Congressional Politics in the Northwest

1. Congressional Politics in the Northwest Parallels between 1994, 2006 in Washington’s 5th District

2. Questions for discussion • Why did the Northwest enjoy unprecedented influence in Congress between 1970 and 1995? • What were themes and messages in House races in 1994, 2006? • How have demographic & economic changes affected Northwest politics? • How will national politics affect this race?

3. Where is the 5th District?

4. Who is this man?

5. Who is this man? • Thomas S. Foley • Represented 5th District, 1965-1995 • Speaker of the U.S. House, 1989-1995 • U.S. ambassador to Japan, 1997-2001

6. Why was Foley so successful? • Family: Deep roots in eastern Washington • Mentors: Sens. Henry Jackson and Warren Magnuson • “In politics, it’s better to be lucky than to be good… Tom Foley was both.”

7. Why was Foley so successful? • Good committee assignments: Agriculture, Interior • Moderate Democrat, attracted Republican support • In the right place at the right time to advance in leadership • Survived ‘Reagan Revolution’ of 1980 (other Democrats lost) • Succeeded Jim Wright as speaker, 1989

8. Foley’s Qualities • Memory, connections • Story teller, sense of humor • Attention to process, rather than issues • Defender of Congress as an institution

9. Foley’s opponents • 1966-1992: series of ‘dingbats’ • Single-issue candidates • Extremists • Underfunded, lacked support of state party • Why no serious opposition? • Foley co-opted Spokane business establishment • Republicans recognized value of Foley’s seniority • He paid attention to his constituency

10. 1994: Turning point • Demographic changes in 5th District • Migration, especially from California • Aging of traditional Foley voters • Economics • Decline of unions • Shift away from agricultural base • Resource management conflicts (timber, mining)

11. Coincidence of issues (1992-94) • Clinton’s unpopularity • Term limits (and Foley’s longevity in Washington) • House Bank, Post Office scandals • Anti-incumbent sentiment

13. A credible GOP opponent • George Nethercutt • WSU graduate • Former U.S. Senate aide • Attorney, civic volunteer • Spokane County GOP chairman

14. A credible GOP opponent • George Nethercutt • Theme: ‘the only Republican who can beat Tom Foley’ • Defeated two former Foley opponents in September primary

15. The 1994 Campaign • The Gingrich factor • ‘Contract with America’ • Alliance with Rush Limbaugh, talk radio • Attempt to nationalize House elections • Referendum on Clinton’s record

16. Campaign strategy • Which issues do you think George Nethercutt emphasized in his challenge? • How did he portray himself to voters? • Which issues did Foley emphasize in his bid for re-election? • How did he defend his record?

17. Nethercutt’s message

18. Nethercutt’s message • TV commercials • 30 years • Minor Problem • Bonanza

19. Foley’s message • TV commercials • Call • Talk • Cuts

20. The Results • District 5 • Nethercutt, 110,057 (50.9%) • Foley, 106,075 (49.1%) • Nationally • Republicans take control of House for first time since 1954 • Newt Gingrich becomes speaker of the House

21. Could Foley have survived? • Yes, but… • …with a different strategy • Starting earlier (after 1992 election) • Mending fences in district, especially with liberals • Pushing to reform House rules, policies • …and different tactics • More aggressive ads, emphasizing value of seniority • Rapid-response squad to Republican attacks

22. The rest of the story • Nethercutt reneges on pledge to retire after 3 terms, serves five terms • Challenges Patty Murray for U.S. Senate in 2004 • Murray takes 55% of vote • Cathy McMorris elected to replace Nethercutt

23. 2006: Parallels to 1994? • Unnpopular president • Scandals in Congress • Frustration with ‘gridlock’ • Anti-incumbent sentiment • Attempt to make congressional elections national referendum

24. Republican incumbent • Cathy McMorris • Born 1969 • Family orchard, fruit stand in Stevens County • 10 years in Washington Legislature • Elected to Congress, 2004, with 59% of vote

25. Democratic challenger • Peter Goldmark • Bron 1945 • Rancher from Okanogan • Ph.D. scientist • Former Washington state secretary of agriculture, WSU regent

26. Campaign strategies • Which issues do you think Peter Goldmark is raising in his challenge? • What aspects of his background does he emphasize? • Which issues is Cathy McMorris emphasizing in her bid for re-election? • How does she defend her record? • Who do you think will win?

27. Campaign commercials • http://www.votepetergoldmark.com/ • http://www.cathyforcongress.com/cathyforcongress/

28. Latest polling • Results • Cathy McMorris (R): 45 percent • Peter Goldmark (D): 38 percent • Methodology • 350 interviews with random sample of likely voters. • Interviews conducted Sept, 13-17, 2006. • Sampling error is +/- 5.2 percent. • Pollster: Lake Research (hired by Goldmark)

29. What happens next? • Democrats spending money on Goldmark ads: • “McMorris’s Democratic opponent is Peter Goldmark, a rancher whose surprising strength has attracted the support of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which last week began spending $323,000 on television ads opposing McMorris.” (The Washington Post, 10/24) • http://www.dccc.org/races/emerging_races/ • Will RCCC come to McMorris’ defense?