The Internet and Democracy

1. The Internet and Democracy • In the late 1990s and early 2000, many people predicted that the Internet was going to spread democracy around the world. • Tom Friedman – choice between “free market vanilla and North Korea” • Bill Clinton – dictatorships trying to crack down on Internet is“sort of like trying to nail Jello to the wall” • Again, these optimistic visions of the future have failed to materialize. • But the Internet, together with related technologies (text messaging etc) has changed the way in which pro- and anti-democratic forces operate. • To understand why – need to look at what these technologies involve.

2. Naïve beginnings • First flush of enthusiasm about the Internet. • Belief that it would spread democratic values and topple tyrants (Cyberlibertarianism). • True not only in developed world but even more so in developing world. • The Internet as a force for globalization. • Spreading Western values • Spreading the truth/resisting censorship • Of course, things weren’t as straightforward for reasons we have already discussed …

3. Different technologies have different consequences • Bringing together some of the themes that we have discussed in class. • Internet and related technologies provide space for different kinds of media. • These media in turn are more or less conducive to different kinds of content. • And this affects how they reshape the landscape for pro- and anti- democracy forces.

4. Two ways of promoting democracy • We should distinguish between two ways in which the Internet and related technologies can promote democracy. • Through providing help to pro-democracy activists in protests and other actions aimed at overturning regimes. • Through promoting civil society which may indirectly lead to more democracy in the long run. • And also should be aware that anti-democratic forces can use the Internet too. • Weakening of civil society in Russia and elsewhere.

5. Different tools for different purposes • Various media (all based on the Internet or network communication) may have highly diverse consequences. • In particular – imply different relationships between the sender of a message/webpage/TV spot and the recipients. • We can distinguish between one-to-one forms of communication, one-to-many forms of communication, and many-to-many forms of communication.

6. One to One Communication • Traditional forms of direct communication, in which one person is communicating with another (or perhaps with a very small number of people). • Traditional forms have included letters, face-to-face conversations etc. • Newer forms include much email (personal email etc). • But also much instant text messaging. • Also some new Web 2.0 technologies such as Twitter.

7. One-to-many • Involves a single (or small number) of sources, and many possible recipients. • Traditional model of TV broadcasting and newspaper publishing. • But also applies to many forms of content on the Internet. • Standard web pages (of organizations etc) – designed to be read by many people, but not modified by them. • General email blasts (such as much of what MoveOn does in the US)

8. Many-to-Many • Traditionally, it has been hard to have large distributed conversations. • But blogs provide one example of how this is changing. • A vast conversation taking place among large numbers of people – but organized. • Also, other new technologies, including social networking sites (Facebook etc) have important many-to-many aspects.

9. Technologies and communication • Some technologies are better equipped to provide certain kinds of communication and less well equipped to provide others. • Email – great for one-to-one and one-to-many communication. Not so good for many-to-many. • Text messages – like email. • Web pages – good for one to many communication. • Blogs – good for many-to-many communication, and (sometimes) one-to-many communication, but overkill for one-to-one communication. • YouTube – excellent for one-to-many communication, and also has some many-to-many applications.

10. Technologies and content • This goes together with differences in the kinds of content that different media favor. • Instant messages – short punchy messages, often in jargon. Encourages quick back-and-forth. • Email – somewhat longer text based messages (typically less quick than text messages). • Blogs – text based communication over period of hours. • YouTube etc – takes hours or days to edit and upload.

11. Media and political action • Combination of (a) the nature of the medium (one to many, one to one etc), and the kinds of content it favors have implications for political action. • Some media are well suited to rapid organizing. • Others to slower forms of communication over days, weeks and perhaps longer. • Thus – we may expect different electronic media to have very different consequences for pro- and anti-democratic forces.

12. Instant text messaging/SMS • Short simple messages are well suited to the organization of ‘smart mobs’ – crowds that converge on a particular place for a particular purpose. • Allow for quick adaptation to a limited set of changing circumstances (changed meeting place etc). • Thus well suited to the organization of spontaneous demonstrations and other similar forms of action. • One to many form of SMSing can also be used by state or protestors to organize concerted action.

13. Blogs • Allow for more complex forms of discussion – and are speedier than traditional mass communication. • But not well suited to mobilization on the street. • May even serve as a distraction – some democratic activists complain about bloggers thinking they can spur the revolution from their bedroom (they can’t).

