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Bureau of Meteorology Activities as a GPC of Long Range Forecasts

Bureau of Meteorology Activities as a GPC of Long Range Forecasts. Dr David Jones d.jones@bom.gov.au Australian Bureau of Meteorology CBS Expert Team on Extended and Long Range Forecasting Geneva, Switzerland, 26-30 March 2012 Acknowledgement

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Bureau of Meteorology Activities as a GPC of Long Range Forecasts

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  1. Bureau of Meteorology Activities as a GPC of Long Range Forecasts Dr David Jones d.jones@bom.gov.au Australian Bureau of Meteorology CBS Expert Team on Extended and Long Range Forecasting Geneva, Switzerland, 26-30 March 2012 Acknowledgement Oscar Alves, Andrew Watkins, Lynette Bettio, Elise Chandler & Andrew Charles

  2. Long Range Forecast Service Delivering useful long range predictions for Australia and WMO member countries • Current seasonal outlooks for Australia based on a statistical model • Probability of rainfall/temperature in Tercile/Above Below Median categories • Trial of dynamical model forecasts. • Statistical monitoring and prediction of Intraseasonal Variability • Current phase and amplitude of the MJO • Prediction for winds, rainfall, convection, pressure for the coming weeks • Dynamical model predictions for ocean conditions & experimentally for climate variables over land • Focus on the Pacific and Indian Oceans • Developing direct model forecasts for rainfall and temperature

  3. Recent POAMA 2.4 improvements • POAMA2.4 became fully operational in October 2011 • T47L17 + improved physics (land surface, radiation, gravity wave drag, cloud microphysics, etc) • Land surface scheme (ALI) is more realistic and initialized daily • Increased number of ensemble members of hind-cast (30 member) over the last 30 years (updated in real-time), providing better hindcast skill estimates • Real-time forecasts (30 ensemble members per month) since July 2011 run twice monthly. Moving to a 1981 to 2010 base period • Improved accessibility – OpenDAP server http://opendap.bom.gov.au:8080/thredds/bmrc-poama-catalog.html • Pseudo multimodel ensemble

  4. POAMA=Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia Forecasts run for 9 months Atmospheric model: Horizontal resolution ~250km 17 vertical levels Ocean model: Zonal resolution ~220 km Meridional resolution ~55km (tropics) to ~165 km (poles) 25 vertical levels The Coupled Model: Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia Australian Community Ocean Model (ACOM) v2 POAMA BoM Atmospheric Model (BAM) v3 Simple land-surface model = + +

  5. Plans for POAMA/ACCESS versions P2.4 Operational P2.4 Full Seasonal System M2.4 Enhanced ensemble generation M2.4 multi-week system in operations M2.4 Seamless Multi-week/First Seasonal only System in operations ? Done Future Operational M2.4 Seamless Multi-week/Full Seasonal System ~1-3 months P2.5 Coupled DA/ensemble generation Operational P2.5 multi-week system in operations (may bipass) ~6-9 months Operational P2.5 Seamless multiweek/seasonal ~6-12months P3.0 ACCESS Based higher resolution system Operational P3.0 multi-week system ~2 years Operational P3.0 Seamless multiweek/seasonal ~4 years

  6. Public Website Operational Products: SSTs, NINO 3,3.4,4 & IOD available

  7. Pacific SST skill: Temporal correlation of monthly SSTA POAMA-2 POAMA-1.5 Correlation Forecast Lead time (months) ECMWF System 3 Frontier Research Centre Model (Japan) NCEP Climate forecast system V1 & 2 POAMA 1.5 & 2

  8. POAMA skill - Rainfall Correlation with (CMAP) Rainfall How well does POAMA do with the rainfall patterns? Highest correlation is found in the equatorial Pacific and parts of the southwest Pacific…..

  9. POAMA-1.5 POAMA-2 Predicting the MJO Index Skillful prediction of the MJO out to…. All seasons:

  10. Producing Reliable Forecasts: Calibration Raw rainfall forecasts (lower Tercile) across the tropical Pacific Calibrated (IOV) forecasts – better reliability but lower skill.

  11. Architecture for Seasonal Forecast Generation and Publication System

  12. The Bureau as a GPC Hindcasts verified following the LRFVS Real time forecasts

  13. Developing a GPC Seasonal Prediction Portal • The Seasonal Prediction Portal provides access to outlooks for • Broad scale fields • Climate drivers (ENSO) • Rainfall and temperature tercile probabilities for selected sites • Hindcast skill scores for all outlooks • Focus on the Pacific http://poama.bom.gov.au/experimental/pasap/

  14. Capacity Building • Extensive training of the Pacific NMS personnel during in-country visits • PASAP/PI-CPP joint workshops – Auckland, New Zealand (Sept 2010) and Port Vila, Vanuatu (Sept 2011)

  15. The Bureau as a GPC • The BoM is a producer of LRFs, following a fixed time schedule • Products are available to other GPCs, RCCs and NMHSs • Forecasts provided to the LRF Lead Centre and APCC • Hindcasts have been verified following the Standardized Verification System • Systems are scientifically documented • The Bureau does not yet have a GPC website • The BoM is heavily involved in training and capacity building activities in the South Pacific: • Pacific Islands Climate Prediction Project • Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program (delivering dynamical season outlooks for Pacific Island countries) • Pacific Climate Change Science Program • Opportunity for additional supported projects • Developing forecasts for extreme events – TCs, Coral Bleaching, high sea level

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