Multilevel networks and world ethnography

1. Multilevel networks and world ethnography Doug White and UC+ team SFI noon seminar 12:15 Wed, Sept 1, 2010

2. UC+=UCI_imbs+UCSD_econ+sfi, project team Scott D. White, UCI , One Spot Halbert White UCSD KarimChalak BU, Econ B. TolgaOztan, IMBS Laura Fortunato, SFI and aunt Assist from Judea Pearl RenFeng. Xi’an UCLA Xiaotung Univ. Tony Eff, MS, Econ

4. Language families

5. Folded image: Core, Semi-periphery1, SP2, Periphery1-2 Core Semi-Peri1 Semi-Peri2 Periphery1 Periphery2

6. A structurally endogamous kinship network core of a Turkish nomad clan (White and Johansen 2005: 379; 76-79).

7. Standard Cross-Cultural Sample (wikipedia page maps by Tony Eff Afro-Eurasia drawn to a slightly smaller scale

8. Causal graph, Pearl’s regression method X Y c b Z “Say for three variables you are trying to estimate the direct effect c of X on Z given an indirect effect of Y. The causal diagram model gives you a license to do it by the regression method, where, for example,   E(y|x, z) – E(y|x´, z) a c = ————————————— (1)  x – x´ Controlling for the change from x to x´, E(y|x, z) and E(y|x´, z) are the changes in variable Z due to unit changes in X controlling for Y.” (email from Pearl see Pearl 2000:151; Chalak and White 2010). Because the x,z in (y|x,z) is a joint distribution, eqn (1) means that x→x´ changes y which through the x-y-x path, considered as a joint distribution, changes z. From this it follows, given the single door criterion (Pearl 2000:150). that c + a•b = rxy.z, the coef for total effect of X on Z.

9. Two stage regression with peer effects (different notation) Stage 1 Calculate the Instruments Stage 2 use Instruments in OLS Solving Galton’s problem, Two stage OLS X1 Y X2

10. 13 linked regressions out of 2000+ SCCS variables http://eclectic.ss.uci.edu/~drwhite/courses/SCCCodes.htm Nodes are variables in regression analyses of variables from the Standard Cross-Cultural Sample of 186 societies (SCCS). Lines represent independent variables. They point down to 13 dependent variables in successive colored layers. Black lines are positive effects, red lines negative effects from regression results. Colors of nodes for variables show depth in a causal hierarchy with net effects estimated as causal graphs (Pearl 2000). At level 4 the Evil eye dependent variable has a triangular relationship with money and milked domestic animals. The regressions control for peer effects of spatial transmission (distance) and cultural transmission (language phylogeny), incorporated as Instrumental Variables in a second-stage regression, with the IVs estimated in a first-stage regression. Node sizes reflect the significance of spatial transmission peer effects. Language effects are sometimes negative.

11. v1189 Belief in evil eye

12. v238 Moral gods==4 238. HIGH GODS 18 . = Missing data 68 1 = Absent or not reported 47 2 = Present but not active in human affairs 13 3 = Present and active in human affairs but not supportive of human morality 40 4 = Present, active, and specifically supportive of human morality

13. v1189 Belief in evil eye (dichotomy) Large nodes red Small nodes orange

14. v155 True money==5 155. SCALE 7- MONEY (here, an independent variable) 77 1 = None 14 2 = Domestically usable articles 43 3 = Alien currency 27 4 = Elementary forms 25 5 = True money

15. v1189 Belief in evil eye

16. v272 Caste stratification 272. CASTE STRATIFICATION (ENDOGAMY) (two cases have secondary castes) 5 . = Missing data (154) 0 = (Omitted from map) Absent or insignificant 17 1 = Despised occupational group(s) 3 2 = Ethnic stratification 7 3 = Complex

17. v1189 Belief in evil eye

18. v245 Milked animals

20. v1189 Belief in evil eye Notes: R2 = 0.513; N=186; number of imputations=10; standard errors and R2 adjusted for two-stage least squares. “***” p-value ≤ 0.01, “**” p-value ≤0.05, “*” p-value ≤ 0.10. Language non-significant (p > .33).

21. v155 Money Notes: R2 = 0.490; N=186; number of imputations=10; standard errors and R2 adjusted for two-stage least squares. “***” p-value ≤ 0.01, “**” p-value ≤0.05, “*” p-value ≤ 0.10. Language non-significant (p > .33). Probit note: R2 = 0.481; IV(distance)=0.9911; (language)=0.9957 see last two columns for coef and pvalue.

22. v238 Moral gods Notes: R2 = 0.504; N=186; number of imputations=10; standard errors and R2 adjusted for two-stage least squares. “***” p-value ≤ 0.01, “**” p-value ≤0.05, “*” p-value ≤ 0.10. Language non-significant (p > .33). Probit note:R2 = 0.481; IV(distance)=0.9942; (language)=0.9861 see last two columns for coef and pvalue.

