OPG Meeting June 29, 2006

1. OPG MeetingJune 29, 2006 Young-Jin Park, Rob McLaren and Eric Sykes Department of Earth Sciences Jon Sykes Department of Civil Engineering

2. Agenda • GS16 project update • QA/QC work plan for UofW • Bruce DGR conceptual model

3. GS16 Project Update Black type = paragraphs from WPD Blue type = June 27 status of work Detailed Work Description: The proposed work program has three elements: • FRAC3DVS Code Improvements; • Sub-regional Shield Flow System Case Study; and • Visualisation Methods - Application of VRL Technology. These work program elements are to be coordinated within a DGRTP Task Force on Shield Groundwater Flow System Characterisation and Simulation. The work program elements are described below:

4. Code Improvements - FRAC3DVS The improvements to FRAC3DVS that are to be included in the proposed work program include: • inclusion and verification of temperature change of state; in this stage of the work the impact on pressure of the volume change of the pore fluid on freezing will be neglected; • work being completed by Stefano, will be documented in deliverable 13D • pre-processing approach for inclusion and improved ‘non-orthogonal’ geometric realisation of probabilistic 3-dimensional DFN models; • Work to be completed; Rob will add necessary changes to NP and verify implementation in Frac3DVS; Stefano will expand his pre-processor to allow for non-orthogonal fractures; work to be reported in 13D • continued development/refinement of approaches to improve computational efficiency (ex: multi-grid algorithms, sub-time stepping functions, domain decomposition strategies to take advantage of parallel computing infrastructure); • work is on-going; Dua has completed multi-grid algorithm, mesh development algorithms to take advantage of multi-grids need to be developed; Young-Jin has investigated parallelization of Frac3DVS; Rob and Young-Jin lead the code improvements work; results will be documented in 13D • extension of time tracking strategies from steady-state to transient simulations; • This work is an extension of that completed by Fabien; Jon and Ed will undertake research on algorithms to expand the life expectancy algorithm to transient flow (possibilities include the adjoint method for coupled flow, density and transport); we will likely need an RA for implementation • development of thermo-mechanical coupling to address transient glacier boundary conditions (stress and temperature). • Stefano will implement the 1-D approach following Neuzil in his temperature algorithm; Dua will be involved in the formulation of a more rigorous THM approach The University of Waterloo team and HydroGeoLogic Limited will collaborate closely in the development and enhancement of FRAC3DVS. The QA/QC for code improvements will be the primary responsibility of the University of Waterloo. Annual summary reports (technical memorandum) detailing the status of improvements made to FRAC3DVS will be provided in 2005 and 2006.

5. Sub-regional Shield Flow System Case Study This work program will be conducted as part of the Task Force on Shield Groundwater Flow System Characterisation and Simulation. As a basis for all simulations, the sub-regional flow domain described by Sykes et al. (2004) will be used. Specific objectives for this Case Study include: • demonstrate influence of alternative and equally probably DFN models (Site 2a version) on estimation of flow system Darcy fluxes, groundwater residence times and flow paths at depths to 1500 m; • work was completed by Stefano and Young-Jin; reported at Amigo, and 2006 Geoscience workshop • demonstrate influence of spatially variable and correlated permeability fields in fracture and matrix continua on predicted Darcy fluxes, groundwater residence times and flow paths at depths to 1500 m; • work was completed by Stefano and Young-Jin; reported at Amigo, and 2006 Geoscience workshop • demonstrate the influence of fresh-saline-brine groundwater distributions on the evolution of groundwater with respect to TDS concentrations, Darcy fluxes, groundwater residence times and flow paths; and • work has been initiated; Stefano and Young-Jin have developed a work plan that will involve SWIFT and Frac3DVS comparisons; this issue will be resolved and addressed in the 14D deliverable • demonstrate the influence of coupled climate/surface boundary conditions on groundwater flow system evolution and dynamics (GSM realization nn2008). • Stefano has completed an initial run that was included in our presentation at Amigo and the 2006 Geoscience workshop; the implementation of the thermal algorithm will be followed by simulations using the sub-regional domain; work will be completed and documented in 13D or 14D (decision to be made) • demonstrate the role of dimensionality (2D vs 3D) on the results of simulations in the complex, sub-regional flow domain. • As of June 27, there is no lead for this task; the analyses are very straight forward and can be completed by an RA supervised by Jon and Ed; documentation will be included in 14D

