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The global metabolic transition: Changes in material use in Asia, Europe and North America

The global metabolic transition: Changes in material use in Asia, Europe and North America. Fridolin Krausmann, Simone Gingrich & Sylvia Gierlinger. Overview. The metabolic transition Material flow database Global trends in material use Material flows in UK, Japan and USA

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The global metabolic transition: Changes in material use in Asia, Europe and North America

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  1. The global metabolic transition:Changes in material use in Asia, Europe and North America Fridolin Krausmann, Simone Gingrich & Sylvia Gierlinger Conference of the European Society for Environmental History | Turku 28.06. – 01.07.2011

  2. Overview • The metabolic transition • Material flow database • Global trends in material use • Material flows in UK, Japan and USA • Industrial vs. industrializing countries • Concluding remarks Krausmann et al.| ESEH Turku| 30.06.2011

  3. Energy flows Human labour Biomass Fossil Energy The metabolic transition From tapping solar flows to... Agricultural population Non-agricultural population Land use Production Photosynthesis

  4. Energy flows Human labour Biomass Fossil Energy The metabolic transition ....to exploiting fossil stocks Agricultural population Urban-industr. population Production Land use Photosynthesis Fossil energy

  5. The metabolic transition The hypothesis of the metabolic transition is derived from historical evidence and claims that industrialization is related to fundamental and characteristic changes in the structure and size of social metabolism: • The transformation of the energy system: from solar based and land related (food, feed, wood) to fossil fuel based; from tapping flows to exploiting stocks • Changing relation of land use and energy: agriculture changes from an „energy source“ to a sink of energy • Absolute growth of population, material and energy use • Relative (per capita) growth of material and energy use • Characteristic metabolic profiles of agrarian and industrial socioecological regimes Krausmann et al.| ESEH Turku| 30.06.2011

  6. Material flow database • Material Flow Accounting (MFA); based on Eurostat 2009 and OECD 2008. Advancements for historical application • Flows: • Used extraction of materials, • Imports and Exports • The database distinguishes ca. 60 material groups at the most detailed level; all flows in [t/yr]; • Regions and time period covered: • 175 countries in 10 year intervals from 1950 to present • 60 countries in annual resolution from 1970 to present • UK, USA, Japan, World in annual resolution from 1850/1900 to present • Data sources: National and international statistical sources; models to estimate and crosscheck flows of specific materials Krausmann et al.| ESEH Turku| 30.06.2011

  7. Material flow accounting (MFA) • MFA derived Indicators: • Domestic Extraction of raw materials • Imports and exports of raw materials, semimanufactured and manufactures products • Domestic Material Consumption (DMC) = Domestic Extraction + Imports – Exports • Physical Trade Balance (PTB) = Imports - Exports Krausmann et al. ESEH Turku | 30.06.2011

  8. Global trends in material use, 1900-2005 Material use (DMC) Material and energy use per capita Oil price shocks Material/cap/yr WWII Energy/cap/yr WEC Krausmann et al.| ESEH Turku| 30.06.2011

  9. Material use, population and GDP Metabolic Rate: Material use per capita Material Intensity: Material use per GDP Biomass Mineral/fossil Biomass Mineral/fossil Krausmann et al.| ESEH Turku| 30.06.2011

  10. UK, USA and Japan: Three leading economies • United Kingdom (UK): Starting point of the industrial revolution; leading economy of the 18th and 19th century • United States (USA): New World; overtakes the UK as the leading economy around 1900. Largest economy of the 20th century • Japan (J): Late comer; rapid industrialization process after WWII • The three countries produce 30% of the global GDP in 2005 Income [GDP/cap/yr] USA UK Japan Based on Maddison 2008 Krausmann et al.| ESEH Turku| 30.06.2011

  11. Development of DMC, 1852/70-2005 United Kingdom USA Japan 1973 1973 1973 1917 1929 1941 Sources: UK: Based on Schandl/Schulz 2002 & Eurostat 2009 USA: Gierlinger/Krausmann 2011 Japan: Krausmann/Gingrich/Nourbach-Sabeth 2011 Krausmann et al.| ESEH Turku| 30.06.2011

  12. Development of DMC, 1852/70-2005Metabolic rate: DMC/cap/yr United Kingdom USA Japan Sources: UK: Based on Schandl/Schulz 2002 & Eurostat 2009 USA: Gierlinger/Krausmann 2011 Japan: Krausmann/Gingrich/Nourbach-Sabeth 2011 Krausmann et al.| ESEH Turku| 30.06.2011

  13. Physical trade balance 1852/70-2005:negative: net exports; positive: net imports United Kingdom USA Japan Sources: UK: Based on Schandl/Schulz 2002 & Eurostat 2009 USA: Gierlinger/Krausmann 2011 Japan: Krausmann/Gingrich/Nourbach-Sabeth 2011 Krausmann et al.| ESEH Turku| 30.06.2011

  14. Material intensity: DMC/GDP DMCminerals/fossils per GDP DMCtotal per GDP 1918 USA 1881 1973 UK Japan Krausmann et al.| ESEH Turku| 30.06.2011

  15. Global significance of UK, USA and Japan Krausmann et al.| ESEH Turku| 30.06.2011

  16. Growing Giants: Material use in India Material use (DMC) Material use (DMC/cap/yr) Source: India: Singh et al. 2011 Krausmann et al.| ESEH Turku| 30.06.2011

  17. Concluding remarks • The metabolic transition entails a shift from biomass towards fossil and mineral resources. Biomass use is linked to population; fossil and mineral materials to GDP • The emerging industrial metabolism did not replace the agrarian metabolism, but added on top of it. • Materialization of the economy can be a very fast process; dematerialization is a slow process. • Periods in which infrastructures and large industries are built up are crucial for the development of the industrial metabolic pattern. These structures impose important legacies for long term development. Krausmann et al.| ESEH Turku| 30.06.2011

  18. Data available for download: http://www.uni-klu.ac.at/socec/inhalt/1088.htm • Publications: • Krausmann, F. (Ed.). 2011. The global metabolictransition. Long termhistoricaltrendsandpatterns in global material andenergyuse. Social Ecology Working Paper 131. Inst. ofSocial Ecology, Vienna: http://www.uni-klu.ac.at/socec/eng/inhalt/338.htm • Krausmann, F., Gingrich, S., Eisenmenger, N., Erb, K.H., Haberl, H., Fischer-Kowalski, M. 2009. Growth in global materials use, GDP and population during the 20th century,Ecological Economics 68 (10). 2696-2705. • Krausmann, F., Gingrich, S., Nourbakhch-Sabet, R., 2011. The metabolic transition in Japan: A material flow account for the period 1878 to 2005. Journal of Industrial Ecology (in print). • Gierlinger, S. and Krausmann, F., 2011. The physical economy of the United States of America: Extraction, trade and consumption of materials from 1870 to 2005. Journal of Industrial Ecology (in print). Krausmann et al.| ESEH Turku| 30.06.2011

  19. Thank you for your attention! Krausmann et al. ESEH Turku | 30.06.2011

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