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Demographic Trends: A brief overview

Demographic Trends: A brief overview. The demographic challenge. Province. Males. Females. 1991. 2006. 2021. Source: Department of Finance, Economics and Statistics Branch, 2006, medium scenario, data rounded. The demographic challenge. Province. Province excl. CMA. Males. Females.

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Demographic Trends: A brief overview

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  1. Demographic Trends:A brief overview

  2. The demographic challenge Province Males Females 1991 2006 2021 Source: Department of Finance, Economics and Statistics Branch, 2006, medium scenario, data rounded

  3. The demographic challenge Province Province excl. CMA Males Females Males Females 1991 2006 2021 Source: Department of Finance, Economics and Statistics Branch, 2006, medium scenario, data rounded

  4. Communities 5,000+ people * Province Males Females Males Females 1991 2006 * Cities and communities in the St. John’s CMA are not included. Source: Department of Finance, Economics and Statistics Branch, 2006

  5. Communities 2,500-4,999 people * Province Males Females Males Females 1991 2006 * Cities and communities in the St. John’s CMA are not included. Source: Department of Finance, Economics and Statistics Branch, 2006

  6. Communities 1,000-2,499 people * Province Males Females Males Females 1991 2006 * Cities and communities in the St. John’s CMA are not included. Source: Department of Finance, Economics and Statistics Branch, 2006

  7. Communities < 1,000 people * Province Males Females Males Females 1991 2006 * Cities and communities in the St. John’s CMA are not included. Source: Department of Finance, Economics and Statistics Branch, 2006

  8. Key Demographic Change:Declining School Enrolment 1986 139,378 Enrolment projections estimated by Rural Secretariat based on historical trends 1992 121,772 2007 74,304 2021 55,500 Source: Community Accounts

  9. Key Demographic Change:Declining Youth (Ages 15-29) 1986 161,900 1992 152,200 2007 94,600 2021 68,900 Source: Statistics Canada and Department of Finance, Economics and Statistics Branch, 2006, medium scenario

  10. Key Demographic Change:Declining Child Bearing Age Population (Ages 15-49) 1992 329,000 1986 314,500 2007 245,500 2021 183,600 Source: Statistics Canada and Department of Finance, Economics and Statistics Branch, 2006, medium scenario

  11. Key Demographic Change:Declining Labour Supply (Ages 15-64) 1992 397,600 1986 378,800 2007 359,800 2021 305,200 Source: Statistics Canada and Department of Finance, Economics and Statistics Branch, 2006, medium scenario

  12. Key Demographic Change:More Seniors 2021 118,000 2007 70,600 1992 56,700 1986 50,300 Source: Statistics Canada and Department of Finance, Economics and Statistics Branch, 2006, medium scenario

  13. Challenges and Opportunities • Fewer children • School closures or opportunity to re-think how we provide education services? • Fewer workers • Labour shortages or job opportunities for younger workers? • More seniors • More demand for government services or new business opportunities? • Changes at community level • Fewer leaders and volunteers (e.g., town councils, fire protection) or opportunity for communities to share more services?

  14. Rural Secretariat’sCitizen and Community Engagement • Rural Secretariat is engaging broad range of citizens • Municipal leaders, youth, community groups, business owners, seniors, etc. • Objectives – build capacity and transfer knowledge • Focus on long term planning, not short term reactions • Common themes and findings • Youth have strong views – less caught up in the “way it was” • Broad understanding of the need for change • Discussions are based on possibility – not complaints

  15. Rural Secretariat Executive Council Tel: (709) 729-0168 Fax: (709)729-1673 E-mail: ruralinfo@gov.nl.ca www.gov.nl.ca/rural

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