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Puyallup School District Trends & Projections

Puyallup School District Trends & Projections. Presented to the Puyallup School Board W. Les Kendrick January 2009. Outline. Enrollment trends in Puyallup and the Region Demographic trends affecting enrollment Projections.

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Puyallup School District Trends & Projections

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  1. Puyallup School District Trends & Projections Presented to the Puyallup School Board W. Les Kendrick January 2009

  2. Outline • Enrollment trends in Puyallup and the Region • Demographic trends affecting enrollment • Projections

  3. Puyallup Enrollment TrendP223 Enrollment OCTOBERExcludes Chief Leschi Students and Full-Time Running Start Students

  4. Puyallup Elementary Enrollment P223 EnrollmentExcludes Chief Leschi Students

  5. Puyallup Junior High EnrollmentP223 Enrollment Excludes Chief Leschi Students

  6. Puyallup High School EnrollmentP223 EnrollmentExclude Chief Leschi Students and Full Time Running Start Students

  7. Pierce County Public Schools Enrollment Trend (October)

  8. Puyallup’s Share of County K-12 Public School Enrollment(October P223 Enrollment)

  9. Pierce County Districts: Change in Enrollment2007 - 2008 Net Change in Enrollment: 275

  10. Key Demographic Trends to Watch • Births and the K-12 Population • Population Growth in the District • New Housing Growth

  11. Projected Pierce County BirthsMy forecast based on birth rates and the State population forecast for Pierce County Next year’s cohort Projected Births:2007-2015

  12. Puyallup District Population ForecastBased on PSRC Neighborhood Forecast for Areas in and Around the Districtand the Latest Population Estimates for the District

  13. County K-12 Public School Forecast Based on Projected Changes in the Age 5-19 Population

  14. Back of the Envelope CalculationsWhere is Enrollment Headed in 2020?

  15. What about next year? Things to watch • Housing market is a big factor • Virtual schools? • Private schools and the economy

  16. New Single Family Homes Sold in the Puyallup School District: 2006-2008Source: New Home Trends *As of December 5, 2008

  17. New Single Family Homes Currently for Sale in the Puyallup School DistrictSource: New Home Trends

  18. Enrollment Forecast Low, Medium & High

  19. Low, Medium & High Headcount ForecastOct-2009

  20. Alternative Projections 2009-2020Excludes Chief Leschi and Full-Time Running Start

  21. Summary of the Enrollment Picture as of Today • Enrollment is projected to remain flat and possibly decline in 2009. Enrollment might also be down or show very little growth in 2010. • Long range enrollment to 2020 is still projected to grow due to increases in county births and housing and population increases in the District. • Enrollment in 2020 is projected to be somewhere between 22,500 (Low) and 24,900 (High).

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