Large Truck Crash Risk, Causation, & Prevention

1. Large Truck Crash Risk,Causation, & Prevention Ronald R. Knipling, Ph.D. Safety Consultant & Trainer Arlington, Virginia, USA rknipling@verizon.net www.safetyforthelonghaul.com IRU Academy FADEEAC International Conference Buenos Aires, Argentina -- April 5, 2011

2. Today’s Topics • Crash risk • High-risk drivers • High-risk road conditions • Proximal (immediate) crash causes • The “Crash Trifecta” • Driver & management training • Vehicle-based safety technologies • Active carrier safety management.

3. Multiple Interacting Factors & Causes

4. Crash Risk Factors • Risk Factors: • Driver: • Enduring • Temporary • Vehicle • Roadway/Environment • Proximal Causes: • Driver • Vehicle • Roadway/Environmental

5. Crash Risk Factors Driver Factors: Enduring driver traits; e.g., • Age • Personality (e.g., aggressive, impulsive) • Risk perception & attitudes • Medical conditions Temporary driver states; e.g., • Prior sleep • Circadian rhythms • Moods • Medications &drugs Other Factors: Vehicle deficiencies; e.g., • Brakes • Tires • Lighting Roadway; e.g., • Undivided roads • Dense traffic • Curves

6. Naturalistic Driving (Instrumented Vehicle) Study Near-Crash[Naturalistic Driving Video Clip]

7. Truck Naturalistic Driving Dataon At-Fault Traffic Conflicts of 95 Drivers Skewed Distribution: Many good drivers but a few bad & very bad drivers

8. High- & Low-Risk CMV Drivers Risk Odds Ratio = 4.9

9. Safety Manager Survey Results:Driver Factors Associated with Risk • Aggressive/angry • Impatient/impulsive • Inattentive • Inexperienced (new driver) • Unhappy with job/company • Young (< 25) • Sleep disorder; e.g., sleep apnea • Unhappy marriage/family • Debt/financial problems • Medical condition; e.g., heart Personality & Risk Attitudes

10. Multiple Interacting Factors & Causes

11. 10% Undivided 38% 90% 62% Odds ratio = 5.3 Exposure Traffic Conflicts Other high-risk roadway conditions include dense traffic & work zones

12. High-Risk Road Locations & Conditions • Single-vehicle crashes: • Narrow roads • Curves • Ramps • Multi-vehicle crashes: • Undivided roads • Heavy traffic • Work zones: • ~13% of serious crashes • <1% of driving exposure • Risk increase > 20X

13. Large Truck Crash Causation Study (LTCCS) Percentages for Truck At-Fault Crashes DRIVER ERROR = 88%!!!

14. Convergence of Events Causing Crashes Adapted from Reason (1990) and Short et al. (2007).

15. Misbehavior: Unsafe pre-event behavior Mistake: Transient driver inattention Unexpected traffic event. Crash “Tri-Fecta”Frequently Seen in Crashes & Near-Crashes

16. Crash Example[Naturalistic Driving Video Clip]

17. Collision Warning Systems • Forward Collision Warning(with AdaptiveCruise Control) • Side ObjectDetection(Lane Change/Merge Warnings) • Lane Departure Warning • Backing Collision Warning(Rear-Object Detection) Courtesy Iteris, Inc.

18. IVBSS Collision Warning Systems;e.g., Side Object, Forward, & Lane Departure Integrated Vehicle-Based Safety System (IVBSS) Truck Configuration

19. Large Truck Safety Technologies:Estimated Returns On Investments (ROIs)* * FMCSA Benefit-Cost Analysis of Onboard Safety Systems. Tech Brief No. FMCSA-RRT-09-023 based on ATRI research. February 2009.

20. Carrier safety manager: the most important person in truck safety! • Driver selection • Training • Evaluation • Behavioral management: • Rewards • Discipline & remediation • Vehicle technologies & maintenance • Risk avoidance; e.g., dispatching & routing.

21. Safety Management:Comprehensive and Targeted Principal Target for Improved Safety

22. KSA (Knowledge, Skill, Attitude) 3-Legged Stool: Basic Elements of Driver Behavior & Training Attitudes: Hard to change (related to personality) Often lead to worst crashes

23. Carrier Safety Manager Training & Development Safety Knowledge: • Regulatory compliance • Crash risk factors • Crash causes • Crash investigation • Vehicle maintenance • Safety technologies • Driver selection • Driver training • Driver fatigue, scheduling& dispatching • Behavioral safety management. Supervisory Skills: • Planning • Controlling • Problem solving • Monitoring performance • Training & coaching • Rewarding & disciplining • Managing time • Oral communication • Written communication • Self-development • Representing company.

24. What motivates carrier safety?Safety Culture Study Carrier Survey Results • Reduce crashes & injuries • Set high industry safety standard • Decrease insurance costs • Avoid costly lawsuits • Avoid enforcement penalties • Attract & retain drivers • Attract & retain customers. *Short, J. et al. Synthesis 14: The Role of Safety Culturein Preventing CMV Crashes. TRB Truck & Bus Synthesis Program, 2007.

25. The Business Model of Truck Safety Business Benefits of Safety: • Reduced costs • Improved productivity • Enhanced quality • Improved employee: • Relations • Morale • Retention • Off-the-job safety awareness • Better organizational image • Organizational pride.

26. Freight Revenue Needed toCompensate for Crash Loss

27. Compliance with Regulations PLUSActive “Beyond Compliance” Carrier Management

28. Safety for the Long Haul Large Truck Crash Risk, Causation, & Prevention • Publisher: ATA • 13 chapters encompassing: • Basic crash concepts • Risk • Causation • Countermeasures • Safety management • National policy. • Target audiences: • Carrier safety managers • Government & industry officials • Students • Availability:www.atabusinesssolutions.com/

29. Thanks for your attention!Ron Knipling(703) 533-2895 rknipling@verizon.netwww.safetyforthelonghaul.com Website information & downloads: • Book overview & detailed outline • Training seminar information • Crash & risk analysis guide • Publications: • Safety management reports • Safety research • Articles on truck safety • Presentations.