23. Table 4: Transmission effects (Galton’s problem): Spatial and cultural The negative peer effects for language indicate that, for each of these dependent variables, there is a tendency, strong for Money and weak for the other two variables, NOT to be the result of cultural tradition but of innovation that differentiates the societies with Money, Moral gods and Evil eye from the norms in their respective language families. This tendency is nearly significant (pvalue < 0.15) for societies with Moral gods.

24. Figure 3: Causal graph with multiple triangular regression coefficients, excluding peer effects (numbers are the regression coefficients) Table 6: Causal graph total effects and bivariate table regression slopes

26. Other kinds of cross-cultural data structures and analyses: Statistical Entailment Analyses: • Society sets for variables tend to form chains of sets ABCD • Galois duality lattice (Concept lattices): • Society sets for variables tend to form chains of sets ABCD and intersections, and opposite ordering of • Sets of variables that tend to form chains of sets • VS1VS2VS3VS4 • Intrasocietal network structure overlays on genealogy • For each society these will define new variables such as • 1) sidedness, reciprocal marriage to opposites. • 2) structurally endogamous groups • 3) marriage-type census as against random simulation • 4) distribution of structural features over generations • Multilevel analysis e.g. regional or world system effects on local societies.

28. Fig. 3: An exact world entailment digraph for the sexual division of labor Late Task A Early Task B Female Female Male Male

29. Fig. 3: An exact world ethnographic lattice of kin avoidances has a four-dimensional partial ordering of distributions: 1) parents of Hu, Wi (opp/same sex, within circles), 2) siblings and siblings-in-law of Hu and Wife (opp/same sex, in parallelograms), 3) opposite sex siblings & parents siblings & parallel cousins (White 1995). Lower types of avoidances entail upper ones features in perfect inclusion relations, found by statistical entailment analysis (White 1999b). Of the 250 societies, names attached to each node show each subset of avoidance relations.

30. 1 http://kinsource.net/kinsrc/bin/view/KinSources archives kinship network data contributed by anthropologists. Only three KS ethnographies remain for conversion from paper-based genealogies to e-networks for analysis with Pajek, but others will be added. 2,5 Binford’s (2001) Constructing Frames of Reference forager database has been spreadsheeted by Boehm and Hill. Non-foragers from the SCCS will be analyzed separately. Extensive testing of “peer effects” methods have established their validity. 3 Smith and White (1992) have postwar WS commodity flow time series in 5yr intervals; capital and migration flow will be added. 4 Murdock’s Ethnographic Atlas (EA) in Spss format has been supplemented by newly authored installments 30-31. 5 Murdock and White’s (1969) Standard Cross-Cultural Sample dataset on 186 societies in Spss and R formats has coded data contributions from 80+ different authors on 2008+ variables. Citations to SCCS are now 95+/year and growing.

31. 5 Murdock and White’s (1969) Standard Cross-Cultural Sample dataset on 186 societies in Spss and R formats has coded data contributions from 80+ different authors on 2008+ variables. Citations to SCCS are now 95+/year and growing. 6 109 missing codes for 28 SCCS variables 1006-1115 will be coded for 28 SCCS societies on the world-system impacts variables partially coded in White and Burton’s (1985-1988) NSF 8507685 funded research on “World-Systems and Ethnological Theory.” 7 To bring the SCCS societies up to date for post-1965 societies, 30 well described post-1965 ethnographic cases will be added to an (expanded) eSCCS and coded for EA variables and the CDC Cultural Diversity Codebook of 180 SCCS variables. 8 Given that the SCC Sample was published in 1969, the eSCCS additions to the sample will bring it up to date temporally. This will allow study of world-system impacts on 37 well-described ethnographic cases in the contemporary post-war period.

32. A structurally endogamous kinship network core of a Turkish nomad clan (White and Johansen 2005: 379; 76-79).

33. Similarly, Wolf (1982) drills down at several hundred ethnographically data points to analyze how commodity exchange affected indigenous societies in the 1500-1980 period of overseas conquest and modern world-systems. Interactive maps provide for drilling down from a network at one level (network spread of disease not shown here) by clicking a node to see a more detailed map or a network within that node. The upper level nodes can be societies with organizations networks reached by a click of a given node. Fig. 1.A. Gmap of Cultural Survival (2010) 100+ recent trouble spot study cases: Gmaps extend to networks at the global level, clicking into cases at the local level. Live: http://bit.ly/c1funC Fig. 1.B. This google map tracks cases of swine flu in 2009, types of cases are color coded, fatal cases have no dot, clicking a region gives a more detailed map of cases within the region.