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Measure of System Effectiveness Missile Defense System

Measure of System Effectiveness Missile Defense System. By Alfred Terris 054 3010050 terris@zahav.net.il . Method for Estimating Effectiveness of a Missile Defense System .

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Measure of System Effectiveness Missile Defense System

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  1. Measure of System EffectivenessMissile Defense System By Alfred Terris 054 3010050 terris@zahav.net.il UNCL:ASSIFIED

  2. Method for Estimating Effectiveness of a Missile Defense System Utilization of Time Estimates of Processes in order to Determine the Effectiveness of a Missile Defense System against a given type of Threat UNCL:ASSIFIED

  3. Definition • System Effectiveness: Number of enemy threats destroyed in a continuous wave attack - no time interval between enemy threats. (This is a type of attack that can be initiated from a multiple rocket launcher mounted on a vehicle UNCL:ASSIFIED

  4. Phases of Threat Engagement • Detection and Classification of the Threat • Decision to Engage the Threat (Assign Weapon to Threat) • Assess Results of Engagement (Reengage Same Threat or new Threat) UNCL:ASSIFIED

  5. Phase 1 – Detection and classification of the Threat • This phase starts with the threat at range at which it can be detected with a given single scan probability (e.g. 90%). This requires a knowledge of: • the target characteristics (cross-section), • search system characteristics (scan time, beam size, receiver sensitivity, power) • This phase includes the functions of threat analysis (can this threat be intercepted by the defensive system), assigning the threat to a defensive system UNCL:ASSIFIED

  6. Phase 2 – Decision to Intercept Enemy Missile • Tracking of Target By Weapon Control Sensor • Decision to Launch Interceptor based upon geometry, evaluation of situation UNCL:ASSIFIED

  7. Phase 3 - Destroy Enemy Missile • Launch Interceptor missile or employ other suitable means to destroy enemy missile • Evaluate effectiveness of weapon (is enemy missile intact?) • If enemy missile is intact, can it be reengaged prior to arriving at its target? UNCL:ASSIFIED

  8. Phase 3 - Destroy Enemy Missile (Continued) • Engage Next Enemy Missile in Sequence • Designate next enemy missile to Interceptor • Launch Interceptor missile or employ other suitable means to destroy enemy missile UNCL:ASSIFIED

  9. Attack Geometry & Sequence Sequence of Events Geometry UNCL:ASSIFIED

  10. Methodology Requires Designers To Provide Parameters/Error Sources • Probability of Single Scan Detection (function of power, pulses on target per scan, ECM, etc) • Time to establish target path vs accuracy • Alignment errors between search and missile guidance radar • Missile kill probability vs expected miss • And others UNCL:ASSIFIED

  11. Flexibility of Methodology • Methodology can be implemented in the form of differential equations and resultant analytic solutions • Methodology can be implemented in the form of a simulation UNCL:ASSIFIED

  12. Lessons To Be Learned • Which system parameters, if improved, provide the greatest system improvement • Does the expected system performance justify the cost of the system • Sensitivity of system performance to small changes in threat parameters UNCL:ASSIFIED

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