Daniel Sperling Professor and Director Institute of Transportation Studies (ITS-Davis) University of California, Davis a

1. States Leading the Way With PEVs Daniel Sperling Professor and Director Institute of Transportation Studies (ITS-Davis) University of California, Davis and Board Member, California Air Resources Board CEIP Washington, DC 24 September 2012

2. In our report, we say… “States and localities, which have generally advanced PEV commercialization more directly and effectively than has Washington, will likely be the source of the most durable solutions.”

3. Huge Market Uncertainty • Consumers: How will they value all-electric range, limited range, zero emissions, quietness? • Technology: How fast will battery costs drop? • Manufacturers: How will automakers value PEVs? • Policy?? Mainstream consumers Valley of death Early adopters Development of market

4. What We Know…Continuum of Electrification, But Uncertain Market Outcomes ?

5. 2025 CAFE/GHG 54 mpg Standards Probably Won’t Stimulate Significant PEV Sales by 2025…Even With Special ZEV Credits (EVs count as 0 g/mi and receive 2x credits initially) CARB/EPA/DOT Analysis of Technology Needed for Compliance

6. Why (State) Policymakers Are Interested in PEVs • Air pollution and public health • Climate change • Electric utility performance • Jobs • Industrial development Motivations vary greatly across government agencies and legislatures … for California, it was first local air pollution and is now mostly climate change

7. One CARB Scenario to Achieve GHG goals by 2050 … Virtually All Light Duty Vehicles must be “ZEV” by 2050 Source: http://www.arb.ca.gov/board/books/2012/012612/12-1-2pres.pdf 

8. Many States Charging Ahead With PEVs ZEV mandate states

9. Checklist for California Policies Supporting PEVs • Motivating PEV Manufacturers and Consumers • ZEV mandate (CARB + 10 states) • PEV consumer tax credit ($2500) • GHG/CAFE stds to incentivize PEVs • Carpool lane access • Cultivating Local PEV Clusters • Working with metro areas on public charging and streamlining permitting (w/DOE funding) • Promoting PEV Interactions With Electricity Providers • Electricity rate design for PEVs (PUC) • Investing strategically in recharging infrastructure (Governor, $100 million) • Revenues from low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) • Cap and trade revenues?

10. Key California Policy Has Been ZEV Mandate, With a Tortured History (now adopted by 10 other states) Stimulated investment in electric-drive technology, but limited impact on market development (so far).

11. ZEV Mandate (California)(roughly equal % for 10 other states) 14% of 2025 New Vehicle Sales 15% 12% FCVs Annual % of New Vehicle Sales 9% BEVs 6% PHEVs 3% 5

12. California Energy Commission Funded New PH&EV Center at UC Davis

13. New Public-Private Leadership in California PEV Collaborative created in 2010 to coordinate activities between state and local governments, automakers, electric utilities, and others. This detailed report was published in Dec 2010.

14. California Aggressive in Promoting ZEVs (led by Governor, CARB, PUC)

15. May 2012 ZEV Executive Order by Governor • $100M for: • 200 fast charging stations • 10,000 parking space charging stations at apartment complexes, large work sites, universities, etc • Targets set by Governor’s Executive Order • 2015: major cities have adequate infrastructure and “ZEV ready” • 2025: 1.5 million ZEVs in California • 2050: virtually all personal transportation based on ZEVs and GHG emissions from transportation reduced by 80 percent.

16. EV Charging Infrastructure Challenges • How much public charging needed, where, and what type (110v, 220v, 480v) ? • For PHEVs and BEVs • Will industry invest in public charging? • What is role of gov’t for: • Home • Workplace (and retail shopping) • “Public”

17. How to Obtain Approval for EV Charging Installation Project Get Ready & ETEC, 2011

18. A really dumb location for EV charging (in N. Carolina) Photo courtesy of Linda Gaines

19. GIS tools • Fast charge network design • Regional planning • Demand analysis (temporal and geographical) UC Davis Is Designing Optimized Charging Networks Funding: CEC, ECOtality, Nissan

20. Where do People Want Chargers and of What Type?

21. More Incentives for PEVsCalifornia Low Carbon Fuel Standardadopted by California April 23, 2009 • Requires 10% reduction in carbon intensity of transport fuels (gCO2-eq/MJ) • Encompasses all fuels: NG, petroleum, unconventional oil, biofuels, electricity, H2 • Based on lifecycle measurements (source to wheel) • Imposed on oil refiners • Companies can buy and sell credits (from electricity and/or infrastructure suppliers) Could generate hundreds of dollars per vehicle per year

22. Summary of California Policies Supporting PEVs • Motivating PEV Manufacturers and Consumers • ZEV mandate (CARB + 10 states) • PEV consumer tax credit ($2500) • GHG/CAFE stds to incentivize PEVs • Carpool land access • Cultivating Local PEV Clusters • Working with metro areas on public charging and streamlining permitting (w/DOE funding) • Promoting PEV Interactions With Electricity Providers • Electricity rate design for PEVs (PUC) • Investing strategically in recharging infrastructure (Governor, $100 million) • Revenues from low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) • Cap and trade revenues?

23. Overarching Policy/Ideological Issues • Importance of government intervention? • Perceived “cost” of pollution/climate change, and urgency in addressing them? • Market vs regulatory approach? Policy approaches depend on what you believe: • PEVs are expensive and have limited market potential; OR 2) PEVs are attractive and sustainable, and likely to dominate

24. “States and localities, which have generally advanced PEV commercialization more directly and effectively than has Washington, will likely be the source of the most durable solutions.”(?!) Thank You