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. . . DetermineThreatCourses of Action. Define theOperationalEnvironment. Evaluate the Threat. Describe theEnvironment'sEffects. . 2. . 1. . IPB 2. Visualize the 3 x Root Causes by community or specific group depicted in the Overlay from IPB I. Visualize the specific groups that defines
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1. Introduction: Introduce you self. Two one hour blocks of instruction. Go to next slide
LIC Tenets
Political Dominance
Unity of Effort
Adaptability
Legitimacy
Perseverance
Introduction: Introduce you self. Two one hour blocks of instruction. Go to next slide
LIC Tenets
Political Dominance
Unity of Effort
Adaptability
Legitimacy
Perseverance
2. Visualize the specific aspects of the population by demographic in their multiple layers (overlay). Understand how each group communicates (I/O), who the leaders are, cultural factors that effect operations, and potential infrastructure targets.
Visualize the specific aspects of the population by demographic in their multiple layers (overlay). Understand how each group communicates (I/O), who the leaders are, cultural factors that effect operations, and potential infrastructure targets.
5. Bullets 1/ 2: We hear this all the time
in COIN people are the key terrain:
Bullet 3: IO system needs to be well informed
Bullet 4: As the Iraqi government asserts its self, law enforcement TTPs will play a bigger role especially given the cellular nature of our adversaries.
TRANSITION: SINCE PEOPLE ARE KEY TERRAIN WE CAN USE ASCOPE
HELP US UNDERSTAND THE ENVIRONMENT BETTER.
AREABullets 1/ 2: We hear this all the time
in COIN people are the key terrain:
Bullet 3: IO system needs to be well informed
Bullet 4: As the Iraqi government asserts its self, law enforcement TTPs will play a bigger role especially given the cellular nature of our adversaries.
TRANSITION: SINCE PEOPLE ARE KEY TERRAIN WE CAN USE ASCOPE
HELP US UNDERSTAND THE ENVIRONMENT BETTER.
AREA
6. Bullets 1/ 2: We hear this all the time
in COIN people are the key terrain:
Bullet 3: IO system needs to be well informed
Bullet 4: As the Iraqi government asserts its self, law enforcement TTPs will play a bigger role especially given the cellular nature of our adversaries.
TRANSITION: SINCE PEOPLE ARE KEY TERRAIN WE CAN USE ASCOPE
HELP US UNDERSTAND THE ENVIRONMENT BETTER.
AREABullets 1/ 2: We hear this all the time
in COIN people are the key terrain:
Bullet 3: IO system needs to be well informed
Bullet 4: As the Iraqi government asserts its self, law enforcement TTPs will play a bigger role especially given the cellular nature of our adversaries.
TRANSITION: SINCE PEOPLE ARE KEY TERRAIN WE CAN USE ASCOPE
HELP US UNDERSTAND THE ENVIRONMENT BETTER.
AREA
10. Vulnerable population. For whatever the reasons social, political, or
economic the population is generally open to change. The insurgents will offer hope
for change and exploit dissatisfaction with the current government.
Leadership available for direction. A vulnerable population alone will
not support an insurgent movement. There must be a leadership element that
can direct the frustrations of a dissatisfied populace along the lines delineated
by the overall insurgent strategy.
3) Lack of government control. Lack of government control may be real or
perceived. The greater the control the government has over the situation, the
less likely are the chances for insurgent success The opposite is also true: the
less control the government has, the greater is the chance for insurgent success
Popular support. Support can be passive or active. It is not necessary that the entire population actively support an insurgency, but the majority of the population must passively support it.
Unity of effort. The overall thrust of an insurgent movement must provide a strength of unity that dedicates those involved to achieving the same goal.
Will to resist. It is not enough for the population to resist their government passively; at least a portion must be willing to resist actively.
Leadership. The activities and effort of the insurgent movement must be properly directed through the exercise of effective leadership.
Discipline. The aspect of the movement must be strongly maintained to ensure security and obedience.
Vulnerable population. For whatever the reasons social, political, or
economic the population is generally open to change. The insurgents will offer hope
for change and exploit dissatisfaction with the current government.
Leadership available for direction. A vulnerable population alone will
not support an insurgent movement. There must be a leadership element that
can direct the frustrations of a dissatisfied populace along the lines delineated
by the overall insurgent strategy.
