Transforming Defense

1. Transforming Defense “The Path Not Taken …yet” • The Role of Defense in National Security • The Management of Defense • The Force Vision: Broad and Sustained Competitive Advantage Arthur K. Cebrowski Director, Force Transformation 4 September 2003 NDIA T2 Technologies

2. What do these have in common?

3. node failure node attack Understanding of Network Relationships is Critical We need to understand. We need to prepare. We need to deliver. The question is how?

4. Globalization II Globalization III Industrial Age Information Age Global Trends

5. Industrial Age Success = Scale + Scope Top Down - Centralized Vertical Integration Information Hoarding Local Awareness Arms Length Relationships Make and Sell Inwardly Focused Information Age Success = Adaptability + Agility Empowering the “Edges” Virtual Integration Information Sharing Increased Transparency Collaboration & Synchronization Sense and Respond Externally Oriented Accelerated Innovation & Experimentation Global Trends • New Rules • New Behaviors • New Competencies • New Relationships

6. Global Trends Globalization IIGlobalization III • Static, bipolar “market” • Bulk of population in 3rd World • Limits on security “exports” • Beliefs in Conflict: Political Ideology • Ordering principle = Great Power • War; yet none since 1945 • Also bifurcated, but very fluid • 4 Billion in Core, 2 Billion in Gap • “Unlimited” global demand for security exports • Beliefs in Conflict: Religion/culture • Warfare now simultaneous across system, state and individual levels • New Rules • New Institutions • New Security Environment • Disconnectedness Danger Proliferation of WMD & military technology

7. Information Age • Short Cycle Time • New Competencies • Adaptive Planning • Integrated Joint • Interdependent Globalization III Globalization II • Emerging Rules • Market Opportunities • New Customer Base Emerging • Security=All Else+Defense • Developed Rules • Mature Markets • Narrowing Customer Base • Security=Defense Industrial Age • Long Cycle Time • Well Developed Tools/Processes • Deliberate Planning • Deconflicted Joint • Tortured Interoperability Global Trends

8. Global Trends …Military Response • The Emerging American Military: • More expeditionary (including lighter, more lethal) • More networked • Designed to leverage the exterior positions (precision from distance as sensors move in) • Leverages increasingly persistent ISR • Tighter sensor-shooter timelines • (sensing, C2, fly-out) • Values Information Superiority (information operations) • Expanded unmanned capabilities (UAV, UCAV, UUV, robotics) Information Age Iraq 2 Iraq 1 Industrial Age

9. System State Individual Global Trends…Threats …Strategic Response Strategic Capabilities: • More Preventative- Less Punitive • Achieve unambiguous warning earlier • More SOF-Like characteristics • A Deter Forward Force • An Intel/Surveillance-based force • Coping with systems perturbations Globalization II Globalization III

10. Volunteer (Recruited) Force Professional Citizen Soldier Warrior + Enforcer + “Systems Administrator” Projecting Power Exporting Security Event Focused Continuous Punitive Preventative Access to Battlespace Access to Political Victory Policy = Power x Moral Principle Top Level Issues …Culture: Values, Beliefs, Attitudes

11. Asset wars Industrial technical power Information dominance Precise physical targeting Intelligence: secret nuggets and EEIs Elite wars Decapitation, insurgency, infiltration Religion & ideology focus Human & group targeting Intelligence: the network and dynamics Challenge for USG Intelligence (and Enemy) Elite wars mobilize via non-military assets Irregular time paths and periods Both sides can use technology (and terror) against enemy strength Connectivity and ideology of elites is key in fighting wars Elite wars are political, social and economic science-centered

12. The “Strategic Corporal”

13. Information Age Globalization III Globalization II Industrial Age Parallel Challenges in Commercial Sector “Primary Axis of IT Consulting Company Competencies” Where Successful Companies Are Operating “Primary Axis of Strategy Consulting Company Competencies” Where Many Companies Are Operating

14. Information Age Globalization III Globalization II Industrial Age Parallel Challenges in Commercial Sector “Primary Axis of Engineering School Competencies” Where Some Business Schools Are Operating “Primary Axis of Business School Competencies” Where Most Business Schools Were Operating

15. Information Age Globalization III Globalization II Industrial Age Education and Transformation “Primary Axis of Air Force Institute of Technology Naval Postgraduate School Competencies” Where DoD Needs to Operate – What Education needs to Facilitate Current Focus of PME “Primary Axis of War College Competencies” ?

