Data base and estimation revisited

1. Coordinating Group on Child MortalityEstimationSummary of MeetingNew York, July 16-17, 2007UNICEF House

2. Data base and estimation revisited • A brief history of the child mortality estimation was presented by Gareth Jones (GJ) • The child mortality database was described by Trevor Croft (TC) in its original formulation as well as in DevInfo application • TC also reviewed the proposal of including primary data as part of the CM data base It is possible • Interesting discussion around the lack of functionality of the current work developed by the group. It is recommended to

3. Data base and estimation..(cont..) • Define more clearly the basic scope of the CM-DB (data disaggregation, data entry, estimation, neonatal, etc.) focus on the basic for CM estimation? • Include as a basic issue for the CM-DB the work at the country level regional training • Make sure that the magnitude of the desired work is properly supported on the financial side by agencies involved WHO will have 2 full time person devoted to this task and UNICEF will have a more specific proposal before the end of the meeting.

4. Procedures and Alternatives • Ken Hill (KH) described and compared the current procedure used by the group as well as the approach proposed under IHMEDo we need to change our procedures? • John Wilmouth (JW) presented the approach for a wider mortality database Long term proposal to be developed in a parallel way with the group’s efforts for the CM-DB • Mie Inoue (MI) also presented WHO’s tool for data dissemination under Swivel, R package + Wiki ??

5. Country Estimates, analysis and discussion • Brief discussion on the major issues when dealing with country specific estimates. • Examples of difficult countries: Iraq, Zimbabwe, Cambodia among others • This to be left for a smaller group of technical experts from the agencies (WHO, UNICEF, World Bank and UN Population Division) • See also summary of actions report at the end.

6. Uncertainty bounds and estimates • One of the challenges for the group • It was recommended to develop In-depth assessment of CM estimation procedures and approaches for uncertainty bounds of estimates. 15 countries: Egypt, Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya, Zimbabwe, Indonesia, Thailand, Bangladesh, Colombia, Guatemala, Morocco, Burkina Faso, Senegal, Mexico, India. Preliminary Research Note by End of September • See file on actions

7. Time since first birth methodology (TSFB) • The approach to indirect estimate child mortality was presented. • Results are encouraging but need to be used cautiously on a country by country basis • Special care to be taken when applied in countries with relatively low levels of child mortality. • It was recommended to use TSFB estimation as part of the child mortality estimation and sampling errors estimation for indirect estimates

8. Reporting on progress towards MDG4 • A proposal was presented by UNICEF to report on progress towards reducing the U5MR observed in1990 by two thirds in 2015 • The group consider this not a priority over which to decide during this meeting and rather to focus the work in how to solve the other identified issues. • Could be revisited in future meetings/conference call

9. Neonatal mortality • The discussion was on the idea for the group to include the neonatal indicator for yearly reporting/monitoring • The neonatal mortality is considered to be better for reporting than IMR • Unfortunately the invited experts in this area were unable to attend • It was recommended to have a sub-group to coordinate this work as well as the sex estimation

10. Regional training • Regional training on mortality estimation was considered of paramount importance for the group • This training is going to be combined with training in maternal mortality estimation • Efforts are in place to raise the needed funds • Procedures for implementation are going to be developed • Training will start by Spring 2008

11. Publications • It was proposed to work on the idea of having a joint publication to present methodology and current results • Presentation of country profiles were also discussed along the line of the immunization booklet prepared by WHO and UNICEF • These two ideas, although of interest, were considered to be of a lesser importance at this time and are to be rather revisited later on

12. Participants

13. Coordinating Group on Child MortalityEstimationAction PointsNew York, July 16-17 2007

14. Work to be completed before the end of 2007 • Work on the DevInfo adaptation of the CM-DB: Edilberto L • Populate the CM-DB with new and available data as well as more recent proposed estimates: End of September • Update of DHS, TC • Vital events, WHO • UNPD • CELADE, D.Jaspers • 2006 CM estimates – together with small interagency team to review and agree on estimates (3 categories). Emi, Mie, Francois, Edilberto Have substantial public accessible outputs on web by end September? • In-depth assessment of CM estimation procedures and approaches for uncertainty bounds of estimates. Ken H, (JW, TC, JP, NW?) 15 countries: Egypt, Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya, Zimbabwe, Indonesia, Thailand, Bangladesh, Colombia, Guatemala, Morocco, Burkina Faso, Senegal, Mexico, India. Preliminary Research Note by End of September 5. Coordination of work on neonatal and sex estimation (who?). Kenji and Cheryl 6. Use of TSFB estimation as part of the CM estimation and sampling errors estimation for indirect estimates: Ken H. & Trevor C. August 2007 (Working paper) Above three would be previewed on web at end September? 7. Funding for regional training: Neff Walker. Submission of proposal for funding by the end of August. Develop procedures for implementation (End of December) 8. Joint publication. Work towards 2008 publication, country by country profile.

15. Monitoring • One page report at the end August (Gareth Jones) and one for each month between September and December. Edilberto Loaiza • Conference call mid-September: Emi Suzuki • Next meeting: 2008