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The Global Outlook for the Supply and Demand for Grains. Presented at 12 th Annual South African Agricultural Outlook Conference Pretoria, South Africa September 4, 2012 by Jerry Norton Chairman Grains Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees World Agricultural Outlook Board
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The Global Outlook for the Supply and Demand for Grains Presented at 12th Annual South African Agricultural Outlook Conference Pretoria, South Africa September 4, 2012 by Jerry Norton Chairman Grains Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees World Agricultural Outlook Board U.S. Department of Agriculture
USDA’s Monthly WASDE Report 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference
U.S. Wheat and Feed Grains Balance Sheets 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference
Global Wheat Balance Sheet 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference
Global Coarse Grains Balance Sheet 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference
Global Grain Situation & Outlook 2012/13 • U.S. corn supply and demand • Global corn supply and demand • U.S. wheat supply and demand • Global wheat supply and demand • Global grain demand and U.S. ethanol 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference
Corn Situation & Outlook 2012/13 • U.S. corn supply and demand outlook • Early planting and large acreage • Devastating June and July drought and heat • Sharply lower yields and production • Tight supplies, record prices, and reduced usage • Global corn supply and demand outlook • World corn exports • Rising foreign corn consumption • Rising foreign area and yields • World production falling below consumption 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference
U.S. Corn Belt Planting Progress Note: Central Corn Belt 5-state region including Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, and Ohio. Source: USDA-NASS, Crop Progress, 2012. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference
U.S. Corn Planted Area Source: USDA-NASS, Crop Production, August 10, 2012. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference
Early June U.S. Corn Production Outlook Source: Based on projections from the June 12, 2012, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference
U.S. Corn Production 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference
Developing Drought in June and July May 29, 2012 June 26, 2012 August 7, 2012 July 17, 2012 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference
U.S. Drought Monitor 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference
Number of Days => 100 degrees F,Jun. 1 – Aug. 4, 2012 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference
U.S. Corn Areas Experiencing Drought 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference
U.S. Corn Yields Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, June 12, July 11, and August 10, 2012. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference
Early AugustU.S. Corn Production Outlook Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, August 10, 2012. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference
U.S. Corn Ending Stocks and Stocks-to-Use Source: Projections for 2011/12 and 2012/13 are from the August 10, 2012, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference
U.S. Farm Prices for Corn Source: Projections for 2011/12 and 2012/13 are from the August 10, 2012, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference
U.S. Corn Total Use Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, August 10, 2012. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference
U.S. Corn Use for Ethanol Production Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, August 10, 2012. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference
Renewable Fuel Standard Source: Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference
Weekly Ethanol Production Source: DOE-Energy Information Administration, Weekly Petroleum Status Report. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference
Ethanol and Gasoline Prices Reformulate Gasoline Blend Stock (RBOB) $.40 8/21/12 Ethanol Note: Ethanol prices based on CBOT nearby futures. RBOB (Reformulated Gasoline Blend Stock) based on NYME nearby futures. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference
U.S. Corn Feed & Residual Disappearance Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, August 10, 2012. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference
U.S. Corn Production and Feed & Residual Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, August 10, 2012. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference
U.S. Corn Exports Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, August 10, 2012. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference
World Corn Exports Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, August 10, 2012. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference
World Corn Consumption Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, August 10, 2012. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference
Rest-of-world Corn Harvested Area and Yield Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, August 10, 2012. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference
Rest-of-world Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, August 10, 2012. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference
Selected Northern Hemisphere Corn Producers Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, August 10, 2012. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference
June Dryness across Southern Europe 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference
July Heat across South Eastern Europe 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference
June Dryness in Ukraine and Southern Russia DROUGHT DROUGHT Spring dryness turned to early-summer drought in Ukraine, while drought persisted in central Russia 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference
July Heat in Ukraine and Southern Russia 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference
Selected Southern Hemisphere Corn Producers Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, August 10, 2012. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference
World Corn Production & Consumption Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, August 10, 2012. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference
World Corn Ending Stocks Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, August 10, 2012. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference
World Corn Stocks Relative to Use Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, August 10, 2012. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference
Wheat Situation & Outlook 2012/13 • U.S. wheat supply and demand outlook • Rebound in acreage • Record yields • Larger supplies and higher usage • Prices rise with corn • Global wheat supply and demand outlook • World production down • Weather reduced crops in EU-27 and FSU-12 • 2008/09 and 2009/10 production supports stocks • World stocks well above levels in 2007/08 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference
U.S. Wheat Planted Area Source: USDA-NASS, Crop Production, August 10, 2012. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference
U.S. Winter Wheat Production 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference
U.S. Spring Wheat Production 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference
Wheat Largely Unaffected by Developing Drought May 29, 2012 June 26, 2012 August 7, 2012 July 17, 2012 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference
U.S. Wheat Yields Source: USDA-NASS, Crop Production, August 10, 2012. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference
U.S. Wheat Production Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, August 10, 2012. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference
U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks and Stocks-to-Use Source: Projections for 2012/13 from the August 10, 2012, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference
U.S. Farm Prices for Wheat Source: Projection for 2012/13 from the August 10, 2012, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference
U.S. Wheat Total Use Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, August 10, 2012. 12th South African Agricultural Outlook Conference