Shifting From Water Scarcity to Surplus in Pakistan

1. Shifting From Water Scarcity to Surplus in Pakistan LEAD Islamabad, Pakistan July 11, 2018 Afreen Siddiqi, Ph.D. Associate Director, MIT Strategic Engineering Research Group Research Scientist, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Visiting Scholar, Harvard Kennedy School

2. From Scarcity to Surplus: A Vision for Water Security • How is scarcity defined? • Is per capita water availability a sufficient measure and predictor for human well-being and economic growth? • Role of technology in managing and addressing scarcity • can we buy out water scarcity through technology? • Policy and governance for shifting the water balance • what are some policies needed for addressing water scarcity? • how has governance impacted scarcity?

3. Water Scarcity: Some Definitions

4. Definitions of water stress, scarcity, and absolute scarcity • Water Stress: annual water supplies less than 1700 m3/person • Water Scarcity: annual water supplies less than 1000 m3/person • Absolute Scarcity: annual water supplies less than 500 m3/person http://www.unwater.org/water-facts/scarcity/#

5. Water availability is typically defined as total renewable resources per inhabitant Total Annual Renewable Water Resources in Pakistan: 246.8 billion m3 /year Pakistan’s population has almost doubled between 1991 and 2017 (in 27 years)

6. Water availability per person is declining due to increasing population and fixed renewable water resources Total Annual Renewable Water Resources: 246.8 billion m3 /year water scarcity

7. Several economically developed and developing countries have modest levels of per capita water resources Source: http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/water_res/index.stm#ab

8. A lesson from history: long-term forecasts for US withdrawals Forecasts of US Withdrawals 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Cubic kilometers per year Actual US Withdrawals 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Source: Desalination: A National Perspective, WSTB, NAE, 2008

9. Total withdrawals US GNP Source: Desalination: A National Perspective, WSTB, NAE, 2008

10. From Scarcity to Surplus: A Vision for Water Security • How is scarcity defined? • Is per capita water availability a sufficient measure and predictor for economic growth? • Role of technology in managing and addressing scarcity • can we buy out water scarcity through technology? • Policy and governance for shifting the water balance • what are some policies needed for addressing water scarcity? • how has governance impacted scarcity?

11. Thomas R. Malthus • Thomas R. Malthus, a British economist, wrote essays on population dynamics in 1798 and theorized on dynamics of population growth • His predictions of max population levels have been proven wrong: • “Population when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio. Subsistence increases only in an arithmetical ratio…” (in Feedback Thought in Social Sciences and Systems Theory, George Richardson, 1991) • Malthusian predictions have so far not been realized largely due to technological innovation

12. Growth of world population and key technological developments Source: Fogel, Robert, 1999. “Catching Up with the Economy”, American Economic Review 89(1) March 1-21

13. Technology interventions for quantity and quality

14. Irrigation canals in Punjab built over a century expanded cultivation area and production Link canals were added after the1960 Indus Waters Treaty

15. Extrapolating historical trends of total irrigation requirement show an unsustainable trajectory for the future in Pakistan Total irrigation requirement Surface water supply at field level Groundwater requirement Source: Kirby et al. “Agricultural production, water use and food availability in Pakistan:Historical trends, and projections to 2050”, Agricultural Water Management (2017), 179: 34-46

16. Water quality significantly impacts yield and production Salinity impacts on yield are known, however, inadequately addressed Source: Kirby et al. “Agricultural production, water use and food availability in Pakistan:Historical trends, and projections to 2050”, Agricultural Water Management (2017), 179: 34-46

17. New research shows contamination of ground water with implications for human health and agriculture • New understanding of additional contaminants, such as Arsenic, points to serious knowledge gaps and opens possibility of new solutions • Recent studies in Bangladesh determined 7.4% - 26% annual harvest yield loss due to soil arsenic (from ground water irrigation)* • Recent studies of groundwater quality in Pakistan has shown significant Arsenic presence *Huhmann et al. “Field study of rice yield diminished by soil Arsenic in Bangladesh”, Environmental Science & Technology, 2017, 51(20): 11553-11560

