How Will Dartmouth Still be Relevant in 20 years?

How Will Dartmouth Still be Relevant in 20 years? September 4th, 2011 Josh Jarrett, Deputy Director Source: Seattle Times, Tuesday, January 26, 2010

My frame of reference • Motivations: • Increased access to opportunity • Wicked problems • Impatient actors • Enlightened self interest • Private sector: • Strategy and management consultant • Software entrepreneur • MBA • Nonprofit sector: • Consultant to National Park Service, charter schools, and health services • Foundation program officer – innovative technology and delivery in postsecondary ed Class of 2028 Class of 2031 Class of 2032

Higher ed on the edge of major transformation? • The Gates Foundation’s postsecondary work • The changing learner • Five trends in technology and learning I'm watching

Predictions for higher ed in 2020 • More students • Higher completion rates • Lower cost per student • Smaller chunks of learning • More, measurable indicators of learning

Four Challenges for the Next Decade Quality challenge • Increasing demands from global economy • Questioning what students are really learning Completion challenge • Middle skill job demand • Stagnant ~40% AA+ attainment levels • Low completion rates Funding challenge • State budget cuts • Limits to student and family ability to pay and to borrow Demographic challenge • Increasing diversity • Low academic readiness • “Non-traditional” new normal

Jobs in today’s (and tomorrow’s) workforce require more education Source: Carnevale, Anthony P. et al. (June 2010). Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements Through 2018. Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce. www9.georgetown.edu/grad/gppi/hpi/cew/pdfs/FullReport.pdf

The college access agenda has been a success… Postsecondary fall enrollment 1963-2005 Source: IPEDS

…But degree attainment rates are flat Source: OECD, “Education at a Glance 2009” (All rates are self-reported) 9

Why? Low completion rates – our dirty little secret Percentage of students expecting to earn credentialswho had earned a credential within five years 73% 61% 55% 53% 38% Source: NELS 1988

The quality of degrees themselves is being questioned • Study of 2,300 undergraduates at two dozen universities who took the Collegiate Learning Assessment • 45 percent “demonstrated no significant gains in critical thinking, analytical reasoning, and written communications during the first two years of college” • 32 percent of the students whom they followed did not, in a typical semester, take “any courses with more than 40 pages of reading per week • 50 percent “did not take a single course in which they wrote more than 20 pages over the course of the semester”

Tuition and fees are growing rapidly… Source: New York Times

Source: Association of American Publishers (AAP) …And state funding is declining

Meanwhile, student demographics are increasingly nontraditional • “Traditional” • Enter college directly after high school • Enroll fulltime • Financially dependent on their parents 25% • “Non-traditional” • Financially independent (>50%) • Have dependents of their own (27%) • Work full time (38%) • Enroll part time (49%) 75% Source: The Other 75%: Government Policy & Mass Higher Education., Paul Attewell (unpublished).

100% 12-39% 1-28% 3% 5% 8% 14% 30% Education is the primary arbiter of opportunity in the U.S. Composition of total intergenerational correlation between parent and children’s income, by transmission channel Education of parents Race of head of household Health status of parents State of residence Female-headed household Financial assets Unexplained (e.g., motivation, social networks, community, norms) Total inter-generational correlation = 0.431 (1.0 would be perfectly correlated) Source: Hertz. 2006 Center for American Progress, “Understanding Mobility in America”

2 Higher education is not equitably distributed Bachelor’s Degree attainment by age 24 Source: Mortenson, Thomas (2009). Family Income and Educational Attainment. 1970 – 2008. Postsecondary Education Opportunity. No 209, Nov 2009.

The Gates Foundation’s work in the U.S. All young people who have the will to get a postsecondary credential should have the way to do it U.S. Program Goal College-Ready Postsecondary Success Graduate all students college-ready Helping all young people reach their full potential Help all young people get degrees that count

Gates Foundation postsecondary priorities • Focusing on completion, not just access, in our measurement, funding, and financial aid systems • Accelerating time to a degree through restructuring developmental education and bridging the gaps between high school and college • Unlocking the power of technology to personalize learning and student progression 1 2 3

Baby Boomers Generation X Net Gen • Video games • PC • Email • CDs • Individualist • Web • Cell phone • IM • MP3s • Online community • TV generation • Typewriters • Telephone • Memos • Family focus Changing generational context

