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1. FY08 GOES-R3 Project Proposal Title Page

1. FY08 GOES-R3 Project Proposal Title Page. Title : Space Weather Risk Reduction for GOES-R including Solar Observing Instruments (SUVI and EUVS), In-situ Instruments (SEISS and MAG) and Data Browse and Retrieval Interface

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1. FY08 GOES-R3 Project Proposal Title Page

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  1. 1. FY08 GOES-R3 Project Proposal Title Page • Title: Space Weather Risk Reduction for GOES-R including Solar Observing Instruments (SUVI and EUVS), In-situ Instruments (SEISS and MAG) and Data Browse and Retrieval Interface • Project Type: Product Development Proposal and Product Improvement Proposal • Status: Renewal (initial year FY08) • Duration: 3 years Level of EffortSupport Source • Lead: • Dr. Steven Hill – SWPC 8% NOAA/SWPC Base • Other Participants: • Dr. Rodney Viereck – SWPC 4% NOAA/SWPC Base • Dr. Howard Singer – SWPC 4% NOAA/SWPC Base • Dr. Terry Onsager – SWPC 4% NOAA/SWPC Base • Dr. Christopher Balch – SWPC 2% NOAA/SWPC Base • Daniel Wilkinson – SWPC 40% GOES R3 • Mary Shouldis – CIRES 25% GOES R3 • Dr. Paul Lotoaniu – CIRES 50% GOES R3 • Dr. Jennifer Gannon – CIRES 25% GOES R3 • Dr. Joshua Rigler – CIRES 50% GOES R3 • Leslie Mayer – CIRES 35% GOES R3 • New Postdoc – CIRES 50% GOES R3

  2. 2. Project Summary (Overview) • GOES Observations • Diverse observations supporting common Space Weather forecast objectives • Requirements similar to GOES NOP, with some changes to better focus on primary customer needs • Risk Reduction Background • Mitigate product development risk areas • Explore new product development candidates • Critical to continue to reduce risks and allow product improvement • Joint effort between SWPC and NGDC (80/20 split) MAG EXIS (EUVS) SEISS EXIS (XRS) SUVI

  3. 2. Project Summary (Observations) • Solar Observing Instruments • Solar UltraViolet Imager (SUVI) – • Use spectral and temporal differencing to parse Solar images into feature types (Flares, Active Regions, Quiet Sun, Coronal Holes, and Coronal Dimmings) • Extreme UltraViolet Sensor (EUVS) • Validate EUVS contractor’s approach to collecting solar EUV irradiance using observations and models to provide the level 1 data (a full EUV spectrum) • Improve on GOES-NOP products from the better GOES R observations. • In-situ Observing Instruments • Plasma and Energetic Particles (SEISS) • Specify the electron radiation at any satellite location in Earth’s magnetosphere • Develop a measure of GOES spacecraft charging • Develop new products that specify the local plasma density and temperature • Magnetometer (MAG) • Specify field values at different locations and in different coordinate systems. • This product will take advantage of the current GOES products by incorporating field models into an SWPC data visualization display system.

  4. 2. Project Summary (Algorithm Readiness Synergy)

  5. 2. Project Summary (Algorithm Readiness Synergy)

  6. 2. Project Summary (Data Browse/Retrieval) • Prototype Data Browse and Retrieval Interface for GOES-R Space Weather Data (NGDC) • Define the essential framework for public access to all GOES-R space weather datasets • Develop a prototype meeting the following goals: • Simplest feasible interface for meeting user needs • Compatibility with external systems • Display and export formats for graphics and data • Inventory summary reports and instrument status logs

  7. 3. Motivation/Justification • High Level Mission Goals Supported • NOAA : Weather and Water, Commerce and Transportation • DOD: Satellite collision avoidance, Space situational awareness • NASA: Satellite collision avoidance, Astronaut safety • General Public Requirements: GPS and satellite navigation, HF communications, Airline Safety • ESDIM: Improve Data Management, Promote Modernization • Forecast Needs Supported • Reduced forecaster workload • Enhanced accuracy and consistency of products • Development of new products • Leveraging of GOES-R, POES/NPOESS and current GOES capabilities to satisfy unmet customer needs • Calibrating and validating existing GOES data and new data from GOES-R • Supporting GOES-R AWG algorithms development

