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Population Ageing in four dimensions: a strategic look at the future

Population Ageing in four dimensions: a strategic look at the future. Dr Natalie Jackson  University of Tasmania. Projected change by age (%): (Australia, high series). Projected Change by broad age group. Regional Diversity:.

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Population Ageing in four dimensions: a strategic look at the future

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  1. Population Ageing in four dimensions: a strategic look at the future Dr Natalie Jackson  University of Tasmania

  2. Projected change by age (%): (Australia, high series)

  3. Projected Change by broad age group

  4. Regional Diversity: • Between now and 2019 almost half of Australia’s 714 local government areas are projected to either decline in size or not to grow • Net migration loss at young adult ages, sometimes gain at older ages • Premature ageing • But all will grow at the older ages

  5. Have you seen this man?

  6. Population Ageing: 4 dimensions • Numerical Ageing • Increase in numbers of elderly (primarily caused by increased life expectancy) • Structural ageing • Increase in proportions of elderly (primarily caused by low/falling birth rates) • Natural decline • More elderly than children   more deaths than births (already in many LGAs) • Absolute decline • Inability of replacement migration to replace the ‘lost’ births and increased deaths

  7. Numerical ageing Increased numbers due to improved life expectancy + baby boomers

  8. A guaranteed growth industry.. • Those who will be 65+ in ten years time are already 55+. • Currently around 2.6 million Australians aged 65+ years • By 2015, 3.7 mill; by 2025, 5.2 mill 65+ years A B

  9. Growing as we speak.. A B

  10. Time to plan /prepare

  11. Message # 1 Massive increase in numbers of elderly is guaranteed There is time to plan Trends will differ by region

  12. Structural ageing Changing proportions due to low birth rates; + increased numbers of elderly

  13. Structural Ageing (high series, Australia)

  14. Projected change by age (%): (Victoria, high series – ANM 18,500, TFR 1.7)

  15. Projected Change by broad age group

  16. Diversity by State (c.2004)

  17. Diversity by LGA (c.2004)

  18. Diversity: Structural Change (%)

  19. There is more to population ageing than meets the eye

  20. The baby boomers biggest gift • OECD next 25 years: 70 million retirements, to be replaced by just 5 million labour market entrants • Past 25 years: 45 million retirements, replaced by 120 million baby boomers • Absolute decline in working age population = 65 million

  21. Structural crossover: Entrants/Exits (Labour market, Australia, high series) 2018

  22. Regional Diversity (Victoria, high series) 2019

  23. Negative by 2010 in 2 States (Projected Entry/Exit ratios by State, High variant) 2010 2018

  24. How different from the past? (Entry/Exit ratios by State, High variant) Past Projected

  25. The good news(Entry/Exit Ratios and Unemployment)

  26. Victoria’s correlation 100%

  27. More Regional Diversity

  28. Organisational Renewal Recruitment, Retention Geographic Location

  29. Government Admin & Defence (#9/17) Males Females E:E 1.0

  30. Age structure of session attendees

  31. ‘Older’ Industries

  32. ‘Middle-Aged’ Industries

  33. ‘Middle - Younger’ Industries

  34. Overlay geographic location (Queensland, Percentage 65+ years 2003)

  35. Another crossover: Elderly/Children(Australia, high series) Crossover 2019

  36. Message # 2 Structural ageing affects all age groups • Trends differ by region • Many positives (competition for the young; declining uep; increasing incomes) • Many negatives (increasing labour market costs; problems with recruitment, retention; reduced tertiary training) • No net effect

  37. Natural Decline More elderly than children >> more deaths than births Already extant in many LGAs Insufficient ‘replacement migration’ >> absolute decline Ethnic composition changing rapidly

  38. Natural Increase and Net Migration(1971-2001)

  39. Natural Increase (Victoria) Negative by 2036

  40. Population ‘Churning’ and Ethnic Composition • Focus on net international migration gain (c. 125,000 p.a.); sustainability? • Around 16.5 million movements per year • 8.3 mill. arrivals 8.2 mill. departures • Permanent arrivals 93,900 • Permanent Departures 50,500 (net 43,400) • Long term (but temporary) arrivals 328,000 • Long term departures 247,000 (net 81,000) • Migrants increasingly from developing countries • Increasingly different ethnic composition • 420,000 arrivals / 300,000 departures

  41. In sum • Reconceptualise what is meant by ‘growth’ • Build both numerical and structural ageing, population churning, changing ethnic composition into planning • Understand the regionally diverse nature of population ageing • Accept; Buffer; Celebrate

  42. Thankyou Natalie.Jackson@utas.edu.au http://www.taspop.tasbis.com

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