Changing generational context • NetGen’s Online 12.2 hrs per week • 28% > GenX, 50% > Boomer • NetGen50% more likely to send IMs than GenX, 2x as likely to read Blogs, just as likely to use Social Networking Sites • 70% HH Broadband (up from 29% in 2004) • 85% HH Mobile Phones • Data to phone: 50% NetGen, 33% GenY, 20% Boomers

How does Net Gen use the internet? • Less for formal expression For social, search, and commerce • Use an online social networking site like MySpace or Facebook 73% • Go online to get news or information about current events or politics 62% • Buy things online, such as books, clothing, or music 48% • Share something online that you created yourself, such as your own artwork, photos, stories or videos 38% • Look online for health, dieting, or physical fitness information 31% • Take material you find online like songs, text or images and remix it into your own artistic creation 21% • Create or work on your own online journal or blog 14% • Use Twitter 8% • Visit virtual worlds such as Gaia, Second Life or Habbo Hotel 8% Source: Pew Survey of Internet & American Life, 2009

How to make sense of all this? Emerging Product Categories P2P Social Games Learning Games Simulation Social Networks Mobile Open Publishing Aggregators Informal Learning Formal Learning Reference-ware Online Learning Online Resources Tutoring Community Driven Interven-tions Services Oriented Learning Communities Content Driven Platform Driven Established Product Categories Source: Startl

Bloom can help: the two-sigma problem Source: The 2 Sigma Problem: The Search for Methods of Group Instruction as Effective as One-to-One Tutoring, Benjamin S. Bloom, Educational Researcher, 1984

Five Trends I'm Watching • Open content and cheap devices democratize information 1

Open educational resources moving beyond PDFs… 2,000 MIT courses, many with lecture capture 2,400 lessons, delivered 78,406,600 times – and counting

…And available at students’ fingertips Source: BCG, Unleashing the Potential of Technology in Education, Allison Bailey, Tyce Henry, Lane McBride, J. Puckett, August 2011

Five Trends I'm Watching • Lecture model challenged by virtual teams and shared courseware • Open content and cheap devices democratize information 2 1

“Improvement in post-secondary education will require converting teaching from a ‘solo-sport’ to a community-based research activity.” -Herbert Simon, Nobel Laureate

Carnegie Mellon Open Learning Initiative Source: Carnegie Mellon Open Learning Initiative

Accelerated Learning Results • OLI students completed course in half the time with half the number of in-person course meetings • OLI students showed significantly greater learning gains (on the national standard “CAOS” test for statistics knowledge) and similar exam scores • No significant difference between OLI and traditional students in follow-up measures given 1+ semesters later Source: Carnegie Mellon Open Learning Initiative

Model challengers taking many forms

Five Trends I'm Watching • Lecture model challenged by virtual teams and shared courseware • Open content and cheap devices democratize information • Social media enables learning networks 2 3 1

Social media for social integration Correlation of Facebook activity to persistence Source: Morris, Reese, Beck, and Mattis, Facebook Usage as a Predictor of Retention at a Private 4-Year Institution, Journal of College Student Retention, 2010

Layering social into learning networks

How many people would you like in your learning network?

Five Trends I'm Watching 4 • Lecture model challenged by virtual teams and shared courseware • Open content and cheap devices democratize information • Amazon/Ebay style analytics unlock personalization • Social media enables learning networks 2 3 1

Time-to-degree tracks of “4-year” students Per semester credits: 4 year: >=15 5 year: 12-14 6 year: <12 Source: SARA GOLDRICK-RAB and DOUGLAS N. HARRIS;

Amazon features

Predictive modeling and targeted interventions • American Public University System • Rio Salado College • Purdue University • Iowa Community Colleges Online Consortium • Sinclair Community College • University of Maryland (BC) • Capella University ENTRY PROGRESS CONNECTION COMPLETION Student Data System Student Engagement Leadership Focused on Completion

Five Trends I'm Watching • DIY is for real and informal learning brands emerge 4 5 • Lecture model challenged by virtual teams and shared courseware • Open content and cheap devices democratize information • Amazon/Ebay style analytics unlock personalization • Social media enables learning networks 2 3 1

DIY U

New brands and entrants?

So what should Dartmouth faculty do? I don’t know. But if I had to venture… • Accelerate blended learning efforts • Integrate SCVNGR-like approaches into academics • Link students into learning networks • “Flip” the classroom • Others?

Thank You Josh Jarrett, Deputy Director Education – Postsecondary Success josh.jarrett@gatesfoundation.org www.gatesfoundation.org

How Will Dartmouth Still be Relevant in 20 years?