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Archiving energy technology optimisation models

This symposium explores the impact of the energy transition on archival policies and the archiving of energy technology optimization models. It examines issues such as the availability of model reports, digital archives, and discarding policies of libraries. The symposium also includes a discussion on the archival challenges faced by professionals in the energy sector.

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Archiving energy technology optimisation models

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  1. Archiving energy technology optimisation models Transitions in Energy History: State of the Art and New Perspectives, Symposium, Milano, 29 November – 1 December 2017 Museo Nazionale della Scienza e della Tecnologia "Leonardo da Vinci" Poul Erik Grohnheit, Senior Researcher Emeritus DTU Management Engineering, Systems Analysis / Teknologihistorie DTU Technical University of Denmark DK-2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark

  2. Overview From abstract Optimisation models for energy technologies have been used for about 40 years for scenario studies of future energy transition over a period of 20-100 years, covering the range of geographical areas, from cities and countries to global studies divided into a few regions. Studies using these models have always focused on producing scenario results for publication, while documentation and archiving have played a minor role. Examples of model archives will be reported mainly from the following sources: • Danish Energy Plan 1981 and follow-upreports. • European Commission Energy Flow Optimisation Model (EFOM). • IEA ETSAP (MARKAL and TIMES models) for national, regional and global studies. • European Fusion Development Agreement (EFDA) TIMES model • Energy Technology Data Handbook. Vol. I-II, Kernforschungsanlage Jülich, 1980. • Technology catalogues from Denmark, 1981-2015. Transitions in Energy History

  3. Introduction From call for abstracts: The symposium will deal in particular with the archival issue. In which way does the actual energy transition perspective impact archives and archival policies in the firms in the energy sector in particular? Professionals involved are encouraged to participate in a reflection crucial to the future of historical studies on the energy transitions. Issues to be considered Archiving model software, assumptions and results Availability of model reports Digital archives Too little or too much in archives Discarding policies of libraries Institutional archives and my personal archive Transitions in Energy History

  4. Poul Erik Grohnheit Risø negatives archive: D110_41_doc.jpg(Herning Exhibition, Sep. 1980) 1971: Master in Economics, University of Copenhagen 1969-80: Town planning and MunicipalEconomics 1980: Risø National Laboratory, Energy Systems Analysis 1980-86: Danish Energy Plan 1981 and follow-upactivities 1981-84: Economicassessment of coal and nuclear power 1983-84: OECD-NEA, The Economics of the nuclearfuelcycle 1985-86: EFDA: Economic prospects of nuclear fusion. 1987-now: Optimisation models for energy systems (EFOM, Balmorel, TIMES) 1988-2011: Electricity markets in Northern Europe 2004-now: European Fusion Development Agreement /EUROfusion, Socio-economic studies 2012-now: DTU Management Engineering, Systems Analysis: home pages 2015-now DTU Management Engineering, Energy Systems Analysis Group: Emeritus 2016-now: Teknologihistorie DTU. Risø photo archive Transitions in Energy History

  5. Danish energy policy - availability of reports and data Scanned main reports available for download from Danish Energy Agency about 2008. Scanned for own archive 2014-17. Selected background material scanned 2014-2015. To digital archive DTU DOC Introduction Danish Energy Plan 1981 European Commission Energy Flow Optimisation Model (EFOM) IEA ETSAP (MARKAL and TIMES models) European Fusion Development Agreement (EFDA) Energy Technology Data Handbook, 1980 Technology catalogues from Denmark Summary and conclusions Transitions in Energy History

  6. Asnæsværket, Kalundborg, Denmark, 1981 Second power plant owned by Copenhagen suburbs. 1959. 100 km from Copenhagen Heat supply to a nearby small town from 1980s Unit 5 planned before 1973 for residual fuel oil After the oil shock changed to coal, commissioned 1981 Orimulsion 1995-2002, 7000 full load hours 1997. Older units decommissioned or mothballed. Later: Marginal units mainly running in 'dry' years in Norway. New biomass boiler. Transitions in Energy History

  7. Danish Energy Plan 1981 and follow up Computer technology for the Energy Plan 1981 – used for the DES model. Electricity generation and import 1975-2003, Energy Statistics. Danish Energy Agency, and own calculations. Heating technologies 1981 and 2000. Model result for 2000 compared to statistics Transitions in Energy History

  8. Selected publications on Danish energy planning Grohnheit, Poul Erik; Olsen, Ole Jess (2001) Organisation and Regulation of the Electricity Supply Industry in Denmark. In: The Electricity Industry in Transition: Organisation, Regulation and Ownership in EU Member states, FrancoAngeli, Milano Grohnheit, P.E., Denmark: Long-term planning with different objectives. In: Climate change and power. Economic instruments for European electricity. Vrolijk, C. (ed.), (Earthscan Publications Ltd., London, 2002) p. 108-130 Grohnheit, Poul Erik (1986), The DES Model and Its Applications, Risø-R-519, Risø National Laboratory. Det lange perspektiver i energiplanlægningen. Energiplan 81, Bilag 2 Danmarks Energifortider - hovedbegivenheder på energiområdet. Energistyrelsen, 2006 Transitions in Energy History

