SPACE WEATHER FOR THE DOD WARFIGHTER: CURRENT OPS AND PLANNED IMPROVEMENTS

1. SPACE WEATHER FOR THE DOD WARFIGHTER: CURRENT OPS AND PLANNED IMPROVEMENTS Col John M. Lanicci, Ph.D. AFWA/CC

2. Overview • Roles and Responsibilities • The Space Weather Operations Center (WOC) • Customers and impacts • Current Capabilities • Shortfalls • Technology Transition and Near Term Projects • AFWA Tech Transition Process • GAIM Implementation at AFWA • Other near term projects • Way Ahead

3. Roles and Responsibilities Space Characterization Mission: • Plan and program for acquisition of ground-based sensing solutions to fulfill DoD space environmental monitoring requirements • Plan and program for acquisition of space-based sensing solutions to fulfill DoD space environmental monitoring requirements • Develop and maintain the space environmental 4-D (specification and prediction) data cube to include modeling

4. Roles and Responsibilities DoD Operational Mission:Through the Space WOC, provide 24/7 mission-tailored analyses, forecasts, and warnings of system-impacting space weather to DoD and National agency operators, warfighters, and decision-makers. Strategic Backup Mission:Civilian counterpart Space Environment Center (Boulder, CO) and AFWA are striving for federally-mandated mutual backup capability.

5. Customers and Impacts

6. Customers and Impacts Space Weather Mission Impacts: • HF Communication Centers: Routinely report dayside impacts during flares • UHF Impact: Deployed personnel struggled to provided a regular brief via SATCOM at 2100L… Infusion of scintillation forecast support convinced them to move brief time earlier with success. • HF Impact: Thule Greenland radio maintenance personnel observed unexplained several day outages… Infusion of space weather support revealed Polar Cap Absorption events (not broken radios) as the cause

7. Current Capabilities - Observations • Specification starts with collecting remote and in-situ data • Ground Based: Includes solar (optical & radio), ionosondes, magnetometers, GPS, SCINDA, and neutron monitors • Space Based: Includes DMSP, LANL, GOES, POES, ACE, SOHO • Data from many government and non-government sources • Data partnerships crucial

8. Current Capabilities - Modeling • Ionosphere • Large Scale: Parameterized Real-Time Ionospheric Specification Model (PRISM) • Specification only • Climatology adjusted from limited real-time data and conditioned by a global index • Scintillation: Wide Band MODel (WBMOD) • Climatology conditioned by location, time and a global disturbance index • Auroral: Hardy Oval • Specification only

9. Current Capabilities - Modeling • Magnetosphere: • Magnetospheric Specification and Forecast Model (MSFM) • Developed by Rice University • 3 hr Prediction of inner magnetosphere • Relativistic Electrons @ Geostationary • APL Developed • 27 day prediction • Solar Wind: Hakamada Akasofu Fry (HAF) Kinematic Solar Wind Model • Univ. Alaska - Fairbanks • 96 hr forecast

10. Shortfalls • While the Space WOC has considerable capability, the 4-D data cube has not been fully realized • AFWA lacks predictive models for several domains • Much modeling capability is based on conditional climatology driven by global indices… Need to move to physics based modeling as technology allows • Many domains are severely under sampled • Some shortfalls driven by a lack of basic research understanding • AFWA utilizes an aggressive Tech Transition process to combat these shortfalls • Partnerships are again crucial

11. Technology Leveraging Methods Warfighter-Required Technology AFRL, NRL, SEC, NCAR, NASA, UPOS, Universities • In-House (traditional) • Sole-Source (e.g., AFRL) • Community Approach (developed together) • Community Approach (survey & choose needed technology) AFWA/DNX SMC/ESC AFWA/SCS SEMS Contractor AFWA Operational Baseline

12. Technology Leveraging Methods Warfighter-Required Technology AFRL, NRL, SEC, NCAR, NASA, UPOS, Universities • In-House (traditional) • Sole-Source (e.g., AFRL) • Community Approach (developed together) • Community Approach (survey & choose needed technology) AFWA/DNX SMC/ESC AFWA/SCS SEMS Contractor AFWA Operational Baseline

13. GAIM Implementation • Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) Model: IOC Sep 06 • Initial release Gauss-Maukov • Uses a Kalman Filter to assimilate • Provides 24 hour forecast • Follow-on “full physics” upgrade planned for FY08 • Developed at Utah State with ONR funding. NRL manages the program. Transitioned by contractor. Visualization being done in house Global Local

14. Additional Projects • Data Initiatives • Create in-house Dst • SSUSI/SSULI Integration • TIMED, COSMIC, STEREO • South Atlantic Anomaly Specification • Model Initiatives • APL Radiation Belt and Auroral Models • NADIA upgrade for MSFM • Dst Prediction • Develop real-time metric program

15. Way Ahead • Integration of GAIM into operations will dominate the remainder of the fiscal year • Data issues (e.g. Dst, SSUSI/SSULI) will follow a close second • Continue with additions of targeted capabilities (e.g. Radiation Belt Model) to further enhance operations • Document operational capabilities through metrics to validate models and prioritize targeted improvements • Partnerships (as seen with GAIM) will continue to be crucial to the enhancement of operation support