U.S. Science Policy - Some Challenges

1. U.S. Science Policy - Some Challenges Arthur Bienenstock October 7, 2000 Innovative Structures in Basic Research Conference of the Max Planck Society

2. Bienenstock • Physicist & Materials Scientist • Physics and structure of disordered and amorphous materials • Director of Stanford Synchrotron Radiation Laboratory through much of its development • Since 11/97, OSTP associate director for science • Concerns about funding for physical sciences & engineering

3. OSTP Director • Neal Lane • Assistant to the President (President's Science Advisor) • Director, Office of Science and Technology Policy

4. OSTP Mission • Advise the President on policy related to science and technology • Advise the President on other policy matters where science and/or technology is relevant • Coordinate interagency activities

5. Office of Science and Technology Policy

6. U.S. almost unique among industrialized nations • No national universities (except for military) • Instead, system of private and state-funded universities • Federal support of university-based research • >60% of Federally supported basic research • ~1/3 of Federally supported civilian R&D • Federal government is extremely dependent on a system which it does not support or control directly • Large fraction of research support is provided to individuals, or groups of individuals, on basis of competitive, peer-reviewed proposals. • Any faculty member, junior or senior, can apply

7. Some Federal Agencies Supporting S&T-Related Research • Agriculture • Commerce • Defense • Education • Energy • Environmental Protection Agency • Health and Human Services • Interior • Justice • National Aeronautics & Space Administration • National Science Foundation • Transportation

9. Importance of Research to the United States • Economy • Health • Environment • National Security • Transportation • Justice • Human Curiosity • Science and Technology Workforce Development

10. X-Rays • Discovered in 1896 by Roentgen as part of particle physics experiments (1901 Nobel Prize in Physics) • Used for diagnostic and therapeutic radiology within year

11. CT-Scanner - www.imaginis.com

12. CT-Scan Image of Brain Tumor • FromThe Whole Brain Atlas • Neuroimaging Primer, Keith A. Johnson, M.D. • http://www.med.harvard.edu/AANLIB/hms2.html

13. Why CAT-Scans So Long After X-rays? • Computers • Solid-state physics • Materials scientists • Engineers • Computer scientists • Detectors • Physicists • Engineers • Algorithms • Mathematicians • Computer scientists • Almost all working on goals unrelated to CT-Scans

17. Accelerator Complex - Stanford Synchrotron Radiation Laboratory

18. In vivo microscopy of trabecular bone image area anesthetized J.H. Kinney, N.E. Lane, D.L. Haupt, J Bone Miner Res 10:264–270 (1995)

19. Estrogen deficiency induces rapid bone loss and altered architecture before estrogen loss after estrogen loss Scan bone volume(%) connectivity(mm-3) Baseline 23.0±2.5 (n=5) 100±5 (n=6) Post OVX 9.2±5.6 (n=3) 15±10 (n=3) Kinney & Haupt 94

20. Interdependencies of Sciences • High energy physics storage ring • Developed by materials scientists and solid-state physicists for synchrotron radiation • Team of physician, materials scientists and computer scientists apply to osteoporosis • Need social scientists to alter women’s behavior

22. Increasing Balance • 15-20% increases for NSF Core Research Divisions • Biological Sciences • Engineering • Mathematical and Physical Sciences • Social and Behavioral Science

23. Question: What instruments does the Office of Science and Technology Policy employ for redirecting research to new frontiers? • Answer: Interagency Initiatives

24. Interagency Initiatives in FY 2001 Budget • Plant Genome • Information Technology - ~$2,200M • Nanotechnology - ~$500M • Interagency Education Research Initiative - ~$50M

25. Interagency Education Research Initiative • PCAST Panel on Educational Technology calls (3/97) for "major program of experimental research" at $1.5B level • basic research in various educationally relevant technologies... • early stage research aimed at developing new forms of educational software… • rigorous, well-controlled, peer-reviewed, large-scale empirical studies designed to determine which educational approaches are in fact most effective in practice • PCAST Education Panel and OSTP consider structure through mid-98

26. Interagency Education Research Initiative • OSTP brings together, in 1998 • DoEd's Office of Educational Research & Improvement • National Institute of Child Health & Human Development • National Science Foundation • Single program planned • Single solicitation (after many workshops) • Single evaluation process • "Assignment" of projects to specific agencies for funding as part of evaluation process • Interdisciplinary • Large scale

27. Second question • How can research and funding organizations reliably identify innovative researchers with radical new programs not yet established within existing disciplines?

28. "Reliably" ? • Demanding reliability in this process will necessarily discourage decision-makers from supporting "innovative researchers with radical new programs not yet established within existing disciplines" • There have to be failures - and decision makers will fear being blamed for them

29. Revert to Experience as SSRL Director • Beam time extremely scarce • Proposal Review Panel rated "safe" experiments higher than high payoff-high risk • I asked them to identify latter anyway • On some, I overruled Panel and scheduled experiments anyway - explaining afterwards • Viewed such decisions as my responsibility

30. Politicians and Universities • Many political issues depend on science or technology • Few members of Congress understand science • Rockefeller statement at PCAST • They all went to OUR universities - why didn't we educate them?

31. Workforce - View from OSTP • Very low unemployment rate • Statements that unavailability of workers is limiting economic growth • Requests for increases in H-1B visas • Are these short-term phenomena?

32. Growth in Fraction of Total U.S. Workforce Employed in ST&E • 1962 - 11% • 1995 - 15% (OSTP analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics statistics)

33. BLS Projections - Job Growth • Professional specialty occupations • Includes scientists, engineers, medical personnel • 1986-1996 - Grew by 34% • 1996-2006 - Projected growth - 27% • Ten specific occupations with highest projected growth • 6 - health-related • 4 - computer-related

34. Bureau of the Census Demographic Projections - 18-64 year olds

35. Percent of 22 Year Olds Earning Science & Engineering Degrees - 1995 • African-Americans - 5.7 • Asians - 21.6 • Hispanic - 4.8 • non-Hispanic White Females - 11.8 • non-Hispanic White Males - 13.8

36. Projections of Future Situation • If participation rates of all the groups remain the same and demographic projections are correct, • then fraction of workforce that is ST&E will decrease significantly at time when increase is likely to be needed.

37. Calculated Fraction of 22 Year Olds Receiving Bachelors Degrees in Science & Engineering if Award Rates of Various Groups Remain Constant

38. Immigration & the ST&E Workforce - 1995 • 12% of people in U.S. holding S&E bachelor’s degrees were naturalized citizens or non-U.S. citizens • Would have to increase immigration significantly to hold ST&E fraction of workforce constant if don’t increase domestic participation rates • Nations providing immigrants are building their own ST&E workforces and economies

39. Basic Conclusion • Must remain attractive for immigration • Must increase participation rates of all groups in ST&E • Under-represented minorities, women and persons with disabilities represent largest potential pools

40. Progress Over Last Two Decades