  8. 3. Motivation/JustificationEconomic Impacts of Space Weather • Impacts of space weather have been estimated to be $200 - 400 million/year, with the potential to be much higher1,2 • Benefits of avoiding a space weather-caused large-scale power outage would be measured in lives saved and monetary savings of over $20 billion3 • Polar airline flights that are re-routed due to high radiation and polar communication blackouts can cost the airlines ~$100,000 per incident1 • GOES space weather sensors drive the operational alerts and warnings and provide the situational awareness needed to mitigate impacts to our economic and security infrastructure 1. National Research Council, Space Studies Board, 2007: Earth Science and Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond, National Academies Press 2. Horne, R. B., 2003, Rationale and requirements for a space weather programme, in Space Weather workshop: Looking Towards a European Space Weather Programme, 139-144, ESA, ESTEC 3. Teisberg, T. J., and R. F. Weiher, 2000: Valuation of geomagnetic storm forecasts: An estimate of the net economic benefits of a satellite warning system, J. Pol. Anal. Manage., 19, 329-334.

  9. 4. Methodology (Solar Products) • Extreme Ultraviolet Irradiance (EXIS – EUVS) • Verify GOES 13 EUVS performance and develop products • Evaluate proposed GOES R EUVS observational parameters and identify requirements for models to fill in the unobserved wavelengths. • Compare modeled results with proxy data from research satellites. • Identify customer needs and requirements • Develop and test new products to meet the customer requirements • Automated Solar Image Segmentation Algorithm (SUVI) • Review existing technologies • Develop prototypes • Test and document

  10. 4. Methodology (In Situ Products) • Magnetic Field (MAG) • Evaluate global field models • Implement global field models • Validate and Calibrate GOES Data • Electron radiation product (SEISS) • Test algorithm specifying electron environment at other satellite locations • Optimize algorithm using assumed radial profile of phase space density • Spacecraft charging measurement and plasma density and temperature products (SEISS) • Utilize proxy GOES-R data derived from Los Alamos National Laboratory geosynchronous measurements • Develop and test algorithms to identify spacecraft charging levels using low-energy proton data • Develop and test algorithms to calculate plasma density and temperature, utilizing the estimated spacecraft charging to adjust particle energies

  11. 4. Methodology (Data Browse/Retrieval) • Prototype Data Browse and Retrieval Interface for GOES-R Space Weather Data • Design basic interface flow based on an evaluation of previous design experience and current user feedback • Evaluate latest interface software technology, i.e., AJAX – Asynchronous JavaScript and XML • Evaluate all viable data exports formats and graphical display options • Evaluate CLASS interoperability • Implement basic interface with browse visualization functionality • Begin implementing a hybrid delivery system combining interactive product generation and direct access to prepackaged products and data • Reevaluate and revise as needed

  12. 5. Summary of Previous Results • SXR and EUV Automated Image Segmentation Algorithm (SUVI) • Due to project phasing, the FY06 funded activities have a period of performance from Oct 2007 to Sept 2008 • Focus is on quantitative evaluation and validation of current operational SXI flare location algorithms (GOES 12) and is complimentary to FY07-FY09 SUVI proposed work

  13. 5. Summary of Previous Results (Continued) • EUVS • GOES 13 EUVS (first EUV sensor for GOES) sensor performance has been evaluated, verified, and compared with preflight calibrations and sensor performance predictions • GOES 13 EUVS observations have been calibrated and validated and compared with proxy data

  14. 5. Summary of Previous Results (Continued) • SEISS • Initial capability was developed with prior GOES-R3 funding to extrapolate measurements from one GOES satellite to the locations of other satellites • Density and temperature algorithms are under development for GOES-R AWG • Background studies of radial phase space density profiles have been performed using GOES-11 electron data

  15. 5. Summary of Previous Results (Continued) • MAG • Developed and implemented multiple coordinate transformation algorithms in conjunction with GOES-AWG tasks • Implemented Olson-Pfitzer 1977 global field model

