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The Atmospheric Sciences Entering the 21st Century

A Strategy for Providing Atmospheric Information. The Atmospheric Sciences Entering the 21st Century. A Summary of. Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate National Research Council 1998. Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services 3 December 2001. Tropical and Polar Air Currents

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The Atmospheric Sciences Entering the 21st Century

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  1. A Strategy for Providing Atmospheric Information The Atmospheric SciencesEntering the 21st Century A Summary of Board on Atmospheric Sciences and ClimateNational Research Council 1998 Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services 3 December 2001

  2. Tropical and Polar Air Currents Robert Fitzroy, The Weather, 1863 NOAA Library

  3. Earliest Signal Service weather map on record in NOAA Library September 1, 1872

  4. Re-analysis, Tor Bergeron, 1933

  5. ENIAC First numerical weather forecast--March 1950 24 hours Quasi-geostgrophic barotropic vorticity equation Electronic Numerical Integrator and Calculator

  6. Super Scalar/Vector/Parallel Parallel Vector 10^9 Super Scalar Scalar 10^6 PC Transistors 10^3 Moore’s Law 2010 1 PFlop/s Jack DongarraUniv. of Tennesee 2005 ASCI White ASCI Red Pacific 1 TFlop/s TMC CM-5 Cray T3D TMC CM-2 Cray 2 1 GFlop/s Cray X-MP Cray 1 CDC 7600 IBM 360/195 1 MFlop/s CDC 6600 IBM 7090 1 KFlop/s UNIVAC 1 EDSAC 1 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

  7. Surface 8998 Obs Radiosonde 1197 Aircraft 10310 Tiros Sounder12829 Sat Winds 6270 SSMI 7101 Atmospheric Observations Global Data Coverage 2001 00 UTC 11/29/01

  8. Observations + Equations + Computers Produce Forecasts

  9. Contemporary Realities, Key Ideas • Observations, analysis, and models are inseparably linked and must be improved together • Observational and information technologies present new challenges and opportunities • Atmospheric information services are becoming more distributed • Scientific opportunities exceed resources; choices must be made • Leadership and coordination are necessary for the atmospheric sciences to contribute to national goals

  10. The BASC 21st Century Vision Improvements in atmospheric observations and scientific understanding will combine with advances in technology to enhance atmospheric analysis and prediction. Advances in information technology will foster broader and more effective use of atmospheric services. Society will enjoy greater confidence in atmospheric information and will manage weather and climate risk more decisively and with greater sophistication.

  11. Acquiring the information

  12. Imperatives for Atmospheric Science Imperative 1. Optimize and integrate global observation capabilities Imperative 2. Develop new observation capabilities

  13. Optimize Observations... Develop a specific plan for optimizing and integrating global observations and models of the atmosphere, oceans, and land. Monitor weather, climate, and air quality, and obtain the information needed to improve the predictive numerical models used for weather, climate, atmospheric chemistry, air quality, and near-Earth space activities. Examine proposed configurations with rigorous observing system simulation experiments.

  14. Optimize Observations (cont) New observing opportunities • Commercial aircraft observations • Global positioning system (GPS) • Adaptive strategies Issues and requirements • Integration with modeling efforts • Increases in computer power • Assimilation of new forms of data (radiance, EOS) • Multiple uses of data bases • International collaboration

  15. Develop New Observation Capabilities Commit to a strategy, priorities, and a programto develop new capabilities for observing critical variables such as water in all its phases, wind, aerosols and key chemical constituents, and near-Earth space phenomena all on temporal and spatial scales relevant to forecasts and applications

  16. Broaden our Capabilities • Improve understanding of atmospheric interactions with other components of the Earth System and enhance understanding of interactions between atmospheric phenomena of different scales (USWRP and USGCP). • Apply the discipline of forecasting (predict, verify, learn from errors) with experimental forecasts in atmospheric chemistry, climate, and space weather.

  17. Decisions and Actions Weather and Climate Forecasts Risk and Financial Models Atmospheric Observations and Information

  18. Distributing and using atmospheric information

  19. PUBLIC & PRIVATE WX & CX INFORMATION USERS Media WX INFORMATION GOVERNMENT FIRMS Warnings COMMUNICATIONS Specialized analyses Forecasts and forecasts Observations Networks The AtmosphericSciences and Services Partnership UNIVERSITY, FEDERAL, PRIVATE RESEARCH New Capabilities The Atmospheric Science and Services Partnership

  20. Leadership and Management • Develop a strategic viewpoint to maximize the benefits of an increasingly distributed national and global structure for providing atmospheric information. • Maintain the free and open exchange of weather observations between nations. • Enhance the flows of information between the partners in atmospheric science and services and to the public.

  21. The Classical Forecast - Decision System NWS Computer Forecasts Human Forecaster DecisionMaker Forecastand Advice SelectAction Atmospheric Variables NWS Private Sector The New Era Forecast - Decision System NWS Computer Forecasts Private Numerical Analysis Integration With Risk Models Decision Maker 4-D Atmospheric Variables 4-D Impact Variables and Decision Aids ConfirmAction Decision Process NWS Private Sector

  22. Forecast skill and potential risk Potential Risk Risk or Cost Forecast Skill Skill 0.01 0.1 1 100 1000 10000 100000 10 Days

  23. Basis for Weather Risk Strategies and Actions 100 Forecasts Climatology Weighting (percent) 0 0.1 1000 1 10 100 Days JAD 15 October 2001

  24. Observations NWS TerabitNetwork TeraflopComputers Research Users, Partners A TerascaleWorld

  25. Some laws of information… • Information is not conserved--it multiplies. • We can all use the same information without wearing it out. • Some of us convert information into more valuable forms, some do not. • A lot of ‘information’ is wrong, some of it thanks to computer routines. • Information flows both downhill and uphill. • Information frustrates almost all attempts at confinement, and yet fills all available hard discs. • Trying to stop the flow of information is like trying to stop the tide.

  26. The challenge... To achieve the vision of significantly improved atmospheric information and services, we must • integrate and optimize observations and modeling • work together in an increasingly distributed atmospheric information system • acquire the resources for scientific advance • and then drive to results and improved service

  27. Observations NWS PetabitNetwork TeraflopComputers Research Users, Partners A PetascaleWorld

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