3) Lack of government control. Lack of government control may be real or
perceived. The greater the control the government has over the situation, the
less likely are the chances for insurgent success The opposite is also true: the
less control the government has, the greater is the chance for insurgent success
Popular support. Support can be passive or active. It is not necessary that the entire population actively support an insurgency, but the majority of the population must passively support it.
Unity of effort. The overall thrust of an insurgent movement must provide a strength of unity that dedicates those involved to achieving the same goal.
Will to resist. It is not enough for the population to resist their government passively; at least a portion must be willing to resist actively.
Leadership. The activities and effort of the insurgent movement must be properly directed through the exercise of effective leadership.
Discipline. The aspect of the movement must be strongly maintained to ensure security and obedience.
11. Insurgents: gain and maintain active and passive support from the population by addressing and/or exploiting the root causes. Example: If the Vulnerability is lack of jobs the insurgents can bribe and pay for support; if the Government is ineffective in providing security and rule of law the insurgents can kill, kidnap, and threaten the population to maintain support.
Population: Root Causes are vacuums that predate the insurgency and Prerequisites and lay markers or paths for insurgents and counterinsurgents to fill this vacuum. Example of Root Causes predating the Prerequisites: Lack of Leadership predate the insurgents Leadership for Direction
Counterinsurgents: use the root causes to identify where the insurgents are (even if no activity) such as safehouses, underground elements, leaders, caches, smuggling routes, transfer stations for foreign fighters and resources. Root causes mark locations where insurgents may (are able to) migrate or form anticipate and cover the other holes before the mole is whacked, where to prioritize resources, and site selection for combat outposts.Insurgents: gain and maintain active and passive support from the population by addressing and/or exploiting the root causes. Example: If the Vulnerability is lack of jobs the insurgents can bribe and pay for support; if the Government is ineffective in providing security and rule of law the insurgents can kill, kidnap, and threaten the population to maintain support.
Population: Root Causes are vacuums that predate the insurgency and Prerequisites and lay markers or paths for insurgents and counterinsurgents to fill this vacuum. Example of Root Causes predating the Prerequisites: Lack of Leadership predate the insurgents Leadership for Direction
Counterinsurgents: use the root causes to identify where the insurgents are (even if no activity) such as safehouses, underground elements, leaders, caches, smuggling routes, transfer stations for foreign fighters and resources. Root causes mark locations where insurgents may (are able to) migrate or form anticipate and cover the other holes before the mole is whacked, where to prioritize resources, and site selection for combat outposts.
12. Vulnerable population. For whatever the reasons social, political, or
economic the population is generally open to change. The insurgents will offer hope
for change and exploit dissatisfaction with the current government.
Leadership available for direction. A vulnerable population alone will
not support an insurgent movement. There must be a leadership element that
can direct the frustrations of a dissatisfied populace along the lines delineated
by the overall insurgent strategy.
3) Lack of government control. Lack of government control may be real or
perceived. The greater the control the government has over the situation, the
less likely are the chances for insurgent success The opposite is also true: the
less control the government has, the greater is the chance for insurgent success
Popular support. Support can be passive or active. It is not necessary that the entire population actively support an insurgency, but the majority of the population must passively support it.
Unity of effort. The overall thrust of an insurgent movement must provide a strength of unity that dedicates those involved to achieving the same goal.
Will to resist. It is not enough for the population to resist their government passively; at least a portion must be willing to resist actively.
Leadership. The activities and effort of the insurgent movement must be properly directed through the exercise of effective leadership.
Discipline. The aspect of the movement must be strongly maintained to ensure security and obedience.
Vulnerable population. For whatever the reasons social, political, or
economic the population is generally open to change. The insurgents will offer hope
for change and exploit dissatisfaction with the current government.
Leadership available for direction. A vulnerable population alone will
not support an insurgent movement. There must be a leadership element that
can direct the frustrations of a dissatisfied populace along the lines delineated
by the overall insurgent strategy.
3) Lack of government control. Lack of government control may be real or
perceived. The greater the control the government has over the situation, the
less likely are the chances for insurgent success The opposite is also true: the
less control the government has, the greater is the chance for insurgent success
Popular support. Support can be passive or active. It is not necessary that the entire population actively support an insurgency, but the majority of the population must passively support it.
Unity of effort. The overall thrust of an insurgent movement must provide a strength of unity that dedicates those involved to achieving the same goal.
Will to resist. It is not enough for the population to resist their government passively; at least a portion must be willing to resist actively.
Leadership. The activities and effort of the insurgent movement must be properly directed through the exercise of effective leadership.
