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Acid Rain Cooperation in Europe. The Problem. Svante Oden (1968): “The Acidification of Air and Precipitation and its Consequences.” SOx, NOx -> transported over the continent ->form acids in precipitation or dry form
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The Problem • Svante Oden (1968): “The Acidification of Air and Precipitation and its Consequences.” • SOx, NOx -> transported over the continent ->form acids in precipitation or dry form • Damage to health, forests, lakes, soils, ecosystems – particularly in Sweden, Norway • International environmental externality
The Actors • Leaders: Sweden, Norway • 1972 Conference on the Human Environment • Laggards: UK, Germany, Communist Eastern Europe
The Breakthrough • 1975 Helsinki Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe • USSR and US interested in détente • Environment the most convenient object of cooperation • Scandinavians saw an opportunity, so did Canada • The UN Economic Commission for Europe –lead agency • Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution Convention (LRTAP), 1979 • EMEP Protocol (1984)
More Lead Actors • West Germany: the death of the Black Forest • 30% club: Scandinavians, W. Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Canada, France • The First Sulfur Protocol (1985): • 30% of 1980 emissions by 1993
The Protocols • The Nitrogen Oxides Protocol (1988) • Freeze emissions at 1987 levels by 1995 • VOC Protocol (1991) • 30% of emissions (base b/w 1984 and 1990) by 1999. • The Second Sulfur Protocol (1994) • Differentiated targets bases on critical loads for acidification for 2000 and 2010;technology standards • The Protocol on Heavy Metals (1998 ) • The Protocol on POPs (1998) • Gothenburg Multipollutant Protocol (1999)
Regulatory Innovation • Critical loads: “the highest load that will not cause chemical changes leading to long-term harmful effects on the most sensitive ecological ecosystems” (Levy 1995, p. 61). Why negotiate on the basis of critical loads estimates?
Critical Loads for Acid Deposition(red-high sensitivity, blue –low)
The RAINS Model Integrate science in international policy • Emissions module • Cost module • Dispersion module • Effects module (critical loads)
Second Sulfur Protocol:Correlation of SO2 Emission Ceilings and RAINS Recommendations
Second Sulfur Protocol (1994) • 60% gap closure against critical loads • Differentiated targets • Requirement to apply BAT, achieve up to 90% desulfurization of emissions from large sources
The Gothenburg Protocol (1999) • Multiple effects: Acidification, Eutrophication and Ground-level Ozone • Multiple pollutants: emission ceilings for SOx, NOx, VOCs and ammonia (NH3) by 2010 • Based on RAINS outputs • Emission limits for large combustion sources, dry cleaning, cars, trucks based on BAT • If implemented, Europe’s sulfur emissions should be cut by 63%, its NOx by 41%, VOC by 40%, and ammonia by 17% compared to 1990.
Model Input vs. Protocol: SO2 1600 Poland 1400 1200 1000 Romania Bulgaria Spain Protocol (accepted terms) 800 UK Hungary 600 Italy German Greece y 400 France 200 0 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 J1 (final scenario from RAINS) Gothenburg Protocol: Correlation of SO2 emission ceilings and RAINS Recommendations
EU Directives • Large Combustion Plant Directive (1988) • Large Combustion Plant Directive II (2001) • National Emissions Ceilings Directive (2001)
Acid Rain Cooperation in Europe Success or least common denominator agreements?
ConclusionsWhat facilitates cooperation? • Information: change of strategies/interests • Issue linkage (both within regime and other regimes e.g. EU) • Science-policy linkage • Small number of actors – easier to overcome collective action problems