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HMT-DTC Collaboration

HMT-DTC Collaboration. Edward Tollerud (Funded by USWRP). HMT-DTC Collaboration Goals. Implementation and demonstration of new verification capabilities for high-resolution NWP Develop DTC capabilities for ensemble model prediction Data Impact Studies

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HMT-DTC Collaboration

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  1. HMT-DTC Collaboration Edward Tollerud (Funded by USWRP)

  2. HMT-DTC Collaboration Goals • Implementation and demonstration of new verification capabilities for high-resolution NWP • Develop DTC capabilities for ensemble model prediction • Data Impact Studies • Impact studies of model physics and parameterizations relevant to HMT research

  3. HMT-DTC-USWRP: Common Goals

  4. Major Accomplishments for FY 2009 • Demonstration of MET-based real-time QPF verification for WRF ensemble forecasts during the HMT West Winter Exercise (10/2009-4/2010) • Retrospective MODE-based analyses of Pacific atmospheric river (AR) observations and forecasts • MET utilities to facilitate regionalized verification at RFC and basin scales

  5. Major Accomplishments for FY 2009

  6. Major Accomplishments for FY 2009

  7. Major Accomplishments for FY 2009 MODE Object Comparison of GFS Forecasts with SSM/I Observation for 25 February, 2004 (Clear Cut Case) 72h 48h 24h SSM/I Area=369 Area=312 Area=306 Area=127 72 h 48 h 24 h SSM/I Wally Clark

  8. Major Accomplishments for FY 2009 John Halley Gotway, Huiling Yuan, 10/1/2009

  9. Proposed Activities for FY 2010 • Expand and maintain real-time QPF verification demonstration system and analyze results • Develop and assess prototype MODE-based spatial verification techniques to verify Eastern Pacific Atmospheric River events in near-real-time • Addition of new ensemble-based probabilistic techniques to the MET, including spatial ensemble verification prototypes

  10. Anticipated Major Accomplishments for FY 2010 • Conference paper(s) and report summarizing WRF ensemble model performance during HMT-West 2009-2010 Winter exercise • Added capability in MET to compute new ensemble-based probabilistic methods including the RPS and CRPS for QPF and PQPF verification • Evaluation of diagnostic experiments to assess the impact of verification dataset choices on verification results

  11. Resource Requirements

  12. DTC/HWT Collaboration Tara Jensen

  13. What is the HWT? The mutual interests of forecasters from the SPC, researchers from NSSL, and collocated joint research partners from CIMMS inspired testbed formation. NOAA National Severe Storms Lab (NSSL) NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) NOAA Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Other Collaborators OU - Cooperative Institute forMesoscale Meteorological Studies (CIMMS) BRINGING RESEARCHto FORECAST OPERATIONS

  14. HWT Spring Experiment Goal: • Give forecasters first-hand look at the latest research concepts and products • Immerse researchers in the challenges, needs, and constraints of front-line forecasters Approach: • Forecast teams gather in Norman each week from late April to early June. • Each day consists of: • Daily Briefing • Evaluate Previous Day’s Forecast • Selection of Current Day’s Forecast Area • Forecasters split into 2 teams to predict Chance of Severe Wx Years 2000 2005 2001 2007 2002 2008 2003 2009 2004 2010

  15. Motivation for DTC/HWT Collaboration • One of the recommendations from the 2007 External Review of DTC • Initial focus • Introduction of objective evaluation into HWT • Verification of storm-scale prediction (<= 4km) for severe weather • Expanded focus • Evaluation of ensemble forecasts and post-processing • Verification of storm-scale prediction (<= 4km) for SPC aviation weather • Provides DTC with prominent role in the direct infusion of research models and evaluation into operational environment • Exploration of how forecasters can effectively use objective verification

  16. DTC/HWT Collaboration Goals • Supplement HWT Spring Experiment subjective assessments • Provide objective evaluation of experimental forecasts contributed to Spring Experiment • Expose the forecasters and researchers to both traditional and new approaches for evaluating forecasts • Assist HWT in addressing model improvement problems and investigating other research topics