Discipline. The aspect of the movement must be strongly maintained to ensure security and obedience.
13. Vulnerable population. For whatever the reasons social, political, or
economic the population is generally open to change. The insurgents will offer hope
for change and exploit dissatisfaction with the current government.
Leadership available for direction. A vulnerable population alone will
not support an insurgent movement. There must be a leadership element that
can direct the frustrations of a dissatisfied populace along the lines delineated
by the overall insurgent strategy.
3) Lack of government control. Lack of government control may be real or
perceived. The greater the control the government has over the situation, the
less likely are the chances for insurgent success The opposite is also true: the
less control the government has, the greater is the chance for insurgent success
Popular support. Support can be passive or active. It is not necessary that the entire population actively support an insurgency, but the majority of the population must passively support it.
Unity of effort. The overall thrust of an insurgent movement must provide a strength of unity that dedicates those involved to achieving the same goal.
Will to resist. It is not enough for the population to resist their government passively; at least a portion must be willing to resist actively.
Leadership. The activities and effort of the insurgent movement must be properly directed through the exercise of effective leadership.
Discipline. The aspect of the movement must be strongly maintained to ensure security and obedience.
Vulnerable population. For whatever the reasons social, political, or
economic the population is generally open to change. The insurgents will offer hope
for change and exploit dissatisfaction with the current government.
Leadership available for direction. A vulnerable population alone will
not support an insurgent movement. There must be a leadership element that
can direct the frustrations of a dissatisfied populace along the lines delineated
by the overall insurgent strategy.
3) Lack of government control. Lack of government control may be real or
perceived. The greater the control the government has over the situation, the
less likely are the chances for insurgent success The opposite is also true: the
less control the government has, the greater is the chance for insurgent success
Popular support. Support can be passive or active. It is not necessary that the entire population actively support an insurgency, but the majority of the population must passively support it.
Unity of effort. The overall thrust of an insurgent movement must provide a strength of unity that dedicates those involved to achieving the same goal.
Will to resist. It is not enough for the population to resist their government passively; at least a portion must be willing to resist actively.
Leadership. The activities and effort of the insurgent movement must be properly directed through the exercise of effective leadership.
Discipline. The aspect of the movement must be strongly maintained to ensure security and obedience.
14. Point 1: Planning at the tactical level in counterinsurgency operations requires a far greater analysis of civil considerations than in conventional operations.
Point 2: We will discuss ASCOPE, but we wont teach a class on it. Rather, point out the reference that details ASCOPE (NEW coin) and we will review the aspects of it to remind everyone of the power of this analytical tool when applied to COIN planning.
FM 3-07.22 2-27 counterinsurgency operations see also FM 6-0 appendix B
Civil considerations comprise six characteristics. Expressed in memory aid. ASOPE
In this OAKOC (define) the civilians are the key terrain
Observation///fields of fire
Avenenues of approach
Key terrain
Obstacles
Cover & concealment
TYPES of Intel:
Humint
Imint
Sigint
Masint
ISR
TRANSITION:Point 1: Planning at the tactical level in counterinsurgency operations requires a far greater analysis of civil considerations than in conventional operations.
Point 2: We will discuss ASCOPE, but we wont teach a class on it. Rather, point out the reference that details ASCOPE (NEW coin) and we will review the aspects of it to remind everyone of the power of this analytical tool when applied to COIN planning.
FM 3-07.22 2-27 counterinsurgency operations see also FM 6-0 appendix B
Civil considerations comprise six characteristics. Expressed in memory aid. ASOPE
In this OAKOC (define) the civilians are the key terrain
Observation///fields of fire
Avenenues of approach
Key terrain
Obstacles
Cover & concealment
TYPES of Intel:
Humint
Imint
Sigint
Masint
ISR
TRANSITION:
15. Vulnerable population. For whatever the reasons social, political, or
economic the population is generally open to change. The insurgents will offer hope
for change and exploit dissatisfaction with the current government.
Leadership available for direction. A vulnerable population alone will
not support an insurgent movement. There must be a leadership element that
can direct the frustrations of a dissatisfied populace along the lines delineated
by the overall insurgent strategy.
3) Lack of government control. Lack of government control may be real or
perceived. The greater the control the government has over the situation, the
less likely are the chances for insurgent success The opposite is also true: the
less control the government has, the greater is the chance for insurgent success
Popular support. Support can be passive or active. It is not necessary that the entire population actively support an insurgency, but the majority of the population must passively support it.
