GSA Expo 2009

1. GSA Expo 2009 Industrial Analysis: An Integral Part of Acquisition Strategy Roudy Romulus roudy.romulus@dcma.mil Economist Defense Contract Management Agency

2. The Agenda • What is industrial analysis? • Why it is an integral part of any major acquisition strategy? • Department of Defense Industrial Analysis – case studies • Domestic Automotive Industry and DoD Ground Systems Sector • Mine Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicle • Steel and Specialty Metals Pricing Trends • Economic, Industry and Financial Monitoring • Department of Defense’s acquisition policies for an effective industrial base

3. Industrial Analysis “DoD-wide industrial assessments evaluate and address changes and issues in key system, subsystem, component, and/or material providers that supply many programs, and affect competition, innovation, and product availability.” - Office of the Deputy Undersecretary of Defense (Industrial Policy) Governing Doctrines • United States Code: Title 10 - Sub-title A - Part IV -Service, Supply, & Procurement • Chapter 144 - Major Defense Acquisition Programs • Sec. 2440 Technology and Industrial Base Plans • Chapter 148 - National Defense Technology and Industrial Base, Defense Reinvestment, and Defense Conversion; Subchapter II - Policies and Planning • Sec. 2503 National Defense Program for Analysis of the Technology and Industrial Base • Sec. 2504 Annual Report to Congress - • http://www.acq.osd.mil/ip/docs/annual_ind_cap_rpt_to_congress-2009.pdf • Sec. 2505 National Technology and Industrial Base; Periodic Defense Capability Assessment • DoD Directive 5000.60 – Defense Industrial Capabilities Assessments • DoD Instruction 5000.2 – Operation of the Defense Acquisition Systems • DoD 5000.60-H – Assessing Defense Industrial Capabilities

4. Industrial Analysis – cont. The DoD Industrial Analysis Community • Deputy Undersecretary of Defense (Industrial Policy) • Defense Contract Management Agency • DCMA Industrial Analysis Center • Army, Navy, Air Force Offices of: • Acquisition, Logistics, Technology, Research and Science. • Army, Navy, Air Force Materiel Commands • Defense Logistics Agency

5. Defense Contract Management Agency

6. Industrial Analysis: An Integral Part of Any Major Acquisition Strategy How do we go from the drawing board… X X X X X X … to the battlefield. X X X X

7. Technology Development Engineering & Manf. Development Production & Deployment Operations & Support Pre-Concept Mat’l Solution Analysis Ideas Concept Solution Product Maintenance Industrial Analysis withinAcquisition Strategy The IBA community analyze risks and issue options and recommendations… Assess Manufacturing & Technology Risk Assess Industrial Capability Risk B A C IOC FOC Industrial Capability Assessment Manufacturing Readiness Assessment TechnologyReadiness Assessment …by writing assessments and other analytical reports. Depot Source of Repair Surge Analysis Surge Analysis Defense Infrastructure Protection Other Acquisition and Procurement Impact Analytics

8. Automotive Industry and DoD Ground Systems • Tasking from DUSD(IP) - Feb. 2006 • “Mitigate risk to defense programs by conducting an industrial capability assessment on the Domestic Automotive Industry.” • “How much and where are the exposure and connectivity of defense programs” • Research Process • Identified five prime integrators, identified their critical suppliers, sent out questionnaires, walk the plant floors, analyze the marketplace, interview company officers, identify manufacturing trends • Issues & Findings - Jan. 2007 • DoD Ground Systems Sector is more connected to the Trucking and Heavy Equipment Sector and has limited exposure to the Big Three Supplier Base. • Military Engines EPA National Security Exemption • Erosion of critical skill sets and reduction in training – (i.e., welders, co-ops) • Obsolescence Management issues • Confliction of two policy goals, ITAR and COTS

9. Automotive Industry and DoD Ground Systems – cont. • Update - Nov. 2008 • “Pentagon officials and defense analysts last week said the potential collapse of a U.S. automaker would little affect the American military” – John T. Bennett and Antonie Boessenkool, Nov. 24,2008, “DoD Insulated From U.S. Automakers’ Woes”, Defense News • Update - June 2009 • General Motors declares bankruptcy and announce trade debt to the following creditors:

10. MRAP Prime Integrators Critical Subcontractors Structural Control Systems Armor Components, Kits Armor Components, Fabr Auto & Chassis Intg. Armored Glass Armored Steel Diesel EngineTransmissionTransfer Case Transfer Case Bearings Wiring Harness Alternator/Vltg Regulator AxlesWheels, Rims Wheels, Run Flat Tires Air Conditioner Suspension Electrical Powertrain Mine Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicle The Joint Requirements Oversight Council requested the procurement of… Nov ‘06 4,000 vehicles Feb ’07 8,000 vehicles June’07 16,000 vehicles The Tasking – “I request that the Defense Contract Management Agency’s Industrial Analysis Center perform an ICA on the MRAP prime contractors and their critical subcontractors to determine their production capacity and delivery capabilities in support of program requirements” – Deputy Under Secretary of Defense (Industrial Policy) – Feb 2007

11. Mine Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicle Summary Data: 9 Primes 63 Suppliers Analysis: Validation Integration Interpretation Quantitative Comparative Trend Risk: Armor Plate, Armor Kits, Capsule Manufacturing, Automotive and Chassis Integration, Tires, Axles, Transfer Cases, Bearings, and Final Vehicle Assembly Mitigation: Analyzed alternate suppliers capacities and capabilities Capital investment Updated Specifications Adjusted Acquisition Strategy Make Presentation