19. Arsenic exceeds the WHO guideline of 10 mg/liter in large parts of the Indus plain Source: Podgorski et al, Science Advances (2017), 3, August 23, 2017

20. Emerging technologies for water treatment should be evaluated and adopted for various uses where feasible • Brackish groundwater is easier to desalinate • lower energy requirement • higher recovery rate (up to 90%) • Reverse Osmosis • membrane based water purification technology that has matured and been adopted globally • costs for operation have been reduced • Electrodialysis • using electric potential to separate salt ions • has been used for brackish water treatment at large scales Treated water for drinking water use and in limited cases for agricultural production should be considered – cost-benefit analysis is needed where costs should be compared with expected gains

21. Water supply should be conceptualized holistically and systematically • Water supply in a sector can be increased through : • Inter-sectoral transfer • Cross-sectoral reuse • Intra-sectoral efficiency gains • New supply Industry Agriculture Municipal Inter-sectoral freshwater re-allocation (transfer) Cross-sectoral wastewater reuse Intra-sectoral freshwater increase (efficiency) New freshwater supply

22. Future water access options are a combination of new supply, demand management and inter-sectoral transfers New Groundwater Access Jordan Case Study Industry Wastewater re-use from municipal to industry leakage reduction Wastewater re-use from municipal to agriculture Agriculture Municipal high-efficiency irrigation Desalination fresh water transfer from agriculture to municipal sector

23. Water supply plans, with a portfolio of technology options, across scales can be optimally determined Industry Best options for water supply at city, provincial, and national-scale in Pakistan should be determined with systems analysis to identify optimal strategies and technology portfolios Freshwater transfers from agriculture to cities should be seriously considered for large metropolitan areas along with municipal waste water treatment and reuse for agriculture Agriculture Municipal

24. From Scarcity to Surplus: A Vision for Water Security • How is scarcity defined? • Is per capita water availability a critical measure and essential for economic growth? • Role of technology in managing and addressing scarcity • can we buy out water scarcity through technology? • Policy and governance for shifting the water balance • what are some policies needed for addressing water scarcity? • how has governance impacted scarcity?

25. National Policies: Trade of Agricultural Commodities

26. Global Agricultural Trade Relationships: Pakistan is one of the major producers of global commodities based on irrigated water The structure of global embodied irrigation water consumption for 16 major food crops, highlighting how embodied irrigation water often flows from more water-rich to more water-limited countries. These countries represent approximately 80% of all irrigation water consumption for the production of 84 exported food commodities MacDonald, et al. “Rethinking Agricultural Trade Relationships In an Era of Globalization”, BioScience, (2015), Vol 65, No. 3.

27. Lack of groundwater management in Pakistan has led to unsustainable practices providing short-term gain but putting the future in peril Higher resources endowments may facilitate exports despite lower efficiencies. Trade occurs despite relative disadvantages due to inadequate pricing. MacDonald, et al. “Rethinking Agricultural Trade Relationships In an Era of Globalization”, BioScience, (2015), Vol 65, No. 3.

28. Pakistan has been identified as one of the leverage points for global food security West, et al. “Leverage points for improving global food security and the environment”, (2015), Science, Vol. 345, pp 325-328

29. Leverage local potential with strategic policies

30. Agricultural sector is stagnating: increased inputs of nutrients and energy have led to modest output gains At the provincial level in Punjab (between 1995-2010): • Direct energy intensity has risen 80% (from 1 to 1.8 MJ per kg of crop produced) • Fertilizer use intensity has risen 85% from 99 kg/ha to 184 kg/ha • Total crop production has increased only 31% (largely dominated by increase in sugarcane production) • ‘Cash crops’ of cotton and sugar-cane show yield increases, as do food crops of wheat, rice and maize – however other crops have declining or stagnant yield levels • At district level there is large variability in access to irrigation water, pumping energy costs, and agricultural productivity “Due to declining performance of the sector, as well as increased cost of inputs and inflation, the cost of food per head in the province has gone beyond Rs.3000 [$30] per month” (‘Stagnation in Punjab Agriculture’ - DAWN, March 25, 2013)

