Proposed Deemed Savings Rates for Energy Star 3.0 Plus 30% Televisions

1. Proposed Deemed Savings Rates for Energy Star 3.0 Plus 30% Televisions By Christina Steinhoff June 1, 2010

2. In May we presented a method to calculate savings for NEEA’s 2009 Energy Star Televisions Program. Prior to acceptance we needed to explain the differences in the Baseline Energy Consumption Calculation from the NWPCC. Purpose

3. Baseline • Two baselines • Baseline energy consumption • Affects the savings rate • Sixth Power Plan defines the baseline as Energy Star 3.0 specification. • Baseline market share • Affects the program’s Net Market Affects • The Sixth Power Plan defines the baseline as television sales that already meet something close to Energy Star 5.0 specification (12% of the market)

4. Review Of Proposed Methodology Example of 32-inch television sales Sept.-Dec. 2009 Meet a Min of E.S. 3.0+30% 6,571,116 kWh X 97,499 67 kWh = + Meet a Min of E.S. 4.0 1,361,326 kWh 48,356 X 28 kWh = + Total Regional Savings: 0.9 aMW Meets a min of E.S. 5.0 235,832 kWh 16 kWh X = 14,929 =Baseline Energy Consumption less Qualifying Units Energy Consumption. Data source is NPD Group data for baseline energy consumption and NEEA’s incentives dataset for qualifying unit energy consumption. Comes from QDI Strategies estimate of the sales by screen size. The estimate is based on NPD Group data adjusted to the Northwest based on program incentives and retail mix.

5. Review Of Proposed Methodology • Energy Consumption (in 7 screen-size categories) • Baseline Energy Consumption • To be more consistent with the NWPCC, we took all televisions sold in first quarter 2009 that met a minimum of E.S. 3.0 specification but less than 3.0 +15%. • N=434,206 televisions (12% of the NPD Group sales) • Qualifying Units Energy Consumption • All incentivized televisions in 2009 (Sept.-Dec.) • N=112,477 televisions with a minimum of E.S. 3.0+ 30% specification

6. Baseline Energy Consumption • Even though we attempt to use the same logic, NEEA’s calculation will not equal the Sixth Power Plan. • Baseline Period: • NEEA uses first Quarter 2009 and the 6th Plan uses December 2009. • Baseline Television Mix: • NEEA uses national sales data and the 6th Plan uses the average energy consumption of the models available on the Energy Star list. • NEEA only looks at ES 3.0 televisions, while the 6th Plan may have included a mix of models that include those more efficient than Energy Star 3.0. • Baseline Calculation: • NEEA takes the average energy use of the televisions sold. • The 6th Plan takes the max energy consumption according to the energy star specification by screen size. • Standby Savings: • NEEA does not include savings from a reduction in standby energy use and the 6th Plan does. • Days per year: • NEEA uses 365.25 and the 6th Plan uses 365. • Hours of Use: • NEEA uses 5.2 and the 6th Plan uses 5.

7. Baseline Energy Consumption Baseline Energy Consumption Compared with the NEEA’s Proposed Baseline • The difference amount to 38 kWh hours using the 6th Power Plan weights between the three buckets. Note: the weighted numbers are based on the NWPCC’s weights between the three buckets. 7

8. Baseline Energy Consumption Baseline Energy Consumption Compared with the NEEA’s Proposed Baseline with 6th Plan Unit Conversion and standby consumption • If we account for the difference in hours on per day, days in the year and standby, the results are 35 kWh apart. Note: the weighted numbers are based on the NWPCC’s weights between the three buckets. 8

9. Baseline Energy Consumption • So why are the NEEA baseline energy consumption results so much lower? • Screen Size? • The screen size only account for a small difference. The screens in the NEEA dataset are only 1 to 2 inches smaller than the Energy Star List for Sept. 2009. • Significant difference in the efficiency of the televisions. • The 6th Power Plan may have • Taken the average screen size of the models available from the Energy Star list. • Used the screen area to calculate the min efficiency to meet the ES 3.0, ES 4.0 and ES 5.0 specifications. This would result in a max watts for each specification. • Applied a compliance rate to the three specification's max watts to get the baseline energy consumption for the three screen size categories. 9

10. Proposed Savings Rate Calculation Methodology We propose accepting the NEEA baseline of E.S. 3.0 using the NPD Group dataset to compare with the 6th Power Plan. The NEEA baseline would follow the 6th Plan logic of ES 3.0 being the baseline. The NEEA baseline would be based on actual data (purchase patterns).

11. Proposed Savings Rate Calculation Methodology Note: *Energy consumption of all televisions that met a E.S. 3.0. but less than E.S. 3.0 +15%; weighted based on the screen size mix of the qualifying products. ** Average energy consumption of televisions a part of the NEEA initiative. ***Savings rates are based on NPD Group baseline energy consumption in 2009 first quarter. The qualifying unit energy consumption comes from Energy Solution’s tracking of the NEEA program. 11

12. Total Regional Savings (E.S. 3.0+ Baseline) Total: 3.2 aMW Note: *Total Regional Units come from QDI Strategies and are an estimate based on NPD Group and program data.

13. Proposed Savings Rate Calculation Methodology • Question to the Regional Technical Forum? • Is the methodology NEEA is using for the calculation of energy savings rates acceptable to compare with the 6th Power Plan?