6. Continued As part of this work program, quarterly Task Force progress meetings will normally be held in Waterloo and/or Toronto. Progress/results in the Sub-regional Shield Flow System Case Study will be documented in a series of DGRTP reports summarizing 2005 activities and in a final DGRTP 1200-series program report in 2006. These reports will summarize and illustrate the increased level of understanding regarding Shield flow system characteristics and the nature of responses to long-term climate changes that contribute to demonstrating the geoscientific case for deep repository safety. These reports will also summarize the unique numerical tools and methodologies that have been developed to meet the work program objectives. As a special case of the Sub-regional Flow System Case Study, flow modelling in support of OPG’s participation in the international DECOVALEX program (GS01) will be undertaken. As part of GS01, the fracture zone model developed by Srivastava (2002) and modelled by Sykes et al. (2004) was systematically simplified from a ~540 fracture zone network to one consisting of ~ 20 fracture zones. This simplification was required for the purpose of undertaking coupled thermal-hydraulic-mechanical (THM) modelling using the MOTIF code. To support this simplification process, the reduced fracture zone network will be modelled in FRAC3DVS using the orthogonally fracture face representation, hydraulic conductivity assignments and boundary conditions as in Sykes et al. (2004) for the purpose of obtaining hydraulic head and Darcy velocity distributions in the fracture and matrix continua. The flow modelling results for the reduced fracture zone network will be compared to those from the full network provided by Sykes et al. (2004) and forwarded to OPG.This work was completed by Stefano.

7. Visualisation - Sub-regional Flow System Modelling Results The purpose of this element of the work program is to support a demonstration of the application of Virtual Reality (VR) Technology for site specific, Shield flow system interpretation and analysis at the 2005 NEA-AMIGO Workshop, which is scheduled for September 20-22 in Toronto. The VR demonstration will be developed by MIRARCO located at Laurentian University in Sudbury. With respect to geoscience, scientific visualization and VR technology provide an effective site characterisation tool for interpretation and communication of geoscientific information of complex 3-dimensional geometry. This technology is particularly useful for the integration of multi-disciplinary data sets necessary to establish spatial relationships and coincidence. Supporting activities will include: • coordination with MIRARCO on the preparation of Sub-regional modelling grid meshes, discrete fracture network models and parameter input data sets for transfer into Gocad and the VR environ; • work completed by Stefano and Young-Jin; ongoing as required • coordinate with MIRARCO the transfer of predictive Sub-regional modelling results, to illustrate aspects of flow system evolution and groundwater flow system properties or characteristics relevant to repository siting and/or long-term safety; • work completed by Stefano and Young-Jin; ongoing as required • participation in a 2-day workshop at MIRARCO’s Virtual Reality Theatre in Sudbury for the purpose of reviewing the Gocad-based representations of sub-regional modelling results ; and • work completed by Stefano and Young-Jin; ongoing as required • participation in the AMIGO workshop, presentation of Sub-regional modelling strategies and results during the OPG session on September 20th (to be developed in cooperation with OPG and other members of the Task Force on Shield Groundwater Flow System Characterisation and Simulation), and leading the Sub-regional modelling session during the SciViz demonstration on the evening of September 21. • work completed by Stefano and Young-Jin; ongoing as required

8. QA/QC work plan for UofW

9. Bruce DGR Conceptual Model

10. StratigraphicColumn Repository Horizon

11. Sub-Regional Analysis • Spatial domain: approximately 22 km by 20 km, surface to Precambrian • Transient analysis: initial conditions include pressure and salinity for all layers • Sanford model will be used to define sub-features such as distribution of Cambrian, distribution of salt, pinnacle reefs, flow in fractures • Uncertainty analysis related to conceptual model and parameters • Lake Huron boundary conditions ?

12. Sub-Regional Analysis • Scale of wells will require soft data to define features of Sanford conceptual model • Sensitivity of flow and transport in Ordovician limestone to geometry and parameters of assumed features must be investigated. Examples • pinnacle reefs • dolomitized limestone • presence of salt and Cambrian • Bruce megablock fractures: orientation and properties

13. Wells Drilled to Precambrian

14. B Salt (red = present)

15. Wells to Cambrian and Precambrian

16. Wells to Cobourg and Precambrian

17. Rockworks Characterization

18. Rockworks Characterization

19. Rockworks – 1st Order Polynomial

20. Lake Elevations

21. Prescribed zero pressure at elevation of water table; topographically controlled Prescribed pressure and density; vary No-flow: align with orientation of Sanford fracture Prescribed hydrostatic pressure corresponding to Lake Huron water level; varying density Boundary Conditions

22. DEM

23. Bathymetry

24. TIN for Lake Huron

25. Cases • 1 gradient in units below Queenston/Georgian Bay/Blue Mtn shale to Lake Huron: 196 m at east, 176 at west • 2 gradient in units below shale away from Lake Huron: 176 m at west, 170 m at east (corresponds to gradient between Bruce site and Lake Ontario at Hamilton) • Initial hydraulic properties from Golder (2003)

26. Case 1

27. Case 1

28. Case 1

29. Case 1

30. Case 2

31. Case 2

32. Case 2

33. Case 2

34. What is next? • Add TDS to model layers as initial condition • Revise Diriclet boundary conditions to appropriate pressure and TDS • Refine geologic model for layers • Generate “issues” list • Develop regional conceptual model and issues to be resolved with model • Develop calibration data set: geochemistry, hydraulic (?)