  16. 5. Summary of Previous Results (Continued) Prototype Data Browse and Retrieval Interface for GOES-R Space Weather Data The creation of the prototype will benefit from GOES-R Risk Reduction projects undertaken in 2006 and 2007: Open Archival Information System (OAIS) Reference Model submission agreements Use case requirements New visualization product Concept of Operations for GOES-R Space Weather data 16

  17. 6. Expected Outcomes • Algorithm Theoretical Basis Documents (ATBDs) • If successful, several ATBDs will be created for the GOES-R AWG SWx Application Team • Data Validation • Validation and calibration of GOES magnetometer data • Validated products from GOES 13 EUVS. • Validation of EUVS instrument vendor algorithms for producing level 1 data products • Product Improvements • If successful, improvements in SUVI image segmentation accuracy and efficiency over manual visual interpretation will be demonstrated • Enhanced geomagnetic field specification • Establish the initiation of long-term EUVS data products that will be continued in the GOES-R era. • Magnetometer and SEISS algorithms for magnetosphere specification are anticipated to run operationally at the NWS/SWPC, rather than in the system prime ground system. • User Interface Improvements • Prototype Data Browse and Retrieval Interface for GOES-R Space Weather Data • Extensive understanding of user needs and of various ways to meet those needs

  18. 7. Major Milestones – Solar Imaging (FY08) • Automated Solar Image Segmentation Algorithm • Complete survey and evaluation of existing algorithms/technologies – Ongoing • Select most promising algorithms for prototype development – Delayed to FY09 due to initial funding/staff phasing • Focus is on quantitative evaluation and validation of current operational flare location algorithms - Completed

  19. 7. Major Milestones – X-Ray/EUV Irradiance (FY08) • EUVS • Validate the GOES 13 calibration and level 1 data – Completed • Define initial set of EUV products from GOES 13 – Delayed to FY09 • Determine potential GOES R EUVS Level 2 products - Completed GOES EUV Sensor Performance vs TIMED SEE and SOHO SEM

  20. 7. Major Milestones – Radiation Environment (FY08) • Assemble multiple data sets (GEO, MEO, and LEO) and test electron extrapolation algorithm - Ongoing • Extrapolation algorithm developed and tested at GEO • Performance varies with geomagnetic activity level • Cause of inconsistent performance is being investigated, and dominant sources of error will be addressed (probably variable pitch-angle distributions) • Extrapolation to MEO and LEO will be tested after performance at GEO is improved • Evaluate different techniques (simple sums versus fitting) for calculating distribution function moments (density and temperature) - Ongoing • Simple-sum technique was validated on prescribed Maxwellian input data • Proxy data (Los Alamos National Laboratory GEO satellites) have been used to compare simple-sum moments calculations to Maxwellian fits to data • Simple-sum technique produces better results due to non-Maxwellian features that are often present in the data

  21. 7. Major Milestones – Magnetic Field Environement (FY08) • Implement multiple field model algorithms - Complete • Implemented Dynamic Link Module (DLM) to provide easy access to Tsyganenko GEOPACK Fortran library and related routines. • GEOPACK functions now behave like native IDL procedures. • The IDL module can also compute Tsyganenko field models T96, T01 and the more recent TS04 storm-time model. • These models together will allow extensive validation of the GOES-R magnetometer dataset and be used in specifying field values at multiple spacecraft locations. • Example magnetometer data (blue-line), Olson-Pfitzer 1977 (OP-77) quiet field model implemented as part of the comparison to quiet field algorithm and the Tsyganenko (1989) (t89c) field model output from the GEOPACK DLM.

  22. 7. Major Milestones – Magnetic Field Environement (FY08) • Assemble multiple experimental datasets – Ongoing • Multiple magnetometer datasets from different GOES spacecraft will serve as proxy required for both Risk Reduction and Algorithm Preparedness – Complete • Multiple datasets from the five THEMIS spacecraft and the ACE spacecraft - Ongoing • The THEMIS data usage includes improving specification of field values at multiple locations by validating observations and field model outputs. • The ACE dataset is needed as inputs to multiple field models. THEMIS and GOES-10, 11 and 12 spacecraft are shown. Multiple locations both in local time and space will be important for validating improved specifications of field values.

