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Russia’s Foreign Policy in Northeast Asia. Mikhail A. Molchanov Associate Professor Department of Political Science St. Thomas University, Fredericton, Canada Visiting Scholar, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan molchan@stu.ca. Grand narratives. Utopian globalism: Gorbachev
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Russia’s Foreign Policy in Northeast Asia Mikhail A. Molchanov Associate Professor Department of Political Science St. Thomas University, Fredericton, Canada Visiting Scholar, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan molchan@stu.ca
Grand narratives • Utopian globalism: Gorbachev • Primitive westernism: Yeltsin-Kozyrev • Eurasianism: Primakov (1995-99) • Pragmatism: Putin I • Nationalism/Eurasianism : Putin II • Back to pragmatism and global engagement?
Key Priorities • Sovereignty and territorial integrity • Reclaiming the status of a global power • Multilateralism/multipolarity (UN, UNSC) • Economic development • International and regional stability • Active neighborhood policies
Regional priorities • Integration in the framework of the CIS • Developing ties with the EU • Containing NATO’s growth • Reviving the Russia-US dialogue • The Asia-Pacific integration (APEC, ARF, SCO) • Strategic partnerships with China and India
Russia’s trade with North-East Asia Source: Goskomstat RF
Structure of foreign trade (%) Source: Federal Customs Service, RF
Largest reserves holdings 2007 WDI; IMF; Reuters; CIA; countries
Main security concerns • Expansion of NATO: Georgia, Ukraine • U.S. Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) in Europe • Chinese demographic and economic expansion in RFE (unvoiced) • Political Islam, terrorism and separatism • Nuclear proliferation • Global economic vulnerabilities
Russian defense expenditure Source: SIPRI database
China’s growth Balancing or bandwagoning? US & NATO expansion Balancing/engaging Unrealized potential in relations with Japan Separating politics from economics The two Koreas The trade/security nexus UN/UNSC N Korea; Six-party talks Japan’s bid for UNSC G7/G8 Hokkaido Toyako summit Russia’s 2006 presidency SCO / CSTO APEC / WTO ASEAN /ARF ACD, EAS, others Regional policy driversBilateralMultilateral
Russo-Korean relations: Politics • Key concern – security • Denuclearization of the peninsula: the “Ukraine model” • Equal relationship with both Koreas • Conflict prevention (security cost) • Stability at the borders • Nuclear non-proliferation in NE Asia: Japan, ROK, Taiwan • Geopolitics and the balance of power • Reaffirming Russia’s relevance in NEA • Checking the US hegemonic ambitions • Soft-balancing China together with the South • Establishing spheres of influence in the North
Russo-Korean relations: Economy • Korea as Russia’s gate to NE Asia • The “Europe-Korea” railway link (TSR/TKR) • Unified energy system for continental NEA • Gas/oil trade, E&D (Sakhalin/Kamchatka) • A bridgehead to Asia Pacific • A market for high value-added exports • A partner in the development of RFE
Relations with Japan: Key areas • “Creative partnership” • Trade/investment/technology • Law enforcement, defense and security • Cultural and interpersonal exchange • Political dialogue, international cooperation, peace treaty • Problem issues • Japan’s “territorial claims” • Insufficient level of trade & investments
Trade grows 30-40% a year Reached $19 bln in 2007 Industry leaders started taking interest in Russia Automotive: Toyota (2005), Nissan-Suzuki-Isuzu (2006-07) Banks: Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Mizuho, Mitsui Sumitomo (2005-2006) Program of development of the Far East and Trans-Baikal region up to 2013 Russian sovereign funds look to invest in Japan Investment < 2% total cumulative $2960.4 mln direct $292.8 mln Sakhalin II: A traumatic experience for Japan The East Siberia-Pacific Ocean Oil Pipeline: A prolonged debate Skovorodino (China) first By rail to Kozmino Bay (Japan) second Japanese SME in Russia suffer from regulatory burden and corruption Relations with Japan: EconomyStrengths Weaknesses
China: “a relationship of trust” • Drivers: • First, Russia’s fear, then – admiration • Same vision of key global issues • Economic incentives on both sides • Resisting American hegemonism • Geopolitical positioning in the world and vis-à-vis each other • Super-task: emulating China’s success • Present goals: security, stability, regime preservation, rebuilding of the state, economic revival • Instruments: trade, political and military cooperation, strategic uses of state-led regionalism in Eurasia
Trade and investment • Trade: 2006 - $28.7 bln; 2007 - $40.3 bln, 41-48% growth/year • Goal – US$ 60+ bln by 2010 • Interregional ties: 70 out of 89 Russian provinces have direct contacts with their Chinese counterparts. • Good outlook for the future - $5.2bln in trade contracts in 03-10/2007, incl. $500mln to Russia’s machine building industry • Oil – 10 mln ton exported in 2007 (10% of Chinese demand, 4th place in the Chinese market after Saudi Arabia, Angola, and Iran • Gas – an agreement to export 30-38 bln m3/a • Chinese investments in Russia ($5bln pledged) – capital construction, pulp mills, agriculture. Potentially - port renovation & infrastructure projects (Vladivostok-2012, Sochi-2014). By Nov 2007: $1.6 bln in accumulated bilateral investment (Russia’s inward>90%). The goal is $12bln by 2020.
Political and military aspects • Treaty of Good-Neighborliness, Friendship, and Cooperation (2001) • Arts. 7-9 on security-related cooperation • The Outline on Implementing the Treaty (2005-2008) • Borders no longer an issue (Oct. 2004) • But Chinese demographic and economic pressure remains: 108 mln in 3 NE provinces vs 27 mln in all of Siberia/RFE • Joint military exercises became routine • Russia’s arms have modernized PLA • Chinese purchases saved Russian military-industrial complex • New tensions over co-production, licensing • Putin: military cooperation "will continue” (03/2007)
Shanghai Cooperation Organization • Neither the “Chinese” nor the “Russian” tool • interdependence, complementary interests • Central Asians not easy to push around • From confidence building measures to a multifunctional regional club in 5 years • A new “geopolitical axis” or “we did not plan it that way”? • Prospects for the future: “deepening before widening” • The Iran controversy • India vs Pakistan • Diverging attitudes toward the West
Public opinion and foreign policy • What is Russia? • A part of Europe, their 21st century destinies will be closely intertwined – 38% • Not quite European, but a unique Eurasian civilization; in the future, its interests will be shifting to the East – 45% • Russia’s rise and strengthening • Is a threat to the European nations, which do not want this to happen – 49% • Answers the interests of the European nations, since Europe is our common home – 34% • Positive (negative) associations (%): • Europe: 77 (11), CIS: 59 (21), EU: 56 (18), Asia: 56 (24), the UN: 55 (21), the West: 52 (31), WTO: 49 (19), America: 34 (50), NATO: 19 (57) VTsIOM, March 2007 national poll N=1600, p<3.4%
Conclusion • Is there a Russian strategy for Asia? • Yes: Putin’s plan, Medvedev’s career • No: inconsistencies, lack of planning • Eurasian regionalism – the main avenue for Russia’s great power revival • SCO remains the key • CIS – Medvedev’s first priority • RFE – “we need to develop, finally, the system of state policies toward the Far East” (Medvedev, 07/02/2008)