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A Real-Time Air Quality Modelling System for Hong Kong and its Vicinity

A Real-Time Air Quality Modelling System for Hong Kong and its Vicinity. Christopher Fung and Linda Yu Air Modelling Section, EPD Better Air Quality Workshop 2006, December 2006, Yogyakarta, Indonesia. Issues to Address to Simulate Air Quality in HK and Vicinity.

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A Real-Time Air Quality Modelling System for Hong Kong and its Vicinity

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  1. A Real-Time Air Quality Modelling System for Hong Kong and its Vicinity Christopher Fung and Linda Yu Air Modelling Section, EPD Better Air Quality Workshop 2006, December 2006, Yogyakarta, Indonesia

  2. Issues to Address to Simulate Air Quality in HK and Vicinity • Different temporal and spatial scales of interactions (wind, emissions, chemistry) • Irregular terrain and land use • Land-sea interaction in synoptic features • Photo-chemistry involving many species • Significant trans-boundary transport • Scarcity of some input and validation data

  3. PATH (Pollutants in the Atmosphere and their Transport over Hongkong) in historical perspective • Hong Kong EPD focused on ‘local scale’ modeling in the 80’s and early 90’s with the use of Gaussian type models • Construction of PATH, a comprehensive ‘regional scale’ numerical air quality modeling system, commenced in 1996 • PATH completed in 2001, focusing on a few episodes • PATH used extensively in assessment since 1998, e.g. the Pearl River Delta air quality study • Real-time simulation and forecasting capability since 2003

  4. Early Episodes Studied by PATH Photochemical episode 1 - 11 Oct 94 Photochemical episode 2 - 20 Aug 96

  5. R-T PATH’s Modelling Framework Met. & AQ Observations Met. Modelling (MM5) Met. Analysis (ORSM) AQ Modelling (SAQM) AQ forecast Verification & analysis Emission Modelling (EMS95) Emission Datasets

  6. Modelling Domain (1.5, 0.5km resolutions) (49X49) URBAN-SCALE DOMAIN (0.5 KM RESOLUTION) URBAN-SCALE DOMAIN (1.5 KM RESOLUTION)

  7. Time Taken for a 72-Hour Simulation(AMD, 2.4GHz, dual-cpu) 3-domains (40.5-, 13.5- & 4.5-km) • Met. Modelling ~9 hours (two-way nesting) • AQ Modelling ~18 hours (one-way nesting) (run ‘in parallel’ with the met. calculation) • Total elapsed time ~23 hours (including ~5 hours for ORSM output)

  8. Tephigram(blue lines - temperature; red lines - dew point)

  9. Jan – Dec 2004

  10. Jan – Dec 2004

  11. Results Summary • Model meteorological outputs compare very well with observations • Model reproduces the general observed AQ trends (seasonal, weekly and daily) but tend to under-estimate peak pollution values • Results suggest that refinement in emission estimates in PRD (and beyond) is needed to improve prediction of short-term averages (hourly) and high pollution episodes • Limitations in handling secondary particles – an upgrade in the chemistry / particulate model is needed

  12. Modelling ? Emissions Monitoring Air Quality Science

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