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China presentation

China presentation. Huang Fei National center for TB control and prevention, China. Questions. Learn about direct and indirect methods to estimate TB incidence Learn about the methods used by WHO to estimate TB incidence in China Assess whether current methods are appropriate for China

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China presentation

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  1. China presentation Huang Fei National center for TB control and prevention, China

  2. Questions • Learn about direct and indirect methods to estimate TB incidence • Learn about the methods used by WHO to estimate TB incidence in China • Assess whether current methods are appropriate for China • Determine the methods that can be used to estimate province-specific incidences

  3. Estimation methods using prevalence survey data • WHO used 1990 ARI data to estimate current TB incidence • Prevalence method can be used to estimate province-specific incidence in China • The parameters associated with the current estimate of average duration of illness, such as proportion of type of treatment and the duration of illness, maybe not correct • However, there is insufficient data to determine the actual duration of illness (and their associated parameters)

  4. Estimation method using notification data • Can be used to estimate incidence in Beijing, Shanghai and Tianjin (municipalities with relatively small, urban population and good reporting system) • Analysis of notification data can help determine remaining gap in notification; another way to check the province-specific estimates using prevalence method. • Large variation in case-finding effort at local level may indicate remaining gap in case-finding

  5. Next step • To calculate province-specific incidence, we need the following: • Analyze existing data (prevalence survey in 1979,1984/85,1990, 2000) to estimate prevalence of each provinces • Estimate the average duration of illness for each province (including associated parameters) • Analyze notification data to determine variation in programme/case-finding effort between provinces. Use information to compare with estimates of incidence using prevalence method. • Hold additional discussions with other experts in China

  6. Thank you

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