14. Audiovisual services (YouTube etc) • Slower than other forms of electronic communication and not well suited at all to quick back-and-forths. • Preparing clips takes time and resources. • However, may have a profound impact on people’s willingness to mobilize. • Video can carry a much more visceral punch.

15. What does this suggest … • (1) One-to-many or one-to-one technologies such as SMS/email can help organize broad political action. • Good at disseminating short pieces of information rapidly. • However only good at simple forms of communication – not long run movement building. • (2) Many-to-many text rich technologies such as blogs can coordinate more compex tasks, and substitute in part for a free press. • Much more sluggish than SMS and do not have a mass audience. • But can build civil society. • (3) Many-to-many forms of communication with audiovisual content (YouTube) are poor at organizing a mass audience. • But may help trigger mobilization in important ways.

16. Case studies • 4 Case studies – allow us to see how these dynamics play out in real life. • China • The Ukraine • Lebanon, Bahrain and the Arab world • Russia

17. China and the Internet • China has a highly developed set of controls on Internet. • not only blocks specific IP addresses, it also has dynamic filtering. • Can block pages that contain specific words (Falun Gong). • Has also blocked access sporadically to search engines at sensitive moments. • Blocked Google before an important Party Congress. • Now seems to have forced Google (and Yahoo! and Microsoft) to cooperate more generally.

18. Jingjing and Chacha

20. Blocking of content • On the one hand, this has led to severe restrictions on what you can and cannot talk about using the Internet in China. • Arrests of pro-democracy bloggers etc. • On the other, people still find ways to talk about political issues, but in highly indirect ways. • Some evidence that a limited degree of power is leaking away from the state. • Case of email from reporter – and response.

21. Civil society vs. hyper-nationalism • Rebecca McKinnon – suggests that the US should not seek to push China on Internet freedom issues. • Chinese bloggers etc much more likely to flourish if they are not seen as directly challenging the regime. • Hopes for gradual flowering of a civil society – a realm of conversation outside the control of the state. • And perhaps leading to long run transition to democracy or at least a more responsive regime.

22. Alternative scenario • However, there is an alternative possibility – c.f. the anti Japan riots in 2005. • These were organized by a mixture of bulletin boards (primitive forms of many-to-many) and text messaging. • Initially, they were at least tacitly encouraged by the regime. • However, rapidly got out of control and developed a life of their own – eventually squashed by the authorities. • This suggests that the benign civil society scenario isn’t the only one possible.

23. The Ukraine • Dramatic elections in 2004 following the exit from power of Kuchma. • Opposition had a popular candidate in Yuschenko. • Government engaged in extensive vote-rigging to ensure that their candidate – Victor Yanukovych won. • Opposition organized protests in which 100,000-300,000 people came out every day to protest in Kiev, with other protests in other parts of Ukraine.

24. SMS messaging • SMS messages not the only factor in getting people out to protest. • But did play an important role in organizing protests (esp. in mobilizing young people). • College students used SMS to tell a dozen of their friends to come to Independence Square – and to forward the message on to a dozen others creating a snowball effect. • Also provided less organized forms of political communication – political jokes etc.

25. Blogs • Some have claimed that blogs played an important role. • Some evidence of a role for Ukrainskaya Pravda. • Substitute for censored print media. • But only 12% of Ukrainians had Internet access on a regular basis. • Thus – its impact was limited to elites.

26. Old style media • Traditional TV also played a highly important role – bizarrely, the opposition had control over a TV station. • One notorious incident where Yanukovych was apparently attacked with “heavy, blunt instruments.” • But this wasn’t quite what it appeared.

27. Final results • Public outcry led to a second vote being held, which Yuschenko won. • However, hasn’t proved a long term success. • Opposition fragmented after the elections. • Ukraine is better than it was, but is now at best a quite unstable democracy with continuing structural issues.

28. The Arab World • The Internet still plays only a minor role in the Arab world because of low levels of penetration (not many people have access). • Cell phone access is relatively low too. • Satellite television is in many ways more important. • But there are important cases where the Internet and related technologies have made a political difference. • Lebanon – the Cedar Revolution • Bahrain – arguments between Shia majority and Sunni rulers.

29. Cedar revolution and Internet • Lebanon sees higher use of cellphones/Internet than many other parts of the Arab world. • “Cedar Revolution” in Lebanon saw extensive use of text messaging to manage demonstrations. • Organized protests and helped protestors converge at designated points • Used to share encouraging information about the sympathies of soldiers who were ostensibly supposed to stop demonstrators from reaching central Beirut • Used to share photographs that were often later uploaded to websites

30. Blogs and the Cedar Revolution • Contrary to some claims, blogs played no major role in the Cedar Revolution. • There were only a few Lebanese blogs in existence when it happened. • Afterwards – a flowering of blogs, primarily among Lebanese expatriates who wanted to discuss what was happening. • Mostly upper middle classes – not ‘voices of the street.’

