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Modelling Activities at CAWCR, 2014

Modelling Activities at CAWCR, 2014. Presenter: Gary Dietachmayer, on behalf of colleagues throughout CAWCR WGNE-29 Melbourne, 10-13 March 2014. POAMA-M24 (Seasonal prediction system) – March 27, 2013 APS1 ACCESS-R – Apr-17 2013 APS1 ACCESS-C – Oct-8 2013 Solar – Ngamai switch – Dec 2013

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Modelling Activities at CAWCR, 2014

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  1. Modelling Activities at CAWCR, 2014 Presenter: Gary Dietachmayer, on behalf of colleagues throughout CAWCR WGNE-29 Melbourne, 10-13 March 2014

  2. POAMA-M24 (Seasonal prediction system) – March 27, 2013 APS1 ACCESS-R – Apr-17 2013 APS1 ACCESS-C – Oct-8 2013 Solar – Ngamai switch – Dec 2013 APS1 ACCESS-TC – Dec-19 2013 (NWP) Ensembles NCI / NeCTAR (Tuesday – Tim Pugh) SREP / FDP (Wednesday Hi-res NWP) Major forecast systems summary The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-29, Melbourne, 10-13 March 2014

  3. A reminder on forecast system names …. ACCESS – G / R / C / TC “POAMA” – Predictive Ocean Atmosphere model for Australia The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-29, Melbourne, 10-13 March 2014

  4. POAMA P24 to M24 • Core elements largely unchanged (BAM3, T47/250km, L17, ACOM2, two-deg, L25) • More emphasis on shorter (multiweek, instraseasonal) FCs, better early spread • Introduction of atmospheric perturbations via breeding method (3 x 11) Upper-tercile precip P24, M24 • Significant MJO improvement – 0.5 RMM correl 17 -> 22.5 days The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-29, Melbourne, 10-13 March 2014

  5. APS1 ACCESS-R (changes) • Regional model rationalisation: “A0” + “R0” -> “R1” (12km, L70, large-domain) • Component upgrades (eg., UM 6.4 -> 7.5) • Additional data: • IASI, GPS-RO, locally-processed ATOVS (RARS) • R0 (left), R1 (right) The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-29, Melbourne, 10-13 March 2014

  6. APS1 ACCESS-R (performance) The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-29, Melbourne, 10-13 March 2014

  7. APS1 ACCESS-R (performance) Best, middle, worst The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-29, Melbourne, 10-13 March 2014

  8. APS1 ACCESS-R (performance) The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-29, Melbourne, 10-13 March 2014

  9. APS1 ACCESS-C (changes) • Component upgrades (eg., UM 6.4 -> 7.6) • Resolution (0.05 -> 0.036 deg, L50 -> L70) • Nesting in APS1 ACCESS-R • New (trial) Darwin domain • Still FC-only (no DA), now with two-step reconfig • Operational-timing driven in part by SC upgrade • Is still “overly convective” for tropical stability The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-29, Melbourne, 10-13 March 2014

  10. APS1 ACCESS-C (performance) • For many variables, similar to APS0 • Forecasters report improved wind-changes (topog/res?) • However - worse T2m than APS0 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-29, Melbourne, 10-13 March 2014

  11. Good: Mossvale station – APS1 better OBSAPS1APS0 MOSS VALE AWS ,-34.5253, 150.4217 (Lat,Lon)

  12. Bad: Bankstown station – APS0 better OBSAPS1APS0 BANKSTOWN ,-33.9181, 150.9864 (Lat,Lon)

  13. APS1 Urban Fractions are realistic Almost No Urban Areas in APS0 APS1 APS0 0.01 0.1 0.01 0.1

  14. APS0 Urban fractions are not …. Almost No Urban Areas in APS0 APS1 APS0 0.01 0.1 0.01 0.1

  15. ACCESS-C (SY) - impact of Urban/Tree APS0 looks good because it has almost no urban tile fractions and shorter trees!

