GLOBALISATION AND POPULATION CHANGES: AN OPPORTUNITY FOR CITIES

1. GLOBALISATIONAND POPULATION CHANGES:AN OPPORTUNITY FOR CITIES Professor Sir Peter Hall Conference OPEN CITIES Madrid 28 February 2008

2. The World goes to Town

3. The Urban Explosion UN: 3.2 billion urbanites 2007, nearly 5 billion 2030 2030: 60% in cities Biggest increase: Asia and Africa - poorest, least-urbanised, least able to cope Ethiopia, Malawi, Uganda: 90%+ urbanites in slums By 2017: nearly 500 cities of 1m+ 2020: 9 cities 20m+ - Delhi, Dhaka, Jakarta, Lagos, Mexico City, Mumbai, New York, S�o Paulo and Tokyo Greater Tokyo 2007: 35m, more than Canada

4. Mega-City-Growth:A Developing-World Phenomenon�

5. �but slowing down�

6. Africa, Asia catch up

7. Growth of the Mega-Cities

8. Urban Magnets v. Liveable Cities

9. The New Urban Magnets Highly clustered: USA, Western Europe, Gulf USA, Australia: return to early 20th century � but more varied Europe, Gulf: new (1980-) Top places: global cities + Gulf cities But: some big cities have few immigrants

10. Top Immigrant Cities (1m+)A Developed-World Phenomenon 1m+: 37 cities, 19% total 9 in North America (8 USA) 3 in Europe 4 in Middle East (Saudi Arabia 3) 2 in Asia 2 in Australia/ Oceania

11. Top Immigrant Cities ctd 100k+ USA, Europe USA: Sunbelt cities Europe: 30 cities; many 10+% Russia: USSR breakup Gulf: temporaries (Dubai 80% foreign) E Asia: low % Latin America: outflow Africa: only Johannesburg, Accra

12. The immigrants head for the Sunbelt 8/10 states with biggest Mexican increase in S But also Mid-West Spreading out|: Suburbs, Small towns, rural areas Big Latino enclaves: Dalton GA, Garden City KS, Storm Lake IA, Nashville TN Economic relocation D. Massey New Faces in New Places (Russell Sage Foundation 2008)

13. The Immigrants head for the Suburbs USA: 100 largest metropolitan areas, 1990-2000: Immigrant population growth +54.8% Central Cities +21.7% Suburbs +63.7% 68/100: Suburbs grew faster

14. Hyper-Diverse Cities 9.5%+ foreign-born (=average for developed countries) No country 25%+ From all regions Established gateways: New York, London, Toronto: 9m foreign-born Also: Sydney; Amsterdam; Copenhagen; Washington, DC; Hamburg; Munich; San Francisco; Seattle

15. London under Study: 1957-2007

16. London Plans 1943 2004

17. London Voices 2007

18. London Lives: Friends and Neighbours Generally, good neighbourhood quality � �everyone middle class� People valued neighbourliness But a minority troubled � anti-social behaviour In some areas: �going downhill�: people feared newcomers Clash of lifestyles But a contrast: �melting pots� versus �pressured proletarian islands�

19. London Lives: Fearing Crime, Avoiding Crime Not a problem for most But a big problem for some � anti-social behaviour Newcomers blamed Yearning for old-style policing Survival of informal justice - �the lads would have a word with him� Key individuals play a role

20. London Lives: Melting the Pot Complex prejudices Less racial than �cultural�, especially schools People want multi-cultural schools Racism in old white working-class communities (�pressured proletarian islands�) But unusual: many areas changing as people move

21. Recipes for Integration Big diverse cities thrive: New York, Los Angeles, Toronto, Sydney, London, Paris, Amsterdam But can collapse: pre-World War I Vienna, pre-World War II Warsaw, recently Beirut, Sarajevo, and Srebrenica Integration depends on "bedrock" public social policies: public education, health care, and income support But also: needs subtle local policies to integrate�

22. Routes to Inclusion

23. Immigration: A century-old debate National identity based on revolutionary solidarity: France, USA Multiculturalism based on colonial experience (Divide and Rule): UK, Netherlands Composite nationalities: Spain, Belgium, former Austro-Hungary, former Yugoslavia All have problems!