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Update on the Kentucky Economy

Update on the Kentucky Economy. Churchill Tax Free Fund Annual Shareholders Meeting April 25, 2008. Nationally – It was quite a year. High gasoline prices Subprime lending crisis/banking Housing weakness Slowdown in GDP. To see what’s happened in Kentucky’s economy

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Update on the Kentucky Economy

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  1. Update on theKentucky Economy Churchill Tax Free Fund Annual Shareholders Meeting April 25, 2008

  2. Nationally – It was quite a year • High gasoline prices • Subprime lending crisis/banking • Housing weakness • Slowdown in GDP

  3. To see what’s happened in Kentucky’s economy Let’s put it in a historical context

  4. Kentucky’s Economy“A Quick History” 1980-1984 Major Recession Heavy job loss 1984-2000 Strong job growth Strong income growth Employment/Income growth greater than U.S.

  5. THEN November 2000 – The light switch . . . July 2003 – Job losses • Manufacturing • Telecommunications • Utilities

  6. UPDATE 2004 – 2007 Decent growth-Not great • Growth in business services • Growth in health care • Some defense related growth • COAL • Loss of manufacturing jobs

  7. KY Employmentis Growing Strongly Nonfarm employment in thousands March 2007: 1,858.8 March 2006: 1,839.7 March 2000: 1,831.6 December 2007: 1,857.3 July 2003: 1,775.3 January 2007: 1,854.3

  8. Manufacturing Employmentin KY Continues to be a Concern in thousands January 2006: 261.8 December 2007: 252.7

  9. Update 2007 • Employment Gain +3,000 jobs (+0.2%) Manufacturing -8,200 jobs (-3.1%) • So, we continue in trading jobs • Manufacturing (high wage) For • Services (some high, some low) • Healthcare • Business • Retail • Income growth, but less than National average

  10. And We Will Try One More Time to Guess the Future Kentucky Outlook • Continued modest employment growth (Less than 1.0%) • OK income growth (Around 5%) • Below U.S. • Housing slow • Energy concerns • Continued state budget issues • Expenditure side of budget • Pension Liability • Other

  11. More of the Same OK – Not Great

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