NOAA, National Weather Service Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center Briefing

1. NOAA, National Weather ServiceMiddle Atlantic River Forecast Center Briefing 10am June 6, 2013

2. Key Messages • Tropical Storm Andrea expected to bring heavy rains to Eastern PA, southeastern NY, NJ, eastern MD and eastern VA. • Mainstem River forecasts at this time are not indicating flooding. • Much uncertainty remains and this event is being monitored closely. • Expect updates to river forecasts through this event.

3. Timing of rain & flooding • Rain today but the heavier rains from Andrea will arrive Friday. • Timing of any river flooding would be through the weekend.

4. Rain on the ground • The Upper James River basin in southern Virginia had already received an inch and a half by 9am.

5. Additional Rain • This is the 72 hour total rainfall expected. This is the entire event for Andrea. • The rains from Andrea will occur on Friday. • Heaviest amounts in excess of 3” are forecast for NJ and the mid & lower Delaware River Basin.

6. River Forecasts • Morning river forecasts are still being completed at this time. • For a large part of the Mid-Atlantic region rivers are at or below normal and there hasn’t been recent heavy rain. Those are helpful factors in lessening flooding. • Most of our rises should be no higher than action or caution stage. Minor flooding is possible at isolated headwater locations. But look for updates to our forecasts as this event evolves.

7. Uncertainty • There is still much uncertainty on where the rain bands from Andrea will set-up in the Mid-Atlantic region. • As with all tropical systems, rain and flooding can occur hundreds of miles away from the storm path. • Please continue to check river forecasts for the latest updates at http://water.weather.gov

8. Flood Outlook • The Flood Outlook looks at the possibility for moderate to major flooding. There is a possibility for significant flooding this weekend. • Headwaters and smaller streams are especially vulnerable to larger river rises. • This product is updated daily around 2pm.

9. MARFC Status • MARFC plans to begin 24 hour operations 6am Friday. • MARFC is actively coordinating with our NWS Weather Forecast Offices and partners.

10. Remember • MARFC graphics & info do not contain the entire flood threat. See info from your local NWS Weather Forecast Office for watches & warnings, flash flooding, storm surge, etc..

11. Flood Inundation Maps • Excellent resource to understand your flood risk. Can be used to plan evacuation routes & travel. • Available at http://water.weather.gov for these points: • Saddle River at Lodi, NJ • West Branch Susquehanna River at Jersey Shore, PA • Delaware River at: • Matamoras/Port Jervis • Belvidere • Easton • Frenchtown • New Hope/Lambertville • Riegelsville • Stockton • Trenton Others are available at http://maps.srbc.net/simv/

12. Need more info? • Contact your local NWS Weather Forecast Office • Binghamton, NY http://weather.gov/bgm • Blacksburg, VA http://weather.gov/rnk • Mt Holly, NJ http://weather.gov/phi • State College, PA http://weather.gov/ctp • New York City, NY http://weather.gov/okx • Sterling, VA http://weather.gov/lwx • Wakefield, VA http://weather.gov/akq

13. Find MARFC Online at: • Homepage: http://weather.gov/marfc • Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.MARFC.gov • Twitter @NWSMARFC

14. Next MARFC Briefing The next MARFC briefing slide package will be sent this afternoon between 3 and 4pm.