  23. 7. Major Milestones - Data Browse/Retrieval (FY08) Prototype Data Browse and Retrieval Interface for GOES-R Space Weather Data Determine viable data format, delivery and visualization options - Complete Implement basic interface for real-time and retrospective data services - Complete Five different software packages for developing Rich Internet Applications (RIA) have been acquired and the process of evaluating them for their suitability with regard to the prototype interface has begun. The efforts this summer of Hollings Scholar Ethan Peck, Cornell Univ., are being leveraged too create a new data visualization browse product for the POES energetic particle data.  This product will be used as a proxy for GOES-R visualization products to be delivered through the Data Browse and Retrieval Interface for GOES-R Space Weather Data. The full collection of similar products will represent a large volume of images and movies that must be made available to the user in a simple way which is a primary goal of the GOES-R prototype interface. 23

  24. 7. Major Milestones (Continued) FY09 SUVI Develop prototype algorithms EUVS Validate GOES 13 products Acquisition of GOES R Level 1 model from instrument vendor SEISS Investigate improvements to assumed parameters in the electron extrapolation algorithm and optimize algorithm performance Finalize density and temperature algorithms and produce ATBDs MAG Evaluate different models Facilitate validation and calibration GOES data Evaluate alternatives for Level-2 algorithms Prototype Data Browse and Retrieval Interface for GOES-R Space Weather Data Ingest all available GOES-13 data as proxy for GOES-R. Generate prepackaged products Begin implementing a hybrid interface combining interactive product generation and direct access to prepackaged products and data 24

  25. 7. Major Milestones (Continued) • FY10 • SUVI • Complete testing and documentation of algorithms for delivery to AWG • EUVS • Test and validate GOES R Level 1 data processing model • Test and evaluate GOES R EUVS Level 2 products • SEISS • Finalize electron algorithm and produce ATBD • MAG • Produce ATBD • Integrate models into magnetometer data visualization system • Prototype Data Browse and Retrieval Interface for GOES-R Space Weather Data • Evaluate CLASS interoperability • Implement data visualization section of the interface • Integrate all system features • Revaluate and revise system as needed

  26. 8. Funding Profile (K) Summary of leveraged funding NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SWPC Base funding supports SWPC civil servant scientists contributing to the GOES R Algorithm Readiness effort and SWx instrument procurement NOAA/NESDIS/NGDC will support this project through site infrastructure, IT support, and administrative overheads SWPC budget is escalated by 5% each year (based on original funding of 400K in FY06). 26

  27. 9. Expected Purchase Items (SWPC) • FY08 • (305K): Grant CIRES for 6 individuals, 2.6 equivalent people from May 08 to Apr 09 • EXIS scientist/developers at 75% • SUVI scientist/developer at 50% • MAG scientist/developers at 50% • SEISS scientist/developers at 60% • Project Manager/Engineer at 25% • (85K): SWPC Overhead for facilities support from May 08 to Apr 09 • Rent, network support, FED travel, etc. • FY09 • (320K): Grant CIRES for 6 individuals, 2.4 equivalent people from May 09 to Apr 10 • EXIS scientist/developers at 50% • SUVI scientist/developer at 50% • MAG scientist/developers at 50% • SEISS scientist/developers at 60% • Project Manager/Engineer at 25% • (89K): SWPC Overhead for facilities support from May 09 to Apr 10 • Rent, network support, FED travel, etc. • FY10 • (364K): Grant CIRES for 6 individuals, 2.6 equivalent people from May 10 to Apr 11 • EXIS scientist/developers at 75% • SUVI scientist/developer at 50% • MAG scientist/developers at 50% • SEISS scientist/developers at 60% • Project Manager/Engineer at 25% • (102K): SWPC Overhead for facilities support from May 10 to Apr 11 • Rent, network support, FED travel, etc.

  28. 9. Expected Purchase Items (NGDC) FY07 (55K): NGDC staff support FY08 (65K): NGDC staff support FY09 (97K): NGDC staff support FY10 (136K): NGDC staff support 28

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