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China presentation

Explore direct and indirect methods for estimating TB incidence in China, assess existing methodologies, and propose province-specific estimation approaches using prevalence and notification data. Collaborate with experts to enhance accuracy.

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China presentation

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  1. China presentation Huang Fei National center for TB control and prevention, China

  2. Questions • Learn about direct and indirect methods to estimate TB incidence • Learn about the methods used by WHO to estimate TB incidence in China • Assess whether current methods are appropriate for China • Determine the methods that can be used to estimate province-specific incidences

  3. Estimation methods using prevalence survey data • WHO used 1990 ARI data to estimate current TB incidence • Prevalence method can be used to estimate province-specific incidence in China • The parameters associated with the current estimate of average duration of illness, such as proportion of type of treatment and the duration of illness, maybe not correct • However, there is insufficient data to determine the actual duration of illness (and their associated parameters)

  4. Estimation method using notification data • Can be used to estimate incidence in Beijing, Shanghai and Tianjin (municipalities with relatively small, urban population and good reporting system) • Analysis of notification data can help determine remaining gap in notification; another way to check the province-specific estimates using prevalence method. • Large variation in case-finding effort at local level may indicate remaining gap in case-finding

  5. Next step • To calculate province-specific incidence, we need the following: • Analyze existing data (prevalence survey in 1979,1984/85,1990, 2000) to estimate prevalence of each provinces • Estimate the average duration of illness for each province (including associated parameters) • Analyze notification data to determine variation in programme/case-finding effort between provinces. Use information to compare with estimates of incidence using prevalence method. • Hold additional discussions with other experts in China

  6. Thank you

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