  9. Risø National Laboratory. Tape archive, 1982 Source: Risø Annual Report 1982. Introduction Danish Energy Plan 1981 European Commission Energy Flow Optimisation Model (EFOM) IEA ETSAP (MARKAL and TIMES models) European Fusion Development Agreement (EFDA) Energy Technology Data Handbook, 1980 Technology catalogues from Denmark Summary and conclusions Transitions in Energy History

  10. European Commission Energy Flow Optimisation Model (EFOM) • EU Framework Programmes 1980s and 1990s • EFOM model programs • DAMOCLES - database • ORESTE – scenario generator • LINPROG or other linear programming optimiser • ORACLE – presentation of results • Software: • FORTRAN program for Digital VAX (mainframe used by Risø and others about 1990) • PC Compilers: Lahey'sFORTRAN Language Systems F77L and F77L-EM/32 , Salford's FTN77/386 • Model languages: OMNI, MINOS, GAMS • Main studies • SO2 and NOx emissions reduction • Cost-Effectiveness of CO2 reduction options.(European Commission - research project JOUM-0007-C(SMA), DG-XII/E/5. • EURIO - Support for Energy-Environment RTD Strategies. Annex 3. Tutorials for Energy Supply Modelling (European Commission - DG XII research project JOU-CT93-0274) Transitions in Energy History

  11. Flow optimisation models – linear programming Intermediate commodity Raw material Demand Export Pollutant Variables: Flows Capacity investments Objective function - options: Min. total system costs Max. contribution margin/utility Constraints: Demands Commodity balances Flow-capacity Non-negative variables Multi-period options Myopic - period by period Full foresight - Discounted objective function Import Down-stream process Up-stream process Basic parameters: Initial capacities Efficiencies Prices Optional parameters: Price elasticities Emission factors Discount rate Model systems: Excel solver EFOM MESSAGE MARKAL/TIMES Balmorel Transitions in Energy History

  12. EFOM technology database - DAMOCLES Multi-fuel central electricity generation and abatement technologies. Punch card formats. Transitions in Energy History

  13. Danish TokamakDANTE at Risø, 1983. Source: DTU: Risø photo archive. JET Joint European Torus, planned for commissioning in 1983. Risø Energy Exibition, Herning, Denmark, 1980. Introduction Danish Energy Plan 1981 European Commission Energy Flow Optimisation Model (EFOM) IEA ETSAP (MARKAL and TIMES models) European Fusion Development Agreement (EFDA) Energy Technology Data Handbook, 1980 Technology catalogues from Denmark Summary and conclusions Transitions in Energy History

  14. Genesis of EFDA-TIMES and TIAM MARKAL/TIMES Global models Initial proposal by Amit Kanudia & Richard Loulou to ETSAP at ETSAP meeting in 1998 SAGE at USDOE-EIA: 2000-2003 and on: Global, myopic MARKAL IEA-ETP project: 2001-2003 and on: global MARKAL with focus on technology, environmental issues EFDA: 2004 and on: First global TIMES model: focus on technology, environment, very long term (2100) ETSAP’s TIAM: 2004-2006: elaborated from previous modeling experience. Focus on technology, energy trade, link with macroeconomy (GEM-E3), global environmental issues (GHG, climate module), very long term (2100) From presentation by Richard Loulou, ETSAP workshop, Stuttgart, November 2006 Transitions in Energy History

  15. Socio-Economic Research on Fusion • 1986: Environmental impact and economic prospects of nuclear fusion • 1988: STOA (Science and Technology Options Assessment) – European Parliament • 1997: ECN MARKAL Western Europe • 1997-2002: SERF 1-3 • Direct Costs of Fusion Power production • External Costs of Fusion Power Production - ExternE • Cost-effective European Energy Scenarios • Social Acceptability of Fusion • 2004- EFDA-TIMES – global model, time horizon 2100. Main versions: • 2005/2009/2011 – 15 regions, base year 2000 • 2012/2015 – 17 regions, base year2005 • 2010 ETSAP semi-annual meeting Cork – Comparison of TIAM and EFDA-TIMES • 2012 Fukushima – impact for acceptability of fusion • 2013 EFDA-TIMES and ETSAP-TIAM workshop • 2014-2018 Reduced resources • 2016 EFDA-TIMES Story lines, Article in Energy Strategy Review Transitions in Energy History

  16. EFDA-TIMES: Long-term optimisation focusing on fusion Model characteristics • Global energy model in 15 regions – latest version 17 regions. • Network on energy demand and supply. • Time horizon 2100. • Results focusing on technologies for electricity generation.Fusion: Starts 2050, small share to 2070. Significant contribution by 2100 - Will replace mainly large capital-intensive technologies, in particular fission. Main characteristics of fusion: • Unit size 1.5 GW. Similar to fission units or 2-3 large coal units, i.e. Very large base-load units • Steam parameters 600-800 ºC. Similar to advanced coal or combined cycle gas turbines. Suitable for large-scale combined heat and power (CHP) for urban district heating. Suitable for catalytic hydrogen generation • Available from 2050 onwards Transitions in Energy History

  17. Energy Technology Data Handbook. Vol. I-II, Kernforschungsanlage Jülich, 1980. Microfiche: User's Guide for MARKAL Technology catalogues 1988, 1990 and 1995 Introduction Danish Energy Plan 1981 European Commission Energy Flow Optimisation Model (EFOM) IEA ETSAP (MARKAL and TIMES models) European Fusion Development Agreement (EFDA) Energy Technology Data Handbook, 1980 Technology catalogues from Denmark Summary and conclusions Transitions in Energy History

  18. Exchange rates and inflationEconomic data for technologies may be from different sources. For comparison, they must be converted to a common currency, usually US $ in the same year. In this table US$ 1975 is set at 100.0 Transitions in Energy History

  19. Projected Costs of Generating Electricity, 1986, 1989, 1992, 1998 and 2005 Updates, OECD-NEA/IEAP. E. Grohnheit, Risø National Laboratory, Denmark, 2006 Transitions in Energy History

  20. Risø Centralfoto – negatives archive • Period 1957-1990 • 30000-50000 negatives • Main entries • Department • Month • Employee • About 1000 negatives scanned manually with variable quality Introduction Danish Energy Plan 1981 European Commission Energy Flow Optimisation Model (EFOM) IEA ETSAP (MARKAL and TIMES models) European Fusion Development Agreement (EFDA) Energy Technology Data Handbook, 1980 Technology catalogues from Denmark Summary and conclusions Transitions in Energy History

  21. Nuclear research centres Risø National Laboratory, Denmark • 1955-1976 Atomenergikommissionen (AEK) • 1976-1986 Risø National Laboratory (Forsøgsanlæg Risø) • 1986-2006 Risø National Laboratory (Forskningscenter Risø) • 2007-2011 Risø DTU - Risø National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy • 2012 Integrated into DTU departments Common development • Atoms for Peace, President Eisenhower 1953 • Nuclear Energy Research • Non-Nuclear Energy • Environment and Sustainable Development • Energy and Environment Modelling Nuclear research centres in Europe and USA • EU Joint Research Centres (Ispra, Petten, etc.) • IFE, Halden, Kjeller, Norway • Studsvik, Sweden • Kernforschungsanlage / Forschungszentrum Jülich, etc. Germany • UKAEA, Harwell, Culham, etc. UK • CEA Saclay, Cadarache, Grenoble, etc., France • ECN, Petten, Netherlands • SCK-CEN, VITO, Mol, Belgium • ENEA. Italy • CIEMAT, Spain • Paul Scherrer Institut, Switzerland • Brookhaven, Argonne, OakRidge, Lawrence Berkeley, etc., USA 21 Transitions in Energy History

  22. Archiving models: Further research Own archive – own harddisk, copies on DTU server (up to 5 years), DTU-DOC Other individual archives DTU Library – old material continuous discarded Teknologihistorie DTU – Catalogue in PastPerfect Rigsarkivet (Danish National Archives) – Other public archives Internet Archive Waybackmashine: 308 billion web pages saved over time IEA ETSAP – member institutions, e.g. DTU Sharepoint, individuals EFDA/EUROfusion – ftp-server, Garching until 2014, IDM, OwnCloud for modelling team European Commission, Cordis, Eurostat Energy Modelling Platform for Europe (new EU Horizon2020 project and website Message for PhD students archiving models: Archive and document versions of model assumptions and results, which has been trans from one person to another. Transitions in Energy History

  23. Selected publications on optimisation models Manthey, Ch. (Ed.) (1980) Energy Technology Data Handbook. Vol. I. Conversion Technologies, KernforschungsanlageJülich, 1980. Manthey, Ch.: Tosasto G.C. (Eds.) (1980) Energy Technology Data Handbook. Vol. II. End Use Technologies, KernforschungsanlageJülich, 1980 Fishbone, Leslie G.; Giesen, Günter; Goldstein, Gary; Hymmen, Hans Albrecht; Stocks, Kenneth J.; Vos, Heinz; Wilde, Dieter; Zölcher, Rolf, Balzer, Chip; Abillock, Harold, (1983) User's Guide for MARKAL (BNL/KFA Version 2.0). A Multi-Period, Linear-Programming Model for Energy Systems Analysis, IEA Energy Technology Systems Analysis Project, Brookhaven National Laboratory/KernforschungsanlageJülich, BNL-51701 Grohnheit, P. E. (1995), Application and limitations of annual models for electricity capacity development, In: Energy Models for Policy and Planning. London Business School/IFORS. London, July 18-20, 1995. Chapter 7 in Derek Bunn & Erik Larsen (Eds.) "Systems Modelling for Energy Policy Editors. John Wiley and Sons. 1997, p. 89-116. EIA DOE, NEMS - The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview. EIA DOE, various years (2003, 2006, 2007). ORDECSYS; KanORS; HALOA; KUL (2004), EFDA World TIMES Model. Final Report. Prepared for EFDA, 65p+Annexes 1-5, Cabal, Helena et al., Fusion power in a future low carbon global electricity system, Energy Strategy Reviews, 2017 Transitions in Energy History

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