Unity of effort. The overall thrust of an insurgent movement must provide a strength of unity that dedicates those involved to achieving the same goal.
Will to resist. It is not enough for the population to resist their government passively; at least a portion must be willing to resist actively.
Leadership. The activities and effort of the insurgent movement must be properly directed through the exercise of effective leadership.
Discipline. The aspect of the movement must be strongly maintained to ensure security and obedience.
Vulnerable population. For whatever the reasons social, political, or
economic the population is generally open to change. The insurgents will offer hope
for change and exploit dissatisfaction with the current government.
Leadership available for direction. A vulnerable population alone will
not support an insurgent movement. There must be a leadership element that
can direct the frustrations of a dissatisfied populace along the lines delineated
by the overall insurgent strategy.
3) Lack of government control. Lack of government control may be real or
perceived. The greater the control the government has over the situation, the
less likely are the chances for insurgent success The opposite is also true: the
less control the government has, the greater is the chance for insurgent success
Popular support. Support can be passive or active. It is not necessary that the entire population actively support an insurgency, but the majority of the population must passively support it.
Unity of effort. The overall thrust of an insurgent movement must provide a strength of unity that dedicates those involved to achieving the same goal.
Will to resist. It is not enough for the population to resist their government passively; at least a portion must be willing to resist actively.
Leadership. The activities and effort of the insurgent movement must be properly directed through the exercise of effective leadership.
Discipline. The aspect of the movement must be strongly maintained to ensure security and obedience.
16. Vulnerable population. For whatever the reasons social, political, or
economic the population is generally open to change. The insurgents will offer hope
for change and exploit dissatisfaction with the current government.
Leadership available for direction. A vulnerable population alone will
not support an insurgent movement. There must be a leadership element that
can direct the frustrations of a dissatisfied populace along the lines delineated
by the overall insurgent strategy.
3) Lack of government control. Lack of government control may be real or
perceived. The greater the control the government has over the situation, the
less likely are the chances for insurgent success The opposite is also true: the
less control the government has, the greater is the chance for insurgent success
Popular support. Support can be passive or active. It is not necessary that the entire population actively support an insurgency, but the majority of the population must passively support it.
Unity of effort. The overall thrust of an insurgent movement must provide a strength of unity that dedicates those involved to achieving the same goal.
Will to resist. It is not enough for the population to resist their government passively; at least a portion must be willing to resist actively.
Leadership. The activities and effort of the insurgent movement must be properly directed through the exercise of effective leadership.
Discipline. The aspect of the movement must be strongly maintained to ensure security and obedience.
Vulnerable population. For whatever the reasons social, political, or
economic the population is generally open to change. The insurgents will offer hope
for change and exploit dissatisfaction with the current government.
Leadership available for direction. A vulnerable population alone will
not support an insurgent movement. There must be a leadership element that
can direct the frustrations of a dissatisfied populace along the lines delineated
by the overall insurgent strategy.
3) Lack of government control. Lack of government control may be real or
perceived. The greater the control the government has over the situation, the
less likely are the chances for insurgent success The opposite is also true: the
less control the government has, the greater is the chance for insurgent success
Popular support. Support can be passive or active. It is not necessary that the entire population actively support an insurgency, but the majority of the population must passively support it.
Unity of effort. The overall thrust of an insurgent movement must provide a strength of unity that dedicates those involved to achieving the same goal.
Will to resist. It is not enough for the population to resist their government passively; at least a portion must be willing to resist actively.
Leadership. The activities and effort of the insurgent movement must be properly directed through the exercise of effective leadership.
Discipline. The aspect of the movement must be strongly maintained to ensure security and obedience.
17. Vulnerable population. For whatever the reasons social, political, or
economic the population is generally open to change. The insurgents will offer hope
for change and exploit dissatisfaction with the current government.
Leadership available for direction. A vulnerable population alone will
not support an insurgent movement. There must be a leadership element that
can direct the frustrations of a dissatisfied populace along the lines delineated
by the overall insurgent strategy.
3) Lack of government control. Lack of government control may be real or
perceived. The greater the control the government has over the situation, the
less likely are the chances for insurgent success The opposite is also true: the
less control the government has, the greater is the chance for insurgent success
Popular support. Support can be passive or active. It is not necessary that the entire population actively support an insurgency, but the majority of the population must passively support it.