31. Provincial scale shows increasing median rice yield - there is continued large variability at district scale in Punjab

32. Provincial level wheat yield has risen – but some districts perform better than others with a 3 fold difference kg/hectare 1317 - 2020 2021 – 2651 2651 - 2930 2930 – 3235 3235 - 3782 Provincial-level yield ~2700 kg/ha (in 2009)

33. The Indus delta has has lost 25% of land since 1944 due to sediment impoundment behind upstream reservoirs and diversions

34. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has majority of the forest lands Source: http://www.alltravels.com/pakistan/north-west-frontier/aloch/photos/current-photo-85544609

35. Baluchistan is rich in mineral resources Source: http://www.lashchannel.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/baloch-culture-images4.jpg

36. Punjab is the largest agricultural province Image by James Wescoat

37. Sindh hosts the Indus Delta Source: http://www.eoearth.org/view/article/173762/

38. KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA Punjab PUNJAB BALUCHISTAN SINDH

39. From Scarcity to Surplus: A Vision for Provincial Water Security • Provinces should consider best use of water given their specific environment: • Sindh should seriously consider opportunities for revival of delta and income generation • KPK should consider eco-tourism parks • Baluchistan should examine additional small storage, and impacts of mining on water resources • Punjab can boost production by cleaning up surface water, treating ground water before usage, and enacting efficiency and total abstraction policies

40. Policies for Inclusive Development

41. Siddiqi, A., and Collins, R., (2017) “Sociotechnical systems and sustainability: current and future perspectives for inclusive development”, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 24:7-13

42. Sample Data: Thal Canal Kharif 2007-2017

43. Ratio of estimated delivery to total entitlement shows varying levels of deviation for canals Wescoat, J.L., Siddiqi, A., and Muhammad, A., “Socio-Hydrology of Channel Flow in Complex River Basins: Rivers, Canals, and Distributary Chanels in Punjab, Pakistan”, (in Review, Water Resources Research)

44. Equity is defined as the spatial uniformity of the ratio of delivered water to scheduled (entitled) water The minimum values are getting smaller over the years Inter-quartile range has increased Results reveal need for new process for setting seasonal allocations (a socio-technical process) as well as for higher frequency monitoring to enhance equity Wescoat, J.L., Siddiqi, A., and Muhammad, A., “Socio-Hydrology of Channel Flow in Complex River Basins: Rivers, Canals, and Distributary Chanels in Punjab, Pakistan”, Water Resources Research, 2018, 54(1): 464-479

45. From Scarcity to Surplus: A Vision for Water Security • How is scarcity defined? • Is per capita water availability a critical measure and essential for economic growth? • Role of technology in managing and addressing scarcity • can we buy out water scarcity through technology? • Policy and governance for shifting the water balance • what are some policies needed for addressing water scarcity? • how has governance impacted scarcity?

46. Closing Remarks and Way Forward

47. Structural economic shifts may change water demand

48. Structural economic shifts will come through investments in education and training for new livelihoods

49. Summary • Currently, the Indus river system in Pakistan is over-abused and under-utilized. • It is choked with pollution and strained with over-abstraction all the while its economic potential is not fully harnessed. • Historically, the Indus has been viewed as a lifeline for the largely arid country. • It can be a ladder to a future of inclusive socio-economic prosperity. • The policies, technologies and action needed for shifting from a presence of scarcity to a future of surplus can be realized • what is needed is public awareness and demand, and political will and sustained support

50. THANK YOU!