CAN-EWLAT: Canadian Extreme Water Level Adaptation Tool

1. CAN-EWLAT: Canadian Extreme Water Level Adaptation Tool Blair Greenan Bedford Institute of Oceanography Fisheries and Oceans Canada

2. Outline • Overview of DFO ACCASP • IPCC Assessment Report 5 Summary • Why is Rising Global Sea Level an Issue of Concern? • CAN-EWLAT Demonstration • Summary RPIC 2014 Marine Infrastructure National Workshop

3. ACCASP: Aquatic Climate Change Adaptation Services Program In 2010, renewal of Climate Change Adaptation funding under Canada’s Clean Air Agenda included Fisheries and Oceans Canada • Budget 2011 allocated $148.8 million for Climate Change Adaptation programming for nine federal Department programs • Under the Enhance the Science Foundation to Understand and Predict Climate Change and Assess Climate Change Impacts theme: • DFO received $16.5 million over five years to implement a science-based climate change program focused on adapting the delivery of Fisheries and Oceans Canada’s mandated areas of responsibility • Year III of the program commenced in April 2013 RPIC 2014 Marine Infrastructure National Workshop

4. ACCASP: Aquatic Climate Change Adaptation Services Program Risk Assessments of Large Aquatic Basins (LAB) • Large Aquatic Basin (LAB) integrated risk assessments of the impacts of climate change on the Department – reflecting ecosystem, socio-economic, program, and policy considerations • Trends & Projections reports now available Competitive Science Funding Envelopes • Development of new knowledgethrough science and technology to improve the Department’s understanding of the impacts of climate change across its business lines • Adaptation to climate change through the development of science-based andapplied climate change adaptation toolsfor use by Departmental decision makers and Canadians RPIC 2014 Marine Infrastructure National Workshop

5. Processes Influencing Sea Level RPIC 2014 Marine Infrastructure National Workshop

6. Sea Level Trends RPIC 2014 Marine Infrastructure National Workshop

7. IPCC AR5 Summary for Policymakers (2013) • The rate of sea level rise since the mid-19th century has been larger than the mean rate during the previous two millennia. Over the period 1901 to 2010, global mean sea level rose by 0.19 [0.17 to 0.21] m • Since the early 1970s, glacier mass loss and ocean thermal expansion from warming together explain about 75% of the observed global mean sea level rise. • Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century. Under all RCP scenarios, the rate of sea level rise will very likely exceed that observed during 1971 to 2010 due to increased ocean warming and increased loss of mass from glaciers and ice sheets. RPIC 2014 Marine Infrastructure National Workshop

8. IPCC AR5 Summary for Policymakers (2013) RPIC 2014 Marine Infrastructure National Workshop

9. IPCC AR5 Summary for Policymakers (2013) RPIC 2014 Marine Infrastructure National Workshop

10. Hourly Sea Level at Halifax 94 years of data RPIC 2014 Marine Infrastructure National Workshop

11. Hourly Sea Level at Halifax 94 years of data RPIC 2014 Marine Infrastructure National Workshop

12. Hourly Sea Level at Halifax 94 years of data RPIC 2014 Marine Infrastructure National Workshop

13. Hourly Sea Level at Halifax 94 years of data RPIC 2014 Marine Infrastructure National Workshop

14. Increase in Flood Frequency for Sea Level Rise of 0.5m IPCC AR5 RPIC 2014 Marine Infrastructure National Workshop

15. CAN-EWLAT Description • Objective: Develop a web-based planning tool to estimate extreme sea level associated with climate change • This tool incorporates various data sources (e.g. tide gauge, GPS) along the uncertainty in the estimates of future sea level rise • We apply a statistical method to compute a vertical allowance, which is the amount that infrastructure should be raised above its current height in order to maintain the risk of flooding to be the same as it is today RPIC 2014 Marine Infrastructure National Workshop

16. Halifax Water Levels RPIC 2014 Marine Infrastructure National Workshop

17. Probability of Flooding Today - Halifax +0.3m Halifax return level about mean (m) Return period (years)

18. Vertical Land Uplift: Regional Variability RPIC 2014 Marine Infrastructure National Workshop

19. Vertical Allowances for Atlantic Canada RPIC 2014 Marine Infrastructure National Workshop

20. RPIC 2014 Marine Infrastructure National Workshop

21. Summary • Global sea level will continue to rise throughout the remainder of this century • There is regional variability in sea level rise in the Atlantic Canada region, due primarily to vertical land motion • DFO ACCASP risk assessment identified infrastructure damage as a result of climate change as an important issue to address • CAN-EWLAT will be a tool to help planners account for sea level rise RPIC 2014 Marine Infrastructure National Workshop