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Update on the Kentucky Economy

Update on the Kentucky Economy. Dr. James R. Ramsey April 26, 2012. Honored to serve as a Trustee of the Churchill Tax-Free Fund of Kentucky since its inception in 1987. In 2010 we were coming out of a recesssion, so we thought 2011 would be better Yet….

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Update on the Kentucky Economy

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  1. Update on theKentucky Economy Dr. James R. Ramsey April 26, 2012

  2. Honored to serve as a Trustee of the Churchill Tax-Free Fund of Kentucky since its inception in 1987

  3. In 2010 we were coming out of a recesssion, so we thought 2011 would be better Yet…

  4. 2011 (Did Not Go According to Plan) • “Black Swans” of 2011 • Earthquakes/floods • Fukushima Daiichi Plant • European implosion • US downgrade • Gadhafi, Mubarak & Berlusconi gone • So… • Economy did not grow as expected

  5. We Know That Nationally Times Have Been Unprecedented 2011 Very slow recovery 3.0% 1.7%

  6. In Kentucky, things were not gangbusters, but was better in 2011 than 2010

  7. Kentucky Non-Agriculture Employment February 2012(employment in thousands) 51,000 job loss Notes – 1 – Most people employed since December 2008 2 – 2011 added 20,000 jobs 3 – 2012 off to great start (17,000) 4 – Still 51,000 fewer people working today

  8. Kentucky Manufacturing Employment February 2012(employment in thousands) • Economy • Productivity gains • Offshore

  9. Manufacturing Employment Declines % of Manufacturing Jobs in Kentucky

  10. Kentucky Employment February 2012(employment in thousands) Manufacturing Education & Health Services

  11. Recessionary impact not as bad in Kentucky as some other states We hit bottom and are coming back (albeit slowly) Have regained a little over half of the jobs lost during recession Where will future jobs come from? Healthcare Logistics Advanced manufacturing Business Services Energy Impact on state budget – state services Improving revenue growth- modest But structural imbalance: spending growth > revenue growth Observation’s on Kentucky’s Economy April 2012

  12. Rather Than Investing In Higher Education • Revenue growth FY 07-12 – 1.1% • Expenditures – the bad news • Some History • Structural Imbalance still exists %

  13. Nice (not great) recovery continues in Kentucky We will continue to add jobs, but … probably late 2013 before we return to job level of late 2007, still… Jobs of the future different than jobs of the past Continue to face difficult public policy choices that impact our long term future Forecasting / Guessing The Future

  14. Since forecasting is a tough business. I am going to keep my day job at least one more year. Reminder

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