Unity of effort. The overall thrust of an insurgent movement must provide a strength of unity that dedicates those involved to achieving the same goal.
Will to resist. It is not enough for the population to resist their government passively; at least a portion must be willing to resist actively.
Leadership. The activities and effort of the insurgent movement must be properly directed through the exercise of effective leadership.
Discipline. The aspect of the movement must be strongly maintained to ensure security and obedience.
Vulnerable population. For whatever the reasons social, political, or
economic the population is generally open to change. The insurgents will offer hope
for change and exploit dissatisfaction with the current government.
Leadership available for direction. A vulnerable population alone will
not support an insurgent movement. There must be a leadership element that
can direct the frustrations of a dissatisfied populace along the lines delineated
by the overall insurgent strategy.
3) Lack of government control. Lack of government control may be real or
perceived. The greater the control the government has over the situation, the
less likely are the chances for insurgent success The opposite is also true: the
less control the government has, the greater is the chance for insurgent success
Popular support. Support can be passive or active. It is not necessary that the entire population actively support an insurgency, but the majority of the population must passively support it.
Unity of effort. The overall thrust of an insurgent movement must provide a strength of unity that dedicates those involved to achieving the same goal.
Will to resist. It is not enough for the population to resist their government passively; at least a portion must be willing to resist actively.
Leadership. The activities and effort of the insurgent movement must be properly directed through the exercise of effective leadership.
Discipline. The aspect of the movement must be strongly maintained to ensure security and obedience.
18. Vulnerable population. For whatever the reasons social, political, or
economic the population is generally open to change. The insurgents will offer hope
for change and exploit dissatisfaction with the current government.
Leadership available for direction. A vulnerable population alone will
not support an insurgent movement. There must be a leadership element that
can direct the frustrations of a dissatisfied populace along the lines delineated
by the overall insurgent strategy.
3) Lack of government control. Lack of government control may be real or
perceived. The greater the control the government has over the situation, the
less likely are the chances for insurgent success The opposite is also true: the
less control the government has, the greater is the chance for insurgent success
Popular support. Support can be passive or active. It is not necessary that the entire population actively support an insurgency, but the majority of the population must passively support it.
Unity of effort. The overall thrust of an insurgent movement must provide a strength of unity that dedicates those involved to achieving the same goal.
Will to resist. It is not enough for the population to resist their government passively; at least a portion must be willing to resist actively.
Leadership. The activities and effort of the insurgent movement must be properly directed through the exercise of effective leadership.
Discipline. The aspect of the movement must be strongly maintained to ensure security and obedience.
Vulnerable population. For whatever the reasons social, political, or
economic the population is generally open to change. The insurgents will offer hope
for change and exploit dissatisfaction with the current government.
Leadership available for direction. A vulnerable population alone will
not support an insurgent movement. There must be a leadership element that
can direct the frustrations of a dissatisfied populace along the lines delineated
by the overall insurgent strategy.
3) Lack of government control. Lack of government control may be real or
perceived. The greater the control the government has over the situation, the
less likely are the chances for insurgent success The opposite is also true: the
less control the government has, the greater is the chance for insurgent success
Popular support. Support can be passive or active. It is not necessary that the entire population actively support an insurgency, but the majority of the population must passively support it.
Unity of effort. The overall thrust of an insurgent movement must provide a strength of unity that dedicates those involved to achieving the same goal.
Will to resist. It is not enough for the population to resist their government passively; at least a portion must be willing to resist actively.
Leadership. The activities and effort of the insurgent movement must be properly directed through the exercise of effective leadership.
Discipline. The aspect of the movement must be strongly maintained to ensure security and obedience.
20. "We do even more than what the government should do," said Fartoosi, 21, as he recalled the eight grueling hours after a barrage of car bombs, mortars and missiles killed more than 200 people in Baghdad's Shiite heartland.
The militiamen were heroes that day, Sadr City residents said in interviews. They did everything that Iraq's fragile unity government did not, or could not, do. In the days since, their actions have boosted Sadr's popularity and emboldened him. "We do even more than what the government should do," said Fartoosi, 21, as he recalled the eight grueling hours after a barrage of car bombs, mortars and missiles killed more than 200 people in Baghdad's Shiite heartland.
The militiamen were heroes that day, Sadr City residents said in interviews. They did everything that Iraq's fragile unity government did not, or could not, do. In the days since, their actions have boosted Sadr's popularity and emboldened him.
39. Questions?
