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Shoreline School District Trends & Projections

Shoreline School District Trends & Projections. William L. (“Les”) Kendrick (Consultant) October 16, 2006 October Headcount Data is Used in this Report for Estimating Trends and Projections . Outline. Enrollment Trends: Shoreline and the County Demographic drivers of enrollment

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Shoreline School District Trends & Projections

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  1. Shoreline School District Trends & Projections William L. (“Les”) Kendrick (Consultant) October 16, 2006 October Headcount Data is Used in this Report for Estimating Trends and Projections

  2. Outline • Enrollment Trends: Shoreline and the County • Demographic drivers of enrollment • District enrollment projections • Projected Change by grade level and service area Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

  3. District Enrollment TrendOctober EnrollmentP105: 1972-1990P223: 1991-2005 Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

  4. Elementary Enrollment TrendShoreline District K-6 Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

  5. Middle School Enrollment TrendShoreline District (Grades 7-8) Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

  6. High School Enrollment TrendShoreline District (Grades 9-12) Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

  7. Shoreline’s Pattern is Somewhat Similar to Other Districts • Demographic trends in births and migration are affecting all Districts in the county. • Smaller birth cohorts have led to declines in elementary enrollments • Net population gains from people moving in and out of the county have been smaller in recent years Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

  8. King County Public Schools Enrollment Trend Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

  9. King County Public SchoolsElementary Enrollment Trend Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

  10. King County Districts: Change in Enrollment1991 to 1997 Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

  11. King County Districts: Change in Enrollment1997-2003 Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

  12. King County K-12 Public School Enrollment Growth More growth in the last 2 years than in the prior 6 years. Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

  13. Puget Sound Public School Enrollment Net Change: King, Kitsap, Pierce, Snohomish Combined Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

  14. Private School Enrollment King County K-12 Note: 2003 Private school data from OSPI excludes some schools that are traditionally included thus skewing the trend. For this reason 2003 data is omitted from the chart. Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

  15. Demographic Trends

  16. King County Births, Population Gains from Migration and Shoreline EnrollmentPopulation Estimates from OFM Births trending down Births trending up Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

  17. King County BirthsPercent of Cohort Enrolled in Shoreline 5 Years Later Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

  18. Projected County Births and Shoreline’s Share of the Cohort Projected Births Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

  19. King County PopulationChart Also Shows the Population in the Shoreline Service area as a Percent of the Total King County Population Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

  20. King County Population ForecastBased on OFM IntermediateSeriesChart Also Shows the Projected Change in the Population in the Shoreline Service Area as a Percent of the Projected King County Population Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

  21. Shoreline School DistrictPopulation Estimates & ProjectionsHigh Growth Population ProjectionEstimates and Projections Based on:Data from OFM, PSRC, Census & the King County Growth Report Avg. House-hold Size = 2.53 Avg. House-hold Size = 2.51 Avg. House-hold Size = 2.42 Avg. House-hold Size = 2.37 Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

  22. New Home Trends in Shoreline(Data from the New Home Trends Database) • Approximately 650 new construction housing units have been sold in the District in the past 5-7 years. • About 500 of these units were in multi-family complexes (apartments, condos, townhomes) • Of the approximately 500 multi-family units listed as sold in New Home Trends, approximately 300 were conversions of apartments to condos or townhomes (132 were recently converted in the Echo Lake service area) • Development has been concentrated to the west of I-5, especially single-family home development. Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

  23. Projections

  24. Projecting the Future • Population in the Shoreline District likely to grow between now and 2020. • The District population as a percentage of the county population will continue to shrink. • Housing units are expected to increase but the average household size will decline (generally indicates fewer children). • County births are expected to be relatively stable between now and 2010 and are expected to increase between 2010 and 2020. • Birth cohorts and the population trends are the best predictors of future enrollment. Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

  25. Future Enrollment • District will enroll a smaller share of future birth cohorts. • K enrollment was 3.46% of county births in 1991 • K enrollment was 2.85% of county births in 2005 • Percent will range between 2.8% and 2.6% between now and 2020 with a gradual decline over time. • Share of King County K-12 growth will decline over time • 4.3% in 1991 • 3.5% to 3.7% projected by 2020 • The Low, Medium and High forecasts differ in their assumptions regarding the District’s share of future K-12 population growth in King County. Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

  26. King County K-12 Public School Enrollment Projection Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

  27. Shoreline School District Enrollment ProjectionOctober Headcount Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

  28. Projected Change by Level2005-2010 (Low, Medium, and High Projection) Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

  29. Service Area Trends and Projections

  30. Single Family Development Projects:1998-2005 (New Home Trends) Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

  31. Shorewood/Einstein TrendsNet Enrollment Change Between Oct-97 and Oct-05PSRC Census Estimates show a net gain of approximately 800 residents in these areas since the 2000 Census Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

  32. Shorecrest/Kellogg TrendsNet Enrollment Change Between Oct-97 and Oct-05PSRC Census estimates show a gain of approximately 400 residents in these areas since the 2000 Census Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

  33. Projected Enrollment Change by School Sept_06 to Oct_12Headcount Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

  34. Summary • Enrollment is expected to continue to decline over the next 5-7 years. • Enrollment should start to grow between 2010 and 2020 as births and population increase in the county (the natural cycle of K-12 enrollment). • Middle and high school enrollments will show a declining pattern over the next 5-7 years. • Elementary enrollment should be more stable in the next 5-7 years, though losses will likely continue through 2009. Trends and Projections -- Sept-2006

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