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Post-USSR land cover change in Eastern Europe

socioeconomic forcings, effects on biodiversity and future scenarios. Post-USSR land cover change in Eastern Europe. Volker Radeloff University of Wisconsin-Madison. Funded by A NEESPI Project. Background.

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Post-USSR land cover change in Eastern Europe

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  1. socioeconomic forcings, effects on biodiversity and future scenarios Post-USSR land cover change in Eastern Europe Volker Radeloff University of Wisconsin-Madison Funded by A NEESPI Project

  2. Background • Rapid land cover change in Eastern European since the breakdown of the USSR • Widespread agricultural abandonment followed by conversion to shrublands and forest Agricultural area change from 1991 to 1997; USDA

  3. Background • Socio-economic trends differ markedly among neighboring countries with similar ecological conditions Change in nighttime lights 1993-2000. Yellow/red: more lights, blue: fewer lights, NOAA-NESDIS

  4. Background A ‘natural experiment’ in Eastern Europe allows to test hypotheses on the relative importance of environmental versus socioeconomic factors as controls and forcings of land cover and land cover change and thereby on biodiversity

  5. Objectives • Monitor land cover and land use change (LCLUC) in Eastern Europe • Examine socioeconomic and political changes as forcing functions for LCLUC • Examine effects of LCLUC on biodiversity • Simulate future LCLUC scenarios and examine potential biodiversity effects

  6. Socio- economics Land cover Biodiversity Objectives

  7. Approach • Current land cover from MODIS data • Separating plowed from fallow fields with spectral mixtureanalysis of MODISreflectance data Landcover in the study area

  8. Approach • Land cover change analysis with Landsat TM/ETM+ data • 1985 to 2002 data Landsat sample scenes

  9. Landsat TM Sep. 2000 RGB: 4,5,3

  10. Landsat TM1985-88

  11. Landsat TM/ETM+2000 Classificationbased on TM & ETM+ data from 2000

  12. Poland state farms (until 1990) Slovakia

  13. Socio- economics Land cover Biodiversity Objectives

  14. Approach • Regression analysis to identify forcing and controls of LCLUC • Socioeconomic variables • GDP, land ownership, urban markets, employment, population, housing, and households, agricultural statistics, “country” • Environmental variables • Climate, topography, soils

  15. Approach Hypothesis: Agricultural abandonment is controlled at broad scales by national economic and political conditions, and by climate patterns,and at fine scales by distance to urban markets, distance to major roads, topography, and soil quality

  16. Socio- economics Land cover Biodiversity Objectives

  17. Approach • Wildlife habitat analysis for three species of conservation concern • European Bison • Saiga antelope • Brown Bear • Umbrella speciesfor biodiversity Radio-collared bison in the Slovak Carpathians, Dec. 2004

  18. Approach • Radio-collar locationsas input for resource-selection functions • Habitat variables include land cover,fragmentation indices, and settlements Saiga with satellite radio-collar

  19. Approach • Radio-collar locationsas input for resource-selection functions • Habitat variables include land cover,fragmentation indices, and settlements

  20. Approach • Bear data is collected from local hunting departments viaan ArcGIS server • This allows onlinedigitizing of bearactivity and easydata transfer Arc/GIS server for bear mapping

  21. Socio- economics Land cover Biodiversity Objectives

  22. Timeline

  23. Collaborators • NGOs • WWF • Large Herbivore Foundation • Scientists • L. Balciauskas, Vilnius University, Lithuania • L. Baskin, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow • P. Hostert, and T. Kümmerle, Humboldt University • A. Lushchekina, Russian MAB Program, Moscow • K. Perzanowski, Polish Academy of Sciences • W. Schröder, Technical University, Munich

  24. Socio- economics Land cover Biodiversity Questions?

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