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Modelling Activities at CAWCR, 2010: Selected Highlights

Modelling Activities at CAWCR, 2010: Selected Highlights. Presenter: Gary Dietachmayer WGNE-26 Tokyo, 18-22 October 2010. Overview – riding instructions.

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Modelling Activities at CAWCR, 2010: Selected Highlights

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  1. Modelling Activities at CAWCR, 2010:Selected Highlights Presenter: Gary Dietachmayer WGNE-26 Tokyo, 18-22 October 2010

  2. Overview – riding instructions From your perspective do you seek or can you provide some advice to other groups? Is there a need for a workshop on an issue that WGNE should be involved in? Are there any new concrete projects that would benefit from a group effort that WGNE can support? We have shortened the time for each report to 20 minutes including questions ………….. This means that we do not expect a full report on what happened at your centre in the last 12 months. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  3. Overview • New Supercomputers • Drove some timelines • CMIP5 related activities • Major activity • NWP (high-res) / SREP (grey-zone????) The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  4. Supercomputer • Combined bid with BoM and CSIRO/ANU/NCI • ‘Solar’ (BoM-HO) and ‘vayu’ (ANU) The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  5. Supercomputer (NEC SX6 – Solar) The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  6. Supercomputer (vayu) • 1492 nodes • Each of two quad-core Nehalem CPUs • Peak theoretical performance of approximately 140TFlops. • Total of 37TB of RAM on compute nodes • Approx 800 TBytes of usable global storage • (very) loose division: Solar for NWP, (fraction of vayu, approx 1,000 cores) for climate The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  7. Supercomputer (Solar timelines) • Feb 09 Contract signed • Jun 09 Phase One: Initial system delivery. • ….. resolution of a number of HW/SW issues ….. • 30 May 10 Phase Two: Full system ready for production use. • 22 Jun 10 Oracle and BoM declare system ready for operational use. • 29 Jun 10 NMOC declares the core ACCESS NWP suite operational on Solar. • 31 Aug 10 NMOC software suites operational on Solar, NEC decommissioned. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  8. CMIP5/CLIMATE (models) • CSIRO Mk3.6 AOGCM • Existing global AOGCM • CMIP5 long term only • Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (C-CAM) • Existing RCM – CAWCR is currently reviewing its RCM capability • CORDEX • Two African simulations • One by McGregor at al., CAWCR/CSIRO • One by collaborators at Univ. Pretoria. • Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) • New global AOGCM/ESM • CMIP5 long term initially The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  9. CMIP5 (CSIRO Mk3.6) • Features: • Atmosphere: Grid T63 (1.875 x 1.875); 18 levels - hybrid sigma,p • Ocean: MOM2.2 code; Grid 0.94 NS x 1.875 EW; 31 levels • Interactive aerosol treatment – sulfate, black carbon, organic carbon, mineral dust and sea salt • Upgraded radiation scheme, upgraded (non-local) PBL scheme • Anthropogenic aerosol impact on Australian rainfall • Shadings indicate significance at the 5% and the 1% level The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  10. CMIP5 (CSIRO Mk3.6) The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  11. CMIP5 (ACCESS coupled model) • Atmosphere: UKMO UM Grid N96 (1.875 x 1.25); 38 levels • Sea Ice: CICE 4 Grid 1.0 x 1.0, enhanced tropical; 46 levels • Coupler: OASIS 3.2.5 or 4 • Ocean: “AusCOM” MOM 4p1 • Land surface/carbon cycle: “CABLE” (Kowalczyk et al. 2006) + CASA-CNP + LPJ dynamic vegetation The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  12. CMIP5 (ACCESS coupled model) • For AR5 timeline, AOGCM only • Status • Components coupled and numerous centennial-length simulations performed • Now have two versions • Atmosphere – HadGEM2 settings (much delayed) • Atmosphere – proto-HadGEM3 settings + modifications • Extensive evaluation underway • Resources • New NCI machine (share ~1,000 cores) • 6 coupled simulations in parallel at 4 years per day • should be adequate to perform “core” experiments in 4 months The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  13. CMIP5 (ACCESS coupled model) ΔSST (model – obs) (K) Version with HadGEM2 atmosphere Version with proto-HadGEM3 atmosphere The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  14. CMIP5 (ACCESS coupled model) • Aims for AR5 (as early as possible 2011) • All “core” long term CMIP5 simulations • Consider select “Tier 1” and “Tier 2” if time • Aims for CMIP5 subsequent to AR5 • Tier 1 and Tier 2 expanded set • ESM participation (include carbon cycle) • CFMIP (?) • Transpose-AMIP (?) • Potential – CMIP5 short term decadal • Potential – CMIP5 atmospheric chemistry • Potential if Univ. collaboration – PMIP • Model output • Post-processing using CMOR; hosted at NCI ESG node/gateway