12. Mine Resistant Ambush Protected VehicleNotional Supply Commonality Matrix* * Company names have been altered to protect proprietary information

13. Major Choke Points Automotive Assy & Chassis Integration Major issue: The stress of the initial requirement of 4,000 vehicles to over 15,000 vehicles caused the supply base to plan production beyond their initial production capacity and capabilities. Certain lead times and learning curves could not keep pace with DoD’s requirements level in a 12 month time frame. Solution: Prioritize MRAP vehicle requirements by placing the program “first in line”, throughout the supply chain. Advance funding to purchase equipments, materials and labor. Revise the 12 month time frame to 16 months. Seek out more non-traditional DoD firms to enter the Ground Vehicles / MRAP industrial base. Tires Major issue: Not enough tire molds for MRAP tires. Solution: Advance funding to Michelin - the DoD tire supplier - to buy more tire molds. Seek out Goodyear to enter the MRAP industrial base. Mine Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicle Vehicle Requirements vs. Capacity DoD wanted vehicle production to ramp up to 1,200 vehicles in ten months. However, the “Status Quo” suggested that Industry can only ramp up to 977. Tires

14. Mine Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicle MRAP Vehicle Major Choke Points DoD Q &T Steel Requirements • Quench and Tempered Steel • Major Issue – Demand greater than Supply. Five heat treating lines in North America, with only two major lines dedicated to DoD programs. Moreover DoD armored steel must follow a certain process of heat treating that is very time consuming. • Solutions - • Set up a DPAS PAIR Task Force • Relax the strict heat treating process to reduce TAKT time. • Quantified and prioritized total DoD armor steel requirements. • Place a D/X rating on the MRAP program. • Request a Special Waiver to purchase armor steel from outside North America. • Seek out Non-heat treating manufacturers (i.e., specialty steel manufacturers) - whose products have the same or stronger ballistic properties. Global Capacity

15. Steel and Specialty Metals Pricing Trends • The following workers must maintain awareness of increasing steel and specialty metals pricing trends: • Cost Analysts • Program Managers • Logisticians “The Pentagon is monitoring the markets and reported the dip in metal prices ….but a top defense official …said…that no one at the Pentagon has flagged the potential to get a better deal because no one has the experience to do so. At one point in time, we did have those kinds of capabilities,” said Shay Assad, the pentagon’s director of defense procurement and acquisition policy. “But during the 1990s, the pentagon’s contacting work force was scaled back...that kind of capability does not exist within the department today.” – Jen DiMascio, May 7, 2009, “Pentagon misses out on big savings”, The Politico Source: American Metal Market and Macquarie Capital Group

16. Economic, Industry and Financial Monitoring The Defense Industry does not operate in isolation. It is a dynamic industry that reacts and responds to economic, industrial, financial and public policy matters. Industrial Analysis requires the constant monitoring and analysis of those dynamics, so that the Defense Department continues to pursuit the most efficient programs.

17. Economic, Industry and Financial Monitoring Industrial Analysis requires the monitoring of Capacity Utilization – at the macroeconomic level thru the company level. Capacity Utilization is an attempt to capture the concept of sustainable maximum output – the greatest level of output a plant can maintain within the framework of a realistic work schedule, after factoring in normal downtime and assuming sufficient availability of inputs to operate the capital in place. Source: U.S. Federal Reserve

18. DoD’s Acquisition Policies for an Effective Reliable and Resilient Defense Industrial Base When the Department has to deal with shortcomings in the industrial base, it has a wide variety of tools with which to promote competition, innovation, and product availability: Directly fund innovation in its science and technology accounts, and encourage industry to do the same via their independent research and development accounts. Induce innovation by employing acquisition strategies that encourage competition at all levels of contract performance. Use contract provisions to preclude the ability of contractors to favor in-house capabilities or long-term teammate products over more innovative solutions available elsewhere. Block exclusive contractor teaming arrangements that effectively reduce the number of suppliers in a given market, especially if the teammates are dominant in a particular market sector. Establish restrictions within the Defense Federal Acquisition Regulation Supplement (DFARS) on the use of foreign products for certain defense applications, when necessary to ensure the survival of domestic suppliers required to sustain military readiness

19. Industrial Analysis Summary “…this is London calling.” • “The leaders who, for many years, have been at the head of the French armies have formed a government. This government, alleging the defeat of our armies, has made contact with the enemy in order to stop the fighting. It is true, we were, we are, overwhelmed by the mechanical, ground and air forces of the enemy. Infinitely more than their number, it is the tanks, the airplanes, the tactics of the Germans which are causing us to retreat. It was the tanks, the airplanes, the tactics of the Germans that surprised our leaders to the point of bringing them to where they are today. "But has the last word been said? Must hope disappear? Is defeat final? No! "Believe me, I who am speaking to you with full knowledge of the facts, and who tells you that nothing is lost for France. The same means that overcame us can bring us victory one day. For France is not alone! She is not alone! She is not alone! She has a vast Empire behind her. She can align with the British Empire that holds the sea and continues the fight. She can, like England, use without limit the immense industry of the United States.” - General Charles De Gaulle, June 18, 1940 BBC Radio Appeal to France