  17. Major Accomplishments for FY 2009 • Implementation of a near real-time evaluation system for • 1 hr Accumulated Precipitation • Composite Reflectivity • Assess impact of radar assimilation on short-term forecast using both: • Traditional Methods – grid to grid statistics • Spatial Methods – object oriented evaluation • Education and Outreach • DTC staff participation during every week of Spring Experiment (SE) 2009 • Presentation at WAF/NWP Conference, Poster at WRF User’s Workshop

  18. SE 2009 Evaluation Question: How does radar assimilation impact 0-12hr forecast? • Composite reflectivity and 1-hr Accum. Precip. Forecasts • NSSL NMQ-Q2 observed fields • 3 high-resolution models • CAPS 4km SSEF control(with radar assimilation) • CAPS 4km SSEF perturbation (no radar assimilation) • HRRR 3km (different radar assimilation)

  19. Preliminary 2009 Results RESULTS: Radar assimilation appears to improve 0-6hr skill scores Lack of clear difference in skill scores during 6-12 hr lead times suggests model physics taking over Radar 20dBZ No Radar20dBZ Results were aggregated over Spring Experiment time period and the median values are plotted

  20. 14 May 2009 Init: 00 UTC Spatial Thresh: 30dBZ High Impact Display allowed HWT to identify phase and convective mode errors Still working on how to quantify objectively No Radar FCST OBJ OBS OBJ Radar Forecast Field Observed Field Objects

  21. Proposed Activities for FY 2010 • Expand evaluation to include all 20 members of the CAPS ensemble – retain evaluation of HRRR • Have DTC staff available at SE to introduce methods and discuss objective evaluation • Include HWT requirements in METviewer (database and display system) beta version. • Generalize system architecture to allow for retrospective studies. • Support HWT goals by expanding evaluation to include one or two aviation related variables.

  22. Anticipated Major Accomplishments for FY 2010 • Report on objective evaluation of impact of radar assimilation on 0-12hr. • Install beta METviewerat HWT. • Retrospective testing and evaluation system developed. • DTC staff participation during each week of Spring Experiment 2010. • Manuscript submitted to AMS Weather and Forecasting journal.

  23. Resource Requirements

  24. MET Development *Tressa Fowler discussed earlier DTC Ensemble Testbed *ZoltanTothwill discuss next etc…

  25. DTC ENSEMBLE TESTBED(DET) Zoltan Toth and Tara Jensen

  26. Historical Overview • Global ensemble forecasting operational at NCEP since 1992 • Mesoscale ensemble since 2000 • Recognition of need for / value of ensembles by community • NRC Report on Forecast Uncertainty – 2007 • NWS response to NRC report • Forecast Uncertainty (NFUSE) program & decision support initiative • Tri-agency (NOAA, Navy, US Air Force) initiative • National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) • Weather Enterprise response to NRC Report • AMS Ad Hoc Committee on Forecast Uncertainty (ACUF) STRONG COMMUNITY INTEREST

  27. National Workshop On Mesoscale Probabilistic Prediction • Held at NCAR, Sept. 2009 • Organized by DTC • Well attended by ensemble community (60+ attendees) • Academia, agencies, private sector, international invitees • Assessed current state of operations & research related to mesoscale ensembles • Invited and contributed presentations • Working Group discussions aimed at developing roadmap • Drawing on ongoing research (THORPEX), agency (NUOPC) & community (ACUF) planning & activities • White paper being drafted • Will be valuable advice & resource for DTC

  28. Formation of DET in FY2010 Confluence of necessary ingredients • Need • Strong interest from both community & agencies • Knowledge base • Roadmap from Sept 2009 Workshop • Opportunity • Increase in funding for DTC from NOAA • Initiative • DTC Director’s Office sets planning process in motion (Oct 09)

  29. Goal of DET • “Provide an environment in which extensive testing and evaluation of ensemble-related techniques developed by the NWP community can be conducted such that the results are immediately relevant to the operational centers (e.g., NCEP/EMC and AFWA)” • Initial focus on mesoscales

  30. Major Activities for Yr-1 • Form DTC Ensemble Advisory Panel (DEAP) • Establish DET infrastructure – 70% effort in FY10 • Codes/scripts from operational centers for • Distribution to community use • Use as benchmark in testing new methods developed by community • Test & evaluate new methods developed by community – 30% • Links with other testbeds / programs using ensemble approach

  31. Yr-1 Task – Form DTC Ensemble Advisory Panel (DEAP) • Purpose • DEAP will provide advice to DET on • Software and hardware infrastructure necessary and desirable for the testing of new ensemble-related methods developed by the community • Selection and prioritization of ensemble-related methods to be tested by DTC prior to their potential transition to operations • Proposed membership • Cliff Mass (UW), Brian Colle (SUNY), Bill Gallus (Univ in Illinois), David Stauffer (Penn State Univ), Chris Snyder (NCAR), Evan Kucera (AFWA), Craig Bishop (NRL), David Bright (BPA), Tony Eckel (NWS/OST?), Jun Du (NCEP/EMC), Russ Schneider (NCEP/SPC), Mike Brennan (NCEP/TPC), Zoltan Toth (ESRL/GSD)

  32. Required Characteristics of DET Infrastructure • Compatibility with NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) • Preparing for future use of ESMF by agencies • Portability • To serve diverse user base utilizing various computational platforms • Community • Different agencies • DTC (limited computational resources) • Modularity • To facilitate testing of new community developed components against operational benchmark

  33. Yr-1 Tasks for Infrastructure Development • Ensemble configuration module • Design, basic development • Initial perturbations module • Design, basic development • Model perturbations module • Design • Statistical post-processing module • Design • Probabilistic product generation module • Assess available tools; Design • Verification module • Assess/augment MET

  34. Yr-1 Tasks – Test & Evaluation • Develop test/evaluation protocol for • Assessing scientific value of community contributions • Initial assessment of readiness for transition to operations • Initial testing of HMT or HWT or HFIP ensembles • Engage with broader ensemble forecast user community

  35. Anticipated Major Accomplishments for FY 2010 • Establish DTC Ensemble Advisory Panel (DEAP) and engage in DET planning activities • Define DET infrastructure requirements, review existing tools and software packages for suitability for incorporation, design ensemble modules, and define priorities for module development • Complete basic development of two modules, including preliminary testing to assure functionality and portability • Establish formal test and evaluation protocol for DET and demonstrate by applying to an available ensemble data set

  36. Resource Requirements

  37. DTC & NEMS NOAA Environmental Modeling System Laurie Carson

  38. DTC NEMS Motivation • NCEP will use the NEMS framework for their NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction) capabilities • GFS • NMM-B • FIM • DTC facilitates operational and research collaborations with the goal of accelerating the transfer of new science and technology from research into operations • WRF-NMM • WPP (WRF Post Processor) • GSI • HWRF

  39. DTC NEMS Goals Near Term • Define community software goals for the NEMS modeling framework and operational model configurations • Gain expertise in the NEMS framework, by participating in and assisting the on-going development, with a community support focus Long Term • Support the operational NEMS to the community; Provide research results and capabilities to operational forecast systems

  40. Proposed Activities for FY 2010 • Participate in the Global Interoperability Program • Attended kick-off meeting Nov 5-6, 2009 • http://gip.noaa.gov/ • Build a foundation of DTC expertise with the NEMS software

  41. Proposed Activities for FY 2010 Define community software goals for NEMS Collaborate with EMC (Environmental Modeling Center) to: • Hold a working group meeting • DTC transition process for moving from WRF software infrastructure to NEMS-based packages • Timing of the transition • Potential overlap between WRF and NEMS with respect to community support • Maintaining a connection with the broad research community. • Draft a code management plan • DTC NEMS operations to research (O2R) transition plan

  42. Anticipated Major Accomplishments for FY 2010: DTC NEMS • Define DTC NEMS community software goals and timeline • Develop DTC expertise in NEMS software • Establish DTC NEMS operations to research (O2R) transition plan

  43. Resource Requirements

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