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Ocean Carrier Outlook 2010/2011. November 18, 2010. 2008 Increased Carrier Costs. Carrier Fuel Costs Up 75% New ILWU Contract Inland Transport and Repositioning Costs Panama Canal Fees Rising Environmental and Security Initiatives Source: TPM 2008. 2008 Carrier Response.
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Ocean Carrier Outlook2010/2011 November 18, 2010
2008Increased Carrier Costs • Carrier Fuel Costs Up 75% • New ILWU Contract • Inland Transport and Repositioning Costs • Panama Canal Fees Rising • Environmental and Security Initiatives Source: TPM 2008
2008Carrier Response • Demand & Utilization Levels High Levels Still High. • Rate Increases Sought. • Vessels Re-Deployed • New Vessel Sharing Arrangements • “Slow Steaming” Source: TPM 2008
2009Economic Downturn • Inventories Slashed • Decreased Demand • Excess Capacity • Rates Slashed In Most Lanes • Top 10 Carriers Reported Losses of $11 Billion
2010Rate Negotiations • Revenue Recovery Above Customer Relations • Carriers Uniquely Unified In Negotiation Strategy • Rate Increases • Capacity Reduced/The Singapore Parking Lot • Increased “Slow Steaming” • Inventory Rebuild • The “New Economics” (Drewry Shipping)
2010/2011“New Economics” • 2010 Rate/Volume Boom In Spite Of, Not Because Of, The Economy. • Housing Market Stalled • Unemployment High • Retail Sales Unexciting • Boom Over? Inventory Rebuild Over • Carriers Return To Profitability (JOC, Nov. 2010) • Spot Rates Moving Down. (Drewry, Nov. 2010)
2011Rate Environment Driving Rates Up Driving Rates Down Weak Macro Economics Early Peak Season End Added Capacity Trans Pac and Asia/Europe Carrier Vessel Order Book New/Niche Players Government Regulation? • Trade Growth • Capacity Management • Carrier Revenue Strategy • Fuel Prices • “New Economics” Can The Carriers Continue To Manage The Supply-Demand Balancing Act??