The Leapfrog Factor Clearing the air in Asian cities: The Delhi experience

1. The Leapfrog Factor Clearing the air in Asian cities: The Delhi experience Anumita Roychowdhury Centre for Science and Environment National Urban Air Quality Workshop, Karachi, September 13-14, 2006

2. Asia: The Gas Chamber (Premature Deaths Due to Outdoor Air Pollution) WHO estimates 0.8 million deaths and 4.6 million lost life years every year globally. Two-third of this occurs in Asia.

3. Asia’s unique challenges… underestimating health risks Asiawide PAPA review shows that effects of air pollution are similar to those found in the extensive studies of the West. The risk in India and Asia could be more if factors unique to Asia are considered Extremely high pollution levels and mixture Impact of poverty This has important implication for environmental monitoring strategies and public health policy in India We need strong controls at the early stages of economic development

5. India: Proliferating hotspots More than half of the cities monitored during 2004 recorded critical levels of PM10

6. Some action in big cities arrest pollution Downward PM10 in 5 cities* lead to 13,000 less premature deaths and lower respiratory illness (WB study). Need even stronger action. * * * * * Source: Graph based on NAMP data, CPCB, 1. World Bank 2004, For a Breath of fresh Air

7. Pollution-Vehicle link: A special concern in our cities As vehicles emit within the breathing zone of people – cause high exposure. Evidences mount: The six cities review by the World Bank: vehicles contribute an average 50 percent of the direct PM emissions but 70 per cent of PM exposure. The WHO report of 2005: epidemiological evidences for the adverse health effects of exposure to transport related air pollution is increasing. Some of the deadliest air toxics are found in vehicular exhaust. These are carcinogens. Latency period of toxic risk is long. Effect of today’s exposure will show up later

8. The message: LeapfrogAvoid the polluting pathways of others. Adopt an alternative path that is precautionary and preventive “The Kuznets Curve” Business As Usual Alternative Path Of Progress Pollution Per-Capita GDP

9. Technology roadmap in Delhi and other metros: A long way to go Indian metros today (Euro III)

10. Concern over toxic diesel emissions is driving the technology leapfrog agenda worldwide Singapore: Leapfrogging its diesel emissions standards directly from Euro II to Euro IV in 2006 Japan: “Say No to Diesels” campaign. Sets one of the most stringent global standards China: targets to introduce Euro IV fuels from 2008 in Beijing Hong Kong: In 2000 it became the first in Asia to introduce 50 ppm sulphur diesel Thailand: targets to introduce Euro IV from 2009 onwards Europe: Despite meeting Euro IV std it is pushing for even cleaner diesel vehicles to address the concern over PM and NOx The US: phasing in the most stringent fuel neutral standards in the world South Asia is not even close to catching up

11. Only ultra low sulphur diesel can enable advanced emissions control devices that can cleanse diesel PM But clean diesel is not available in South Asia Source: ICCT

12. Fuel substitution: An opportunity to leapfrog in Delhi and other Asian cities The great CNG order in Delhi • July 28, 1998 - Supreme Court of India orders the CNG program for Delhi • No buses over 8 years old after 4/1/2000 except on CNG • All buses on CNG or other clean fuel by 3/31/2001 • Financial incentives for CNG in taxis, three-wheelers etc. • Increase the number of buses to atleast 10,000

13. What is driving CNG programmes? • Concern over toxic particulate emissions from vehicles • CNG is replacing buses running on poor quality diesel, two-stroke three-wheelers and small trucks for maximum emission gains • Clean fuel programme is linked with augmentation of public bus transport • Liberation from fuel adulteration – an important benefit • Energy security

14. Emissions imperatives: Euro II diesel bus emits nearly 46 times higher PM than Euro II CNG bus in India. Source: Teri

15. Delhi CNG story • Barriers… • Government delayed regulatory measures to implement the programme. Confused issues. • Bus operators delayed compliance. Operators ordered CNG chassis, but refused delivery • “clean diesel” disinformation - emission benefits of ultra-low sulfur diesel + DPF claimed for 500 ppm diesel alone

16. Countering disinformation CNG causes cancer CNG technology is experimental CNG buses are more expensive and will hurt the poor CNG vehicles emit more ultrafine particles There is not enough gas to meet transport demand CNG emits more greenhouse gases CNG vehicles are unsafe We confronted every myth that confounded decision makers, public and media alike

17. The historic verdict • The Supreme Court order of April 5, 2002 – • The Supreme Court fines the Union government for wasting court’s time by repeatedly appealing for dilution of the CNG order • Court impose fines on diesel bus operators • Rs 500/day (about US$11), to Rs 1000/day in 30 days • Operators must take delivery of new buses ordered • Delhi Govt. directed to phase out 800 diesel buses/month • National Govt. to report on measures for extending CNG to other polluted cities

