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INDONESIA : E CONOMIC OUTLOOK 20 10-11 Faisal Basri 29 Juli 2010

INDONESIA : E CONOMIC OUTLOOK 20 10-11 Faisal Basri 29 Juli 2010. Part I The World Economy. The world economic outlook, 2009-2011. * Projection Source s : IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2010. Leading economic indocators kian membaik. Oil prices have roughly doubled since Feb.

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INDONESIA : E CONOMIC OUTLOOK 20 10-11 Faisal Basri 29 Juli 2010

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  1. INDONESIA:ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2010-11Faisal Basri29 Juli 2010

  2. Part IThe World Economy

  3. The world economic outlook, 2009-2011 * Projection Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2010

  4. Leading economic indocatorskianmembaik

  5. Oil prices have roughly doubled since Feb. Crude Oil Lt Sweet Pit (Nymex) August 2010 03:58 p.m EDT US$76.81 = Source: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities.html • Adjusted by producer-price index = US$118 • Adjusted by annual income within G-7 countries = US$134 • Adjusted by disposable income of US = US$145 • Spending on oil as a share of global output = US$150 • Source: Economist, April 17, 2008.

  6. Oil prices and stock market =10,497.88 Source: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities.html

  7. Oil prices and gold (Dec., Comex) =$1165.9 Source: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities.html

  8. The “financialization” of commodities has led to greater financial investor interest Remarks by John Lipsky (IMF) At the 4th OPEC International SeminarVienna, March 18, 2009 (http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2009/pdf/031809.pdf)

  9. Now … governments are the problems Maastricht Treaty: - Budget deficit < 3% of GDP - Debt/GDP ratio < 60%

  10. Bagian IIPerekonomian Indonesia

  11. Economic temperature cooler .. Inflation returns 1 digit, y-o-y, % Target BI: 5% + 1% 18.4 14.6 percent 5.0 4.6 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: BPS.

  12. Inflation remains high in the region August inflation, y.o.y Source: World Bnak, September 2009

  13. BI Rate bertahan di 6.5 persen Sampai akhir tahun berpotensi menuju 7% Source: Bank Indonesia.

  14. Money market rates vs. BI rate

  15. Anomali ….

  16. Level of credits to GDP, 2009

  17. Perbandingansektorkeuangandi Asia-pasifik

  18. Belanja pemerintah masih seret Dana yang ditarik pemerintah (pajak, SUN, ORI, Sukuk) parkir dalam rekening pemerintah di BI. Belanja APBN yang tersendat (a.l. karena eskalasi biaya proyek) juga berdampak negatif terhadap likuiditas. Source: Diolah oleh Danareksa Research Institute.

  19. Heart beat has been appreciating ... (Rupiah per US$) Source: Bank Indonesia

  20. Foreign reserves increasedmore than $7bil. (US$ million) Source: Bank Indonesia.

  21. Foreign ownership in bonds and SBIs Source: Bank Indonesia and MoF.

  22. Balance of payments (US$ million) Source: Bank Indonesia.

  23. Indonesia’s post-crisis journey Quarterly GDP growth, y-o-y, % 6.6 6.4 5.7 5.4 4.2 Gus Dur: “Erratic/shaky” Megawati: Consolidation and acceleration Crisis peak SBY: Throws away Momentum, and then made correction Pertumbuhan semester II sekitar 6.5%, sehingga rata-rata tahun ini sekitar 6.3% Source: BPS.

  24. Low quality — Sectoral growth rate(2000 base year, year-on-year growth rate, %) Source: BPS.

  25. Low quality growth, 2000-2009*(%) Non-tradable GDP Tradable Source: BPS.

  26. GDP growth by expenditure (y-o-y, %) * First quarter Source: BPS..

  27. Foreign merchandise trade Ekspor total maupun nonmigas mulai naik sejak Juni 2009 (m-to-m) Billion US$ Growth (yoy) Description * January-May Source: BPS.

  28. Foreign merchandise trade: monthly

  29. Composition of imports (%, Jan-May 2010)

  30. Trade balance Indonesia-China (non-oil & gas) US$ million *January-April Sources: BPS

  31. Indonesia: foreign visitors arrivals Visitors: 2008 = 6,234,497 2009 = 6,323,730 2010 (Jan-May) = 2,767,122 Growth: Dec 2009 (m-t-m) = 17.63% Jan-Dec 2009 (y-o-y) = 1.43% Jan-May 2010 (y-o-y) = 14.6% 2008 2009 2010 Sources:BPS

  32. Indeks tendensi konsumen Source: BPS.

  33. Indeks tendensi bisnis Source: BPS.

  34. Bagian IIIPeluangdanTantanganPemerintahanBaru

  35. Red shirts make bloody protest MARCH 2010: Supporters of former premier Thaksin Shinawatra hold canisters with human blood before pouring it outside the Government house in Bangkok. http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/3461303/Thai-protesters-pour-blood

  36. Protestors burn churches in Malaysia January 2010 In God's name? A combustible mixture of race, religion and politics http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15271154

  37. Menuju keseimbangan politik baru? • Perubahan dalam koalisi yang disertai dengan perombakan kabinet. • “Disiplin” koalisi: sehingga akan lebih lugas antara partai-partai koalisi dan partai-partai oposisi. • Pengungkapan borok-borok masa lalu: positif untuk pembersihan?

  38. Faktor-faktor pengerem • Para ketua umum partai punya agenda tersendiri untuk hadapi 2014. • Tarik-menarik di posisi-posisi strategis, termasuk di BUMN. • Kekompakan kabinet terganggu. • Kompromi-kompromi politik • Agenda populisme mengedepan. • Agak sulit mengharapkan perubahan drastik.

  39. Bagian IVProspek 2010-14

  40. Projections of GDP by several agencies

  41. Projections of GDP by expenditure * Actual ** Projection Sources: BPS and LP3E Kadin Indonesia.

  42. Projections of GDP by sector *Projection Sources: BPS and LP3E Kadin Indonesia.

  43. Indonesia: selected economic indicators

  44. Terima Kasih Email: faisal.basri@gmail.com Blog: http://kompasiana.com/faisalbasri

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