31. Revolution’s Aftermath • Like the Ukraine, the revolution has not sustained itself very well. • Repeated assassinations of anti-Syrian politicians. • Prominent role of Hezbollah/Israeli incursion. • General sense of chaos, instability – not by any stretch of the imagination an established democracy.

32. Bahrain • Unusual among Arab countries in high penetration of the Internet – nearly a quarter of Bahrainis use it. • Also a society which is divided in important ways. • Shias form a majority of the population. • But are effectively excluded from politics; ruling family and elite are Sunni.

33. Use of Internet by disaffected groups • Both democratic activists and Shia activists have common interests (a more democratic Bahrain would give Shias more power). • Have used Internet to articulate a political voice that they can’t in mainstream newspapers. • Bahrain Online (founded by Ali Abduleman) hosts web forums that vigorously debate politics.

34. Organized dissidence • Blogs and cellphones have gone together to organize flash protests. • Abdulemam has used WWW, email and text messages to organize flash protests. • Opposition groups have used Bahrain Online to organize protests and strikes. • Has led to significant political disaffection, culminating in a dramatic set of events in 2005.

35. UN Report • Abdulemam and colleagues were arrested in February 2005 for publishing a critical UN human rights report on their website. • Before arrest was even announced, a consortium of bloggers created a Free Ali web page. • This set in motion mass protests, and the involvement of Shia newspapers and liberal newspapers in denouncing the arrests. • 80,000 people involved in street demonstrations.

36. Action on the Street • Demonstrations used ‘moblogs’ pairings of protestors with mobile phones to take photos and bloggers with computers to publish them. • Photos spread across Internet. • Al Jazeera started broadcasting the protests live. • Abdulemam freed after fifteen days.

37. Other Arab bloggers • This is a success story for democracy. • However, as Marc Lynch has pointed out, Western commentators tend to emphasise pro-democracy bloggers and de-emphasize others, who have differing (some legitimate, some problematic) views of politics and society. • Islamic commentators have been vigorous adopters of new technologies. • Muslim Brotherhood has established an important presence in the Egyptian blogosphere. • Terrorist groups have had success in using WWW video – through circulation of beheading videos, video messages from their leaders etc.

38. The Internet in Putin’s Russia • Russia – presents yet another model of the relationship between the Internet and the government. • Not an authoritarian regime – but not very democratic either. • In theory – Internet could serve as an alternative to a media sector that is only weakly democratic. • TV stations are controlled by government friendly forces. • Newspapers are either ineffective, or pro-government. • But the Internet doesn’t actually provide much in the way of alternative voices – why?

39. Indirect State control • Not censorship as in China • Govt owns the largest ISP, and plays a dominant role in the market. • Laws require that ISPs allow govt access to incoming and outgoing traffic. • Yet the government doesn’t use these to block traffic as in other parts of the world. • Instead, a softer approach.

40. Soft authoritarianism • Russian government has an Internet policy similar to that for the normal media. • Shadowy backers for many online news sources, whom the Kremlin can influence. • Denunciations of alternative voices as being catspaws for “foreign” interests. • This means that much of the information available online for Russians is, effectively, propaganda. • More subtle – but also perhaps more effective in the long run.

41. Lessons of Democracy and the Internet • Different technologies do have different consequences. • We see how cellphone text messaging is the medium of choice for organizing protests. • Blogs may play an important role (within limits) in getting message out to others, and in framing events. • YouTube and other media are likely to become more important over time, given role played by TV in existing protests.

42. Limits of Internet • Internet based technologies and cellphones may have improved chances for mobilizing protests. • But this is not enough in itself to create democracy. • Subsequent histories of Lebanon and Ukraine suggest that protests and the removal of the authoritarian ruler are not enough on their own to create successful democracies. • It may be that ‘instant protest’ technologies may be a bad thing over the longer term. • Mean that serious party organizations are less likely to be built up.

43. Internet and civil society • As McKinnon suggests – it may well be that the Internet is more important in the long run because it creates a civil society. • Forms of cultural expression and debate that are outside the control of the state. • “American Idol” type show as the avatar of democracy. • Evidence from eighteenth century England and elsewhere that this was important over the longer run.