18. RDecember 2002: CNG programme established astructure

19. Lessons for Other Cities • CNG is a viable technology for drastically reducing diesel PM and NOx emissions where natural gas supply/pricing are favorable • Ensure proper implementation -- Need appropriate emissions and safety standards. • Quality control of the design and engineering of OEM buses • Discourage conversion of old diesel buses. If unavoidable enforce stringent quality control measures • Need specially designed inspection and maintenance programs • Large-scale change in vehicle fleet is possible in a surprisingly short time if the incentives/prices are right (carrot and stick). • Design appropriate refuelling network

20. What has Delhi achieved since 1998? On fuel quality 500 ppm sulphur fuels in 2000 and 350 ppm sulphur fuels in 2005 Petrolwith 1 per cent benzene Mandated pre-mix petrol to two- and three-wheelers On vehicle technology Euro II emissions standards in 2000, five years ahead of schedule and Euro III in 2005 On alternative fuels Implemented largest ever CNG programme – more than 100,000 CNG vehicles in one city within a span of 5 years Largest ever public transport bus fleet on clean fuels – 10,600 CNG buses Other cross cutting policy measures Improved air quality monitoring (Begun monitoring of PM2.5 and air toxics) Strengthened vehicle inspection programme (Implemented improved CO and HC norms and begun a pilot phase of lambda measurement) Efforts made to bypass transit traffic Set up independent fuel testing laboratoriesto check fuel adulteration

21. Impact on air quality Particulate pollution stabilised

22. Delhi SO2 levels Dips further

23. Delhi CO levels Lower despite vehicle growth

24. Delhi: The future pollution challenge Particulate levels (PM10) though stabilised are still very high

25. NOx levels Though below standards in most stations, rising steadily. Strong impact of traffic. Source: Computed from Central Pollution Control Board Air Quality Data

26. Delhi reflects the national crisis: While PM levels remain high NOx begins to rise (NOx levels in several cities of India 1998-2003)

27. New challenge: Explosive numbers of vehicles threaten to undo the small gains in Delhi 2001 and 2021: population expected to grow by 67 per cent. Vehicular trips per day by 131 per cent Delhi’s road network increased nearly three times from 1971-72 to 2000-01, but vehicle numbers have increased 16 times Delhi already has more than 4 million vehicles. Numbers rising rapidly. Around 385 personal four-wheelers and 569 two-wheelers are registered every day in Delhi Crawling peak hour traffic. Severe pollution, congestion and energy impacts

28. MOBILITY CRISIS MPW

29. Time for second generation reforms in Delhi • Mobility management

30. Personal vehicles use more road space, pollute more, meet less travel demand Note: * one car is equal to one PCU, 1 bus = 2.5 PCU, 1 scooter = 0.75 PCU Source: Anon 2003, Draft urban transport policy, Ministry of Urban Development, Delhi

31. Modal split: Yet our cities are differentWhile personal vehicles form over 90 per cent of all vehicles, bus transport still meets over 60 to 80 per cent of the travel demand. Build on this strength Modal split in percent Source: World Bank 2002

32. Joint traffic survey on HCBS corridor in Delhi reconfirms that our cities are different Bicycles: 17% of the fleet -- meets 19% of the travel demand Motorised traffic (Cars and 2 wheelers) 75% of the fleet -- meets 20% of the travel demand Buses: 8% of the fleet but meets 61% of the travel demand A joint survey by CSE, RITES and Delhi IIT, 2006

33. Delhi’s transport challenge By 2021 - even with present bus services, and implementation of metro rail and integrated rail and bus transport (IRBT) there will be a shortfall of nine million trips per day. Need good public transport system to leverage change Implementation of the metro rail system has already begun in Delhi Delhi government has developed a transport plan to meet the explosive demand and proposes the following public transport projects: -- The high capacity bus system with dedicated corridors -- The monorail -- The electric trolley bus system -- Integrated rail-cum-bus transit High capacity bus rapid transit is being implemented as the priority project in Delhi

34. Wrong policies undermine public transport:Buses are taxed higher than cars Total tax per vehicle-km In Rs

35. Only provision of public transportation is not enough. Integrate all forms of transport. The city needs to integrate all forms of transport to maximise access and mobility Without easy transfers from one mode to the other passenger demand for each mode can remain small. Travel cost can increase. Poor coordination can seriously hamper operations Need good management system to create the interface for different modes of transport

36. The Way AheadSecond generation reforms needed in Delhi and other Indian cities Leapfrog technology roadmap Leapfrog emissions and fuel standards. Get clean diesel or restrict dieselisation. Improve two wheelers emissions. Expand alternative fuel fleet Reinvent Mobility Build public transport to leverage change Manage mobility Restrain cars Use direct levers like parking policy Fuel economy standards Other measures: Effective I&M and emissions warranty. Use strong fiscal incentive for change Improve air and health surveillance

37. Thank You