  16. Solar – Ngamai SC upgrade • Solar decommissioned Dec 2013 • Ngamai declared operational Dec 2013 • 576 compute nodes, 6912 compute cores (Intel Sandy Bridge) • Opn-Capacity: 12.5 Tflops (0.25 * 50) -> 52 Tflops (0.5 * 104) • Example: • APS1 ACCESS-G wall-clock: 95 min -> 59 min The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-29, Melbourne, 10-13 March 2014

  17. APS1 ACCESS-TC • Usual component/level upgrade (UM 7.5 / L70) • Had tried this previously with no success • Upgraded forecast-error covariances (over full TC domain), vortex-specification • Helped with previous 4DVar excursions • Improvement in long-period track, also removes last “APS0” elements from suite “APS10”,APS1 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-29, Melbourne, 10-13 March 2014

  18. Towards APS2: ACCESS-G • N512 (25km), L70, UM 8.2 early trial system running for months now • Obs-set not yet complete – require upgrade of current OPS • Still to do: SSMIS (from F17/18), CrIS/ATMS (Suomi-NPP), OSCAT, Windsat Aust NH The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-29, Melbourne, 10-13 March 2014

  19. Towards APS2: Plans • Regional (R) – technical upgrade only • Flag possible retirement in APS3+ ????? • City (C) – 2.2km convection-permitting, still FC-only • Ensembles – finally get the N216 global ensemble to operations • “ACCESS-X” – on-demand system(s) • Have used early-prototype – eg., to setup research-only 1.5km Darwin

  20. Towards POAMA3 • POAMA3/ACCESS • To supersede POAMA-2P and 2M • Based on ACCESS1.0 coupled model • Full coupled initialisation (PECDAS) • Operational ~2015 (??) • Achievements • Trial POAMA3/ACCESS system implemented on raijin • Extensive hindcast set is being performed (1980 – present) The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-29, Melbourne, 10-13 March 2014

  21. ACCESS “ESM1” Annual mean net ocean (red) and land (black) carbon flux to atmosphere. Aim is zero flux under pre-industrial conditions. Global flux (PgC/y) Year The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology • ACCESS ESM1 = ACCESS1.4 + carbon cycle + CABLE 2.1 + OASIS-MCT • Coupling successfully achieved, carbon exchanged between land, ocean and atmosphere • Interactive or prescribed atmospheric CO2 • Currently running prescribed CO2 pre-industrial case • Assessing stability of carbon fluxes • Historical and 2 RCP cases to follow. • 14/15 Emissions-driven simulations • Interactive atmospheric CO2 • Pre-industrial, historical, RCP • With and without land-use change

  22. ACCESS-CM2 development • Motivation for upgraded model • Anticipate improvements in realism due to improved model physics and resolution • World-class Australian contribution to CMIP6 and tool for climate science • Upgrade required for effective national and international partnerships • Plan – ACCESS-CM2 • Enhanced vertical atmospheric resolution – 85 levels • Based on “GA6” atmospheric code • Horizontal atmospheric resolution • Lower resolution “N96” (as current) version • Higher resolution “N216” (~0.55°lat; ~0.8°lon) version • Horizontal oceanic resolution – compare 1, 0.25 degree • Development of high-res versions depends on efficiency on raijin • Include CABLE2 using the JULES framework The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology 22

  23. Achievements - ACCESS-CM2 development New atmospheric component GA6.0 implemented at NCI • At standard (N96) resolution so far – higher res (N216) will follow • 25-year test simulation is underway – 8 years done so far • Work is underway to couple to the other model components There has been good progress in coupling CABLE to the atmospheric code via JULES. A collaboration has been established with the CoECSS in ocean model development • Global ocean model (0.25° lat/lon) implemented using the MOM5 code • Potential to adopt as ocean component for ACCESS-CM2 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  24. Thank you The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Gary Dietachmayer ESM/AMP RGL (acting) Phone: 03 9669 4749 Email: G.Dietachmayer@bom.gov.au Web: www.cawcr.gov.au Thank you www.cawcr.gov.au

  25. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology WGNE-29, Melbourne, 10-13 March 2014

  26. From Best et al (2006) • “model runs revealed MOSES2.2 to be sensitive to changes in the canopy heat storage” • “Model performance was optimum with heat capacity values smaller than those generally considered” • The Urban tile canopy heat capacity parameter is “not well defined and cannot be measured” • “we conclude that the basic canopy scheme in MOSES 2.2 does not adequately capture the physical processes of the urban atmosphere to accurately represent an urban area.”

  27. Jules Urban Typesfrom Porson et al 2010 Default Scheme Experimental Schemes Roof Roof Urban Canopy Canyon Canyon Fixed Tb Soil Soil Soil Comparison against observations from Mexico city

  28. Conclusions • Many observing stations are in Urban areas • Most Australians live in the Big cities! • Properties of the Urban tile and Tree heights are important • Models make simplistic assumptions about tree heights • Need for an accurate spatial map of Tree heights • Need for Improved Urban and Lake Tile Models for ACCESS • We have performed NWP tests with revised Urban parameters and tree heights that show significant improvements in forecasts

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