16. Volunteer (Recruited) Force Professional Citizen Soldier Information Age Warrior + Enforcer + “Systems Administrator” Projecting Power Exporting Security Event Focused Continuous Globalization III Globalization II Punitive Preventative Access to Battlespace Access to Political Victory Policy = Power x Moral Principle Industrial Age Training and Transformation “Primary Axis of Advanced Distributed Learning at War Colleges and Regional Centers” Link to New Political Objectives Creative Opportunities in Every Event Train the “Strategic Corporal” Experimentation is Leader Training “Primary Axis of Individual Competencies” Current Focus of Joint Knowledge Development and Distribution Capability ?

17. Operation Iraqi Freedom …What we saw • Grand Strategies in Tension • Network-Centric Warfare Implementation • The Power of Transformation “…the 21st century and September 11th have, in fact, changed the circumstances in the world significantly.” Secretary Donald Rumsfeld “…it allowed us to make decisions and execute those decisions faster than any opponent.” Lt. Gen. David D. McKiernan “…a campaign…unlike anything that we have seen before,” Gen. Tommy Franks

18. NCW implementation The power of shared awareness ISR High speed networking New capabilities / TTPs The non-contiguous battlespace Networking + ISR = Speed Information running ahead of the physics A new Airpower – Land power intersection All weather weapons / CAS / Interdiction Speed Weight of Fire vs Precision Movement toward tactical level jointness / interoperability Especially SOF The Power of Transformation…What we saw Speed Creates the Appearance of an Incompetent Opponent ISR + Speed + Lethality => Bad Options for the Enemy A New “Sweet Spot”

19. …What We Also Saw

20. …What We Also Saw

21. Strategic Maneuver/Balance • Forces forward • Strategic deploy from home • Allies • Operational Maneuver • From forward garrison • From the sea • From strategic distances • Deter Forward • 2d derivative force • Sustaining force • Constabulary/Nation-building force Transforming Defense…Strategic Issues

22. …and what we didn’t see • Operational maneuver From strategic distances (except 173 AB and some Air Force assets) From the sea (except 26th MEU) • A new concept of lift • A new concept of vertical maneuver • A new land warrior system • A new joint demand centered logistics system • A new demand centered intelligence system • A new way of training and preparing

23. Training Transformation Approved by SECDEF “We must transform not only the capabilities at our disposal, but also the way we think, the way we train, the way we exersise and the way we fight.” Donald H. Rumsfeld Secretary of Defense Transformation Planning Guidance April 2003

24. Information Age • Short Cycle Time • New Competencies • Adaptive Planning • Integrated Joint • Interdependent Globalization III • Emerging Rules • Market Opportunities • New Customer Base Emerging • Security=All Else+Defense Training Must Deliver Leaders • Who understand Network Centric Warfare • Who learn how to fight, persevere, and succeed in the new global context • Who are adaptive in applying their abilities • Who push the envelope toward the Information Age and Globalization III

25. Transformation Strategy • Transformed Culture Through Innovative Leadership • Transformed Processes • Risk Mitigation through Future Operating Concepts • Anticipatory and Adaptable to Counter New Threats • Transformed Capabilities Through Force Transformation • Strengthening Joint Operations • Exploiting US intelligence advantages • Experimenting in support of new warfighting concepts • War gaming • Modeling and Simulation • Joint National Training Capability • Operational Lessons Learned

26. Training Transformation…The Roadmap Joint National Training Capability Preparing forces collectively: Short Cycle Time Integrated Joint and Interdependent Joint Knowledge Development and Distribution Capability Preparing forces individually: Emerging Rules Market Opportunities New Competencies Joint Assessment and Enabling Capability Anticipating, Evaluating and Guiding Development: Adaptive Planning New Customers Feedback

27. The Path Not Taken… yet

28. Information-Based Soldier • Fully integrated Infantry Fighting System • Combines Sensors, Computers, Lasers, Geo Location and Radio with Soldier Mission Equipment • Digitized reporting; brings dismounted soldier into digital battlefield/situational awareness • Video capture and transmission

29. What do we want from Training Technology? • What do we want? Better performance at lower cost Transparency Every event is a training event Creative opportunities-Support discovery and invention Feedback • What don’t we want? A more robust training stovepipe

30. Transforming Defense…Working definition • Elements of Transformation • Continuing process • Creating/anticipating the future • Co-evolution of concepts, processes, organizations, and technology • New competitive areas/competencies;revalued attributes • Fundamental shifts in underlying principles • New sources of power • Broadened capabilities base • New Strategic Context • Broadened Threat Context • Technological Threats Facilitated by Falling Barriers to Competition Vision: Broad and sustained competitive advantage

31. Down at the grange they’re teachin’ a new way of plowin’ Ya’ goin’? Nope! I already don’t plow as good as I know how ... Training Transformation