The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  15. ACCESS-NWP (APS0 timelines) • “APS0”: • Replicates legacy domains • G – Global (80km) • R – Regional (38km) • T – Tropical (38km) • A – Australian Meso (12km) • C – City (5km) • TC – Tropical Cyclone (12km) • G, R, T went operational Sept/Oct 2009 on NEC-SX6 • Solar declared operational June-22 2010 • G, R, T, A – June-29 • C operational – August-12 • Last forecasts from GASP, LAPS, TXLAPS, MesoLAPS, MALAPS – August-17 • NEC-SX6 shutdown – August-31 • Not yet operational – TC, UM-based-Ozone The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  16. ACCESS-NWP (APS0 G Verification) The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  17. ACCESS-NWP (APS0 R/T/A verification) • MSLP • S1 (upper) • RMS (middle) • Bias (lower) • Sep-2009 to Aug-2010 (R, T) • Nov-2009 to Aug-2010 (A) • Up to 72hr (R, T) • Up to 48hr (A) LAPS,ACCESS-R TXLAPS,ACCESS-T MesoLAPS,MALAPS, ACCESS-A The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  18. ACCESS-NWP (ACCESS-C) • “Tropical” city systems (Brisbane, Sydney) crashed often in development • Signal was localised run-away vertical-velocities • Resistant to UM targeted-diffusion • Were using UKMO 4km system parameters, but for now “old” model (v6.4) • “Grey zone” issue??? • Experiment with convective-settings • Change CAPE-closure from “Grid-box-area scaled” to “vertical-velocity dependent” • Stronger coupling between developing instability and stabilising action of parameterised convection The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  19. ACCESS-NWP (ACCESS-C) • Change stabilises and (probably) improves rainfall accuracy The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  20. ACCESS-NWP (ACCESS-TC) • ACCESS-TC close to complete • Assim/Forecast components in place, number of promising studies for NH and SH TCs • Post-processing/diagnostic tools being finalised • Addition of TC-bogus to other ACCESS systems • Should be ready for Aus TC season The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  21. ACCESS-NWP (APS1 - Domains) • APS0: • Replicates legacy domains • APS1: • No 0.375o equivalent • N320 global, some experimentation with N512 • Meso domain now focussed on ACCESS-R replacement • No TXLAPS equivalent ?? • L50 -> L70 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  22. ACCESS-NWP (APS1 – Model/Assim) • “Catch-up”: move from UM 6.4 to 7.5 • Re-examine model issues from APS0 • Convection / Precipitation for “C” (and “R-12” !), particularly in (semi) tropics • Grey-Zone Project ??? • (Very) large velocities at top-of-model in “R”, feeding into “C”. • New/extended satellite data • IASI, NOAA-19 ATOVS, GPS-RO, hourly AMVs • SSMI/S out of scope for APS1, high-priority for APS2 • Improved background error specification for ACCESS-R12 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  23. SREP (Strategic Radar Enhancement Project) • CAWCR: Improve the underlying science to assimilate radar data into the Bureau’s NWP models • OEB: Install 4 new radars • (Eventual) Replacement for city based systems • 5km → ~2km • 00 & 12Z → 00, 03, 06, 09, 12, …. • Assimilation • In situ obs & satellite • Doppler winds • Precipitation • “Catch-up The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  24. SREP (Strategic Radar Enhancement Project) • Sydney 1.5km resolution ‘test-bed’. • Focus is very much on DA, but some model development/evaluation is budgeted for. • Will have 5km and 1.5km models running over similar domain • “Grey Zone” project??? The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  25. A Grey Lunch • Some Australian perspectives on the morning discussion …… • ECMWF global resolution = Australian-Meso resolution • Martin’s global grey-zone is our Meso • UKV style “jump-across” grey-zone probably not feasible for us – Aus domain is too large • Conclusion – we should be supportive here • Nice words, or contribution? • Don’t currently have CRM/LES capability, nor world’s largest SC. • Possibilities …. • Do some of the simulations at the coarse-end (liase with UK?) • Contribute to some of the analysis • In-house • In collaboration with Uni-sector via ACCESS? (*) The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  26. MBM (My Burridge Moment ……. with apologies to Dave) • Perhaps this is a uniquely Aussie affliction, but the R&D branch of the Australian “Operational Centre” is very different now to five years ago. • CAWCR has responsibility for both NWP & Climate R&D. • Already have UK-based unified systems for NWP & Climate, will slowly move to include RCM, SP, etc under this framework. • An NWP scientist who might have been deployed to, say, high-res AMIP, can now be deployed directly to, say, help tuning of the coupled system for CMIP5 – which of those activities has the higher profile? • Take home story: the “pitch” as to why an “operational centre” might want to join a project may vary significantly from OC to OC. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

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