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HMT QPE Plan

HMT QPE Plan. Coordinate QPE activities across HMT partner organizations Includes NOAA, NASA, and academic institutions Develop strategy to deliver “best possible” QPE to NOAA’s National Water Center 3 types of activities

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HMT QPE Plan

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  1. HMT QPE Plan • Coordinate QPE activities across HMT partner organizations • Includes NOAA, NASA, and academic institutions • Develop strategy to deliver “best possible” QPE to NOAA’s National Water Center • 3 types of activities • Baseline evaluations (“water now”): Multi-sensor Precipitation Estimator (MPE), National Mosaic and Multi-sensor QPE (NMQ) Q2, Mountain Mapper • Algorithm improvement (“water next”): Vertical Profile of Reflectivity (VPR), intelligent integration of radar, gauge, satellite, and model data, adaptive Z-R selection • Incorporation of next generation sensor technologies and design optimal networks (“water future”): CASA radar networks, observations system simulation experiments (OSSEs), etc

  2. APPEND Strategy for QPE Activities • APPEND: AdaPtivePrecipitation Estimation Network Design • Evaluate QPE systems in different topographic/regional settings • Improve understanding of sensor networks, modeling tools, data assimilation in current QPE systems • “Smart” Integration of QPE from ground and satellite sensor,s as well as model QPF • Platform for incorporating new algorithms and future technologies • Design system to test new algorithms and future technologies • Guide decisions for NWC about QPE forcing in complex terrain

  3. HMT QPE Activities • Evaluate and improve radar QPE in CA watersheds • In partnership with NSSL (MRMS) and Office of Hydrologic Development • Microphysical analysis leading to improvements in vertical profile of reflectivity correction and Z-R selection – American River Basin • Evaluation of QPE products in Russian River Basin (on-going) • Evaluation includes spatial pattern and amounts • Impact of sensors to resulting QPE • In partnership with NSSL (MRMS) • Evaluation of radar QPE in Colorado Front Range (on-going) • Warm season convection • Sensitivity of radar QPE in distributed hydrologic model (in partnership with NCAR) http://hmt.noaa.gov/

  4. QPE Accomplishment: Assessment of Radar to QPE in American River Basin RMS Error Statistics I. Problem: QPE dependent on input data III. QPE Analysis Combined Q2-Gauge QPE Which analysis is “correct”??? • Merged radar-gauge QPE shows best performance (RMS, CC, and bias) • Results suggest that radar has a small, but positive impact on QPE in the ARB o BOWMAN DAM Gauge + o o 48-hr accum: 30 Dec 2005 – 1 Jan 2006 TRUCKEE o o GRASS VALLEY + + o Radar-Gauge Mosaic Gauge-Radar DMIP 2 ‘Basic QPE’ Radar + o Observed Flow Image courtesy of D. Kitzmiller o Gauge-Only ROBS PEAK Image courtesy of D. Kitzmiller IV. Impact on Hydrologic Runoff II. Methodology to Evaluate QPE Products Image courtesy of M. Smith Radar Only (88D) • Input gauges include NCDC and CDEC • References gauges are HMT and CDEC • Input radar includes NMQ Q2 and Stage II • All data input into MPE • Compare QPE: gauge-only, radar-only, combined radar-gauge • Evaluate sensitivity of hydrologic model (HL-RDHM) to QPE • All simulations predict peak runoff too early • Combined radar-gauge QPE produces simulation that is closest to observed Statistics for 1-H values REFERENCE GAUGE + Image courtesy of D. Kitzmiller o INPUT GAUGE

  5. Radar-Only Gage-Adj_Radar Mountain-Mapper Gage-Only

  6. Incorporate HMT and ALERT gauge data into verification analysis

  7. 2012 HMT QPF Activities • Experimental real-time national ensemble (~10 km) • Movable nest within the national ensemble (~3 km) • EMC and WRF microphysics validation • New reforecast database using the GFS • National extreme QPF performance base lining • Spatial verification techniques as applied to atmospheric rivers • Principle moisture sources and methods of transport in HMT-SE • QPE product development for input to NWP models • Winter Weather Experiment (HPC-HMT) • Spring Experiment in the Hazardous Weather Testbed (HPC-HMT) • AR Retrospective Forecasting Experiment

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