. Food Production: Develop new varieties of crops that can adapt to higher temperatures and different spans of seasons, • c. Sea Level Rise: Adapt land use regulations to the potential rise in sea level, by increasing the minimum clear distance required between buildings and shoreline. • d. Infrastructure and buildings: Choice of construction materials and techniques used for buildings, roads, and utility • e. Biodiversity: develop mechanisms for coordinating conservation actions across political boundaries and agency jurisdiction, • f. Human Health: Adapt human health systems and prepare them to respond to the consequences of climate change, . • g. Tourism: Explore and promote options for alternative tourism less vulnerable to climate variability, such as cultural tourism.

21. Other identified adaptation priorities Some countries highlighted in their NCs and NAPAs, adaptation options and/or strategies for different sectors e.g.: Agriculture: development of drought-tolerant crops, early warning systems, erosion control, training farmers Health: improvement of the health care system, Forest: enhancement of forest management, Tourism: protection of tourism infrastructure, Biodiversity: strengthening of environmental legislation and promotion of nature conservation.

22. Adaptation priorities in Arab countries converge over water resources(1) This is because the majority of the Arab countries are considered among the world‘s most water scarce, and in many places demand for water already exceeds supply. Climate change scenarios for water in the Arab region cannot be viewed in isolation, as rapid population growth, industrial development, urbanization and increasing demand for irrigation exert additional pressures on water resources.

23. Annual renewable water resources per capita

24. Adaptation priorities in Arab countries converge over water resources (2) • The challenge of making an optimal water allocation for a growing number of competing water management options (e.g. agriculture, public consumption, industry, hydro-energy, ecosystems, etc.) under a changing climate system places a heavy burden on water managers. • The fact that the water sector is more than any other sector requires cooperation across various institutions and systematic updating. This particularly important for Trans-boundary water resources such as Nile Basin, which is shared between 0 nations -Cooperation is critical for sustainable management of water resources (Nile Basin Initiative)

25. Adaptation measures identified for water resources under NCs • Use of supplementary irrigation (reduce high dependency on rain. • Integrated water management • Tapping different available sources (e.g. desalinization, recycling) • Harvesting and storage • Efficiency of water use and demand control • We should not neglect water quality problems associated with CC

26. Addressing adaptation in the region: what needs to be done?? To address this region specific concerns: - Acoordinated effort of capacity building, training, research, & development is required. • A region-wide monitoring, making available reliable observations and transforming them into useful information for a wide spectrum stakeholders particularly policy makers.

27. Addressing adaptation in the region: what needs to be done?? • Plan adaptive strategies at the country and regional levels and work towards strengthening national capacities. • It is equally important that Arabic governments integrate climate risk-based approaches, within water policy frameworks.

28. Mal Adaptation • Adaptation at one scale/time or space could lead to mal adaptation at another scale/time or space. • E.g. dams at up-stream- water constraints at downstream. • Intensification of production –extraction of ground water –could impact future generation? • Agric inputs-impacts on water quality

29. Adaptation under a situation of hostility • Many of the Arab countries are bordered or share resources with non-Arabic countries-some these countries don’t enjoy friendly relationships – need to think of developing adaptation under antagonistic atmosphere.

30. Conclusions • Regional cooperation in adaptation efforts should be fostered through the adoption of regional strategies and action plans that address CC concerns, and through the development of a regional early warning system for forecasts, risk assessment and monitoring of extreme events. • An enhanced cooperation, development & implementation of integrated regional water management between countries sharing water sources - both surface and groundwater • Empowerment of communities,– particularly women and other vulnerable groups . • Involving civil societies and private sector

31. Thank you