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Should we place a limit on the global CO 2 emissions to ensure sustainable development?

Discussion Point 5:. Should we place a limit on the global CO 2 emissions to ensure sustainable development?. Global CO 2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels & the manufacture of cement (in 10 9 kg CO 2 ). Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/glo.html.

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Should we place a limit on the global CO 2 emissions to ensure sustainable development?

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  1. Discussion Point 5: Should we place a limit on the global CO2 emissions to ensure sustainable development?

  2. Global CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels & the manufacture of cement (in 109 kg CO2) Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/glo.html

  3. Global CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels & the manufacture of cement (in 109 kg CO2) Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/glo.html

  4. Global Carbon Cycle Fossil-fuel burning 5.3 Numbers are billions of tons of carbon Land use 0.6 – 2.6 Photosynthesis 100-120 Plant respiration 40 - 50 Decay of residues 50 - 60 Sea-surface gas exchange 100 - 115 Net ocean uptake 1.6 – 2.4 Geological reservoir

  5. Atmospheric Carbon dioxide Concentrations CO2 concentration in the atmosphere (in ppmv) 385.3 ppmv in 2008 275 ppmv in pre-industrial time Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/

  6. Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) including Carbon dioxide GHGs are gases in an atmosphere that absorb and emit radiation within the thermal infrared range. This process is the fundamental cause of the greenhouse effect.

  7. The Greenhouse effect A T M O S P H E R E S U N G R E E N H O U S E G A S E S

  8. The main GHGs in the Earth's atmosphere are water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and ozone. Without GHGs, Earth's surface would be on average about 33°C colder than at present.

  9. Rise in the concentration of four GHGs

  10. Global Warming Potential (GWP) of different GHGs

  11. Global Warming The burning of fossil fuels, land use change and other industrial activities since the industrial revolution have increased the GHGs in the atmosphere to such a level that the earth’s surface is heating up to temperatures that are very destructive to life on earth.

  12. Global temperature anomalies from land meteorological stations (in deg C) 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 Base period Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/temp/hansen/hansen.html

  13. Global temperature anomalies from land and ocean observations (in deg C) 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 Base period Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/temp/hansen/hansen.html

  14. Hemispheric annual temperature anomalies from land and ocean observations 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 Base period Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/temp/hansen/hansen.html

  15. The global temperature has risen by 0.74 ± 0.18°C over the last century (from 1906 to 2005). Source: Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Compare the above with the fact that the global temperature has not varied by more than 1 or 2oC during the past 100 centuries. Global warming has begun, and so has the Climate Change.

  16. Consequences…………

  17. Consequences………… World’s first environmental refugees from Carteret Islands, Papua New Guinea. • Persistent flooding is causing the submergence of the Carteret Islands. • Saltwater intrusion is contaminating the islands freshwater supply and preventing the growth of crops. • The islands were declared uninhabitable by the government in 2005 and expected to be completely submerged by 2015. Source: http://earthtrends.wri.org/

  18. Consequences………… • death of coral reefs • fewer cubs for polar bears • spread of dengue and other diseases • heavy rains & severe draughts • fires, floods, storms, & hurricanes • changed rainfall patterns • warming and aridity • loss of biodiversity

  19. Rate of increase of CO2 concentration (in ppmv/year) 1.8 ppmv/year in 2008 Source: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/trends/co2/siple2.013 and http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/co2/sio-mlo.html

  20. CO2 concentration in the future (ppmv) global temperature may be up by 2oC

  21. At the rate of 1.5 ppmv of CO2 increase per year, 400 ppmv CO2 will be reached in 2018, and it is probable that the global temperature would go up by 2oC (compare it with the 0.01oC per decade estimate by WWF). -Accelerated Climate Change -Mass extinctions -Ecosystems breakdowns -Large scale discontinuities

  22. Some say, forget about the 2oC. The limit is not 400 ppmv CO2. It is550 ppmv CO2(which is nearly twice the pre-industrial value), which we may reach not.

  23. CO2 concentration in the future (ppmv) We are lucky. Are we?

  24. Sustainable Limit Calculations

  25. Calculation of Global Sustainable Limiting Rate of Carbon Dioxide Production: 1. Virgin material supply limit: To stabilize the atmospheric CO2 concentration below approximately 550 ppmv by the year 2100, global anthropogenic emissions must be limited to about 7 to 8 x 1012 kg (= 7 to 8 giga tonnes) of C per year (IPCC, 1996). Source: Graedel, T.E. and Klee, R.J., 2002. Getting serious about sustainability, Env. Sci. & Tech. 36(4): 523-9

  26. Calculation of Global Sustainable Limiting Rate of Carbon Dioxide Production: • 2. Allocation of virgin material: • Each of the average 7.5 billion people on the planet over the next 50 years is allocated an equal share of carbon emissions. • That is roughly 1 tonne (1000 kg) of C equivalents per person per year, • which is roughly 3.8 tonne of CO2 equivalents per person per year. Source: Graedel, T.E. and Klee, R.J., 2002. Getting serious about sustainability, Env. Sci. & Tech. 36(4): 523-9

  27. USA Sustainable limit Sri Lanka Sources: http://hdrstats.undp.org/buildtables/rc_report.cfm

  28. USA Norway Singapore Sustainable limit Sri Lanka Iceland Japan Sources: http://hdrstats.undp.org/buildtables/rc_report.cfm

  29. LI EI GDPI + + HDI = 3 3 3 Life Expectancy - 25 LI (Life Index) = 85 - 25 2 Adult Literacy 1 School Enrollment EI (Education Index) = + 3 100 3 100 ln(GDP per capita) - ln(100) GDPI (GDP Index) = ln(40000) - ln(100) UNDP defined Human Development Index (HDI)

  30. HDI > 0.8 Unsustainable amount of per capita CO2 emissions are required to reach super high HDI (> 0.9) USA Sustainable limit Sri Lanka Sources: http://hdrstats.undp.org/buildtables/rc_report.cfm

  31. Discussion Point 6: How to limit the CO2 emissions below the sustainable limit? Take 10 mins.

  32. Emissions Reduction Option 1: Increase the use of carbon sinks (such as forests where 70% of all photosynthesis occurs). But, we replace our forests with cities, highways & golf courses. Stop destroying forests, and grow more trees.

  33. The forest cover is already too small to help reducing global warming. How long does it take to grow a tree like this?

  34. Emissions ReductionOption 2: Change to non-CO2 emitting energy sources What are they? Nuclear Hydro Renewables (Geothermal, Solar, Wave, Tidal, Wind, Biomass and Biogas) Muscle Power

  35. Energy from sustainably managed renewable sources Ulf Bossel – October 2005

  36. World Energy Consumption by Fuel (in 1015 BTU) http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table18.xls

  37. World Energy Consumption by Fuel (in %) http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table18.xls

  38. World Energy Consumption by Fuel (in %) http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table18.xls

  39. World Energy Consumption by Fuel (in %) http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/table18.xls

  40. There is no immediate financial benefits for a switch to renewable energy in the profit-oriented energy markets.

  41. Emissions Reduction Option 3: Reduce Population More people More pollution

  42. Electricity use in 2006 If you are in USA, you will be lighting 18.5 bulbs, each with 200 W power If you are in China, you will be lighting 3 bulbs, each with 200 W power

  43. in 2005

  44. in 2005

  45. CO2 emissions per capita has stronger links with GDP per capita than with population.

  46. Emissions Reduction Option 4: Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS) Controversial since permanent storage of CO2 underground is not guaranteed

  47. Controversial since the impacts on marine ecosystem (very fragile) are not known

  48. Discussion Point 7: What could you do to limit the CO2 emissions below the sustainable limit as an engineer? Take 10 mins.

  49. Food for thought: • What are the Engineering Challenges to sustainability? • 􀂃 Global climate change • 􀂃 Energy production and use • 􀂃 Food production • 􀂃 Resources depletion • 􀂃 Toxics in the environment • 􀂃 Making sustainable lifestyles attractive Base for your CP551 project

  50. The supreme Greek God Zeus told Prometheus: “You may give men such gifts as are suitable, but you must not give them fire for that belongs to the Immortals.” – Roger Lancelyn Green Tales